April 17, 2015

The Grade II Distaff Handicap starts the long run to the Grade I BC F&M Sprint but being so early in the season, there are plenty of chances for fillies and mares to step into the spotlight and that is why only four horses are entered to run the six-furlongs over the AQU main track. A few Grade I winners have taken this event over the years with Pacific Volcano and American Idol amongst its first winners but this year, there are no real superstars looming on the horizon and it will take a solid effort from any of the four to prove best in this critical $200.000 race.

1-Danzig Ghost (Four-year-old gray filly / Owner-D J C Racing Stables)

Owner D J C Racing Stables will try to go back to back in the Distaff Handicap after scoring with Tight Policy last year but in Danzig Ghost, you have a four-year-old filly who stepped up int the F&M Sprint last year but has failed to show those efforts in three seasonal starts and comes in off a tiring fifth against similar rivals at GP. Her speed ratings tower over others in the field and she does look like the lone speed but there is a big amount of doubt as to her ability at this point and while she might be the favourite, she is not the lock she once could have been.

Analysis-Speed and talent are there but doubts loom

Fair Odds-3/1

2-Birthday Shot (Four-year-old gray filly / Owner-Ubetracing.com)

Claimed for $50.000 from her last start, Birthday Shot will try to earn all of that purchase price back with a win in the Distaff and off two big wins over small fields, she certainly has the credentials to go with this level of field and might be sitting the perfect trip off the inside speed. Her speed ratings are solid and she knows how to run fast times but the class might be the deciding factor and while she is lightly raced, there is potential there and if her new owner can harness it, she could have an exciting year ahead.

Analysis-Interesting claim has claims on victory

Fair Odds-5/1

3-Swimwear (Four-year-old bay filly / Owner-Threshold)

Minor stakes winner Swimwear has been one of the most consistent horses at HRP in recent months, with six wins and a second in her last seven starts, and coming off a stakes win at GG, she looks to be a huge factor to sit back, pounce and rocket past rivals down the lane. Her speed ratings are right up there with the best and she certainly knows how to win so look for her to continue that hot streak and down the line, establish herself as one of the top F&M sprinters at HRP.

Analysis-Big winning streak should continue today

Fair Odds-8/5

4-Eye Of The Beholder (Four-year-old gray filly / Owner-Sanny Village)

Eye Of The Beholder has faced some tough company in her time and gets back into the Graded Stakes ranks here but the prospects of her handling this six-furlong distance as well as others make her a longer shot that she should be. If this was seven-furlongs, she might be able to use her outside stall to get into a comfortable rhythm but others will be gearing up early and she needs to time her move just right to prove victorious.

Analysis-Good filly to be at her best

Fair Odds-8/1

Overall

A winning streak battles a tested rival in the Grade II Distaff Handicap at AQU and Swimwear looks to continue her hot hand in a very reachable field. Three straights win and a break in the weights are tough to ignore and while Danzig Ghost is a very capable winner, she does not have the recent form to make her the favourite and that will leave her vulnerable unless she runs back to the BC second.

Prediction

Win-Swimwear (8/5)

Place-Danzig Ghost (3/1)

Show-Birthday Shot (5/1)

Triple T Racing

Categories: Grade II