The Withers – Grade III (P3) [KYD]
AQU Race #4 1 1/8m Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $250.000 For Three-Year-Olds.

1 Dunked On Shambo Mb Stables Ortiz I Jr 122 —

It was the first of the inevitable three entries for the owner and the first of three winning chances. On the face of it this one has a bit to find having won just the one from seven, but he does have claims based on a decent mile work time and some fair form at the overnight level. With the advantage of a run this year he carries fitness into this race which is another key factor, and that run wasn’t bad at all finishing strongly to be second in a competitive allowance at FG. He doesn’t seem to have the scope of some of the stables three-year-olds, but he is impossible to write off in an even field.

2 Gymnast Noblepark Ayuso A 122 —

Picked up in the great Smokey Stover lottery for $1.000, this would be a win if the new owner can put this one into the KYD picture. Drawn perfectly that feat is not farfetched at all as this winner of two from three looks to be suited by this trip and ran well enough in the grade one Hopeful to suggest he has what it takes at this level. His works have improvement written all over them and the same jockey takes the reins that won on him last time, plenty of positives give him a good chance.

3 Total Stud Mo Mentum Farm Conner T 122 —

Flying home from the old wide draw trail position last time in the Gun Runner, he has a much better gate today, and I would be expecting a much better effort. His running styles have been played with, and he looks a better closer than on-pacer so expect him to be in mid-pack or worse early on and be running on at the end. With gaps and some race engine favors he could be a factor.

4 Pink Bride Sheffler Stables Pinto M 122 —

This one has the form on the board to be a contender in the KYD qualification process and also has the benefit of a run this year. That run came in the Jerome where he had a few traffic problems from his ace draw but ran in strongly for third and he will be better suited by this draw today. Closing efforts in the LA Futurity and Grey Stakes suggest that may be his most effective running style so things will need to go right for him with a few looking to do the same. Credentials are there, but he will have to improve again to have a winning chance.

5 Legalise D J C Racing Stables Corrales G 122 —

He took a while to get it right winning his maiden on the sixth attempt, but after a good follow up effort when switched to the dirt last time the trainer gave him his chance to take a big step up today. I liked his last work, and he may be one of those dark horses that is about to make a few sit up and watch.

6 Banned Mb Stables Prat F 122 —

The Grey Stakes winner and second from the yard, he disappointed after that super effort to win the Grey, but I feel his deep closing running style may be the main cause of his seeming inconsistency. A brilliant fourth in the grade one Breeders Futurity preceded that Grey Stakes win, so we know he has the ability to win a race like this but his last two have been a bit non-script and he comes here with something to prove. His work after his initial start this year was very good and he has fitness on his side, and I think we may be seeing an effort more akin to his best today.

7 Arch Mb Stables Lezcano J 122 —

The third runner from the stable and the likely pace setter, and that may be key as we seem to have quite a few that will need a strong pace to help with their closing styles. If this one can make the front button the speed off, then he is proven in stakes company and has won like that before so tactically this may be the best of the stable. Apart from the obvious wide gate speed push, I can’t see anything here to take him on so he may just get away with it today.

8 Ref You Def Night Rider Stables Silvera Ru 122 —

Came with a huge late run to win the Gun Runner and that tactic certainly seems to be paying off in the bigger fields this year as the fight for the lead has been fierce after many rumors that the race engine favors the pace. He certainly deserves this chance today after three good efforts since being gelded and set over a longer trip, but there will be a lot of them coming late and he will have to rely on the best run to get home.

9 Used Car Salesman Big Guns Stables Bejarano R 122 —

A good maiden win set him up for a run in the Smarty Jones last time, but he was pretty poor from the outside gate ending up last of the eleven runners. There was no reason other than the draw that he should’ve run that badly so it may pay to give him another chance although another challenging draw puts me off. His recent work suggests he is on good fettle and prior to that run, he was fairly consistent so given some luck he may run better today.

10 Awakening World TwinTowersRacing Beschizza A 122 —

Had a go at turf last year and ran pretty well in the Pilgrim but has been back on the dirt since and has been OK. He was a bit “never dangerous” in the San Vicente last time and will need to step up on that effort but as the only other pace influence in the race and with a wide draw, he may get a favorable position out of the gate which is a certain plus. The owner often seems to come up with one out of the blue and I wonder whether this could be the spoiler in the race.

11 Boss Spearman Wood Duck Stables Saez L 122 —

Another with a bit of early pace he could well find an easy stalk which may be a good place to be from this wide draw. Bought for $150.000 after a good win last time it is clear the stable rates him and there is a lot to like about him not least that his best win came in his first run in a longer race. His works are strong, and he could well be the one to map with the best chance.

12 East Indies Nakamura Stables Gallardo A A 122 —

This is an interesting one as he has never really looked like a longer trip would suit him, but then just sometimes those types can surprise you over longer trips. He has shown speed in his races so would expect him to use the wide gate speed push but then hasn’t looked strong at the end of his races when placed like that so just maybe a new tactic could be tried with him today. His works are strong, and he was a BC runner albeit on the turf so there is clearly ability there and he could be a bit of a surprise package.

SUMMARY

I am just not confident that there is enough pace in this race to give the closers a chance today but then these bigger fields seem beset with a battle for the lead and a late finish picking up the win so my theory may be just that. I think East Indies may run well but the jury is still out on the subject of stamina, and I also like the other wide horse in Boss Spearman who maps to get a good run from his wide gate. Whilst they both may win, I still like Arch to get an easy run on pace and he may just put a break on them coming into the stretch which may be enough to win. The closers, of which there are many with a winning chance, will be rushing late but if any race is going to buck the early season trend it is this one and they may all come too late.

Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES