The WV Derby – Grade III
MNR Race #18 1 1/8m Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $500.000 For Three Year Olds.

We may only have a small field here but we also see a keen contest between the top performing stables with the only exception being the withdrawal of Contradiction as his trainer realizes he would be struggling against the top two in this race.
Here is how they line up for what could be a tactical affair:

1          Oleg             Arindel            Stein J

Started off the year pretty well being competitive in the Risen Star but his KYD hopes faded away with two poor efforts in the LA and AR Derby’s. He took the field in the Preakness but ran last beaten ten lengths and things seemed to be going from bad to worse. Things however seem to have taken a turn for the better just recently as he managed a win in the Dwyer last time beating Rowdy Rb by a length. Now on that TC form he wouldn’t have a chance against the best of these but a few months can be like a decade here at HRP and so much can change ad this colt seems to have gone in the right direction. A good draw to get among it today.

2       Contradiction          Aer Stables            – Scratch –

Ran away

3          Rowdy Rb           Mb Stables           Hernandez R M

A real consistent sort and whilst he may look like the second string from the stable he wont go down without a fight a has a good draw to give his best. Though he has never raced this far before his running style suggests he will get the trip and he wont have to find much improvement to be a winning chance.

4          Evergreen          Mb Stables             Cedillo A

After wins in the Sham Stakes, the Risen Star and the LA Derby he was looking a good chance in the KYD but a terrible draw and a bad start saw him quickly out of it and he trailed in a hugely disappointing nineteenth. He was better in the Stephens on his return but the trip was a little sharp and was then given a chance on grass in the BEL Derby but again threw a terrible race to be twelfth.
There is a big win in this horse, his works and his early form tell us that but he has been so bad in those big races that it is hard to be confident in how he will run here.

5          Baller Alert            D J C Racing Stables         Sanchez M J

He ran third in both the LA Derby and the Coolmore Lexington and was bought for $300 after those efforts. I have seen a good few sold for good money that have performed badly afterwards and this was another as he ran in both the Preakness and the BEL but was very well beaten in both. I think this is more his level but he needs to run better than his best to beat the top two.

6         Penalty Shot             Maxmillion Farm            Pyfer J

Lightly raced this one has had some talk about him since his maiden win and for the most part has proved worthy of that talk. A good win in the Ruby Stakes he went to the Preakness with some strong works and there was plenty of money on him before he ran a very poor eleventh. That was a bitter disappointment but he bounced back in the IND Derby last time and very nearly made all to defeat the prolific winner proud Crown. A repeat of that effort would make him favorite to win this race.

7         Tequila Rise         Nakamura Stables         Hernandez C J

This one hasn’t won a race all year but when you look at his form you would have to say he is probably near the top of this field. His third in the Haskell last time was superb and came on the heels of place efforts in the SUN Derby, The Peter Pan and the Affirmed all efforts that any horse in this field would be happy about. The wide draw wont make things easy and he needs to find a way to finish off his races but he looks the safest chance in the field.

SUMMARY

Well there’s a couple of talking horses here in Evergreen and Penalty Shot but i rather like the quiet one on the outside in Tequila Rise.

Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES