9/2/2023

  9  LAD   The Super Derby       

$200.000    3yo    1 1/8m  Dirt   122lbs +penalties

The luster of The Super Derby seem to be gone, as it’s just a listed race now, losing its graded status… the purse has shrunk, but we did get a nice group of 3yo’s set to go a mile and an eighth on the main track.  I’ll take Alive as the top choice here today.  He’s run well for this outfit since the private purchase… but all bets are off on him if it turns up wet.  I think we are safe from that, so I look for a big effort from the rail.   Wrapped State bounced like a bad check at SAR last out… and last is the key word as he was last of twelve in the Dandy (GII)… let’s draw a line threw that one and look for a turn-around and a big effort here today.     

Here’s The Field –

He’s a live wire… changed hands back in April and has two wins and a second from four starts for this outfit.  He was second in the Lexington (GIII) then won the Sir Barton on PRK Day.  You can excuse that sixth in the Winn (GIII) as he doesn’t seem to like the wet going… and won (DH) the Loseth at HST in his most recent… he’s the probable favorite. 

Only a maiden win for this one, and that was some time ago… show a couple of fourths on his form, but other than that, he’s been up the track in most of his recent stats, including a tenth in the Dandy (GII) last out. 

A mixed bag for this one as he broke maiden at FG, won an Alw race right after than, then was sixth in the TX Derby.  Came back to be second in the Dwyer (GIII) but was last of twelve in the Dandy (GII), so I’m just not sure who shows up for this one. 

Was struggling vs. graded types so they dropped him into an OptAlw race, it came up muddy and he splashed home like a champ going wire to wire and scored by five lengths at SAR.  Was it back to the main track from the grass or the rain?  Watch him. 

Still looking for his first win of the ’23 season, but does have a pair of runner up efforts, including a near miss two back vs Alw types at WO.  He’s going to need to find his absolute best to be part of this one. 

The big barn tagged this one from a $20.000 event back in Jan and has a pair of wins and a pair runner up efforts, but this is his first swing at black-type company.  I’d normally write one like this off… but…

Got his first win of the year vs. low-end Alw company at FP, where he just trounced by four in quick time.  Still, this is far saltier than those, so he’s going to need to find a big effort to run with this bunch. 

Broke maiden back in Mar for his only score, but was second in the Ruby (GIII), third in the CA Derby and third in the Jersey Shore at MTH, last out.  His best should put him in the middle of things. 

COZMAN   1 / 3             Willie’s Green Card     8 / 7                

Categories: STAKES ARTICLES, Ungraded