The MTH Oaks – Grade III
MTH Race #8 1 1/16m Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $150.000 For Fillies Three Years Old.

1 Outside Shot D J C Racing Stables DeCarlo C P

A fair two year old she faced her first test as a three year old in the ungraded Ca Cup Oaks which she won by a half length after a great effort from the widest gate. That win and her subsequent win under Barcelona Farms came on the turf but when she was bought for $120.000 from that trainer by DJC Racing the new owner went back to dirt for her next start. Staying on well she ran third in the DEL Oaks at very long odds and the new owner looks for further vindication for the switch today. Its a similar race but she has a better draw and i would expect her to be right in it at the end.

2 Appealing Ginger The Sidley Stud Ferrer J C

One of the form picks in the race she has raced very well against the best of her age and would certainly rate a big chance here. She won the Honeybee and then finished second in the Gazelle setting her into the KYO field with a strong chance. She was sent to the stalk in that race, somewhere she hasnt been before and she ran well for a long way before weakening to be beaten around two lengths. Whether it was a change of instruction or just one of those race engine things she certainly seems better coming from off the pace and she showed that again last time out when running on nicely to be beatena length in the Summertime oaks. A great draw, good form, she could be the answer in a tricky race.

3 Nuclear Tweet Smokey Stover Esquivel E

If winning form is good form then she is very good indeed winning five of her last six and four in a row. Granted she hasnt been at this level for a while and the last time she was she could only managed sixth in the Davona Dale but she is working like a champion sprinter and stays a mile so she looks a very serious chance in this race froma nice draw. She likes to lead or stalk which shouldnt be a problem although there is a bit of early pace here so her jockey will have to be careful.

4 Really Healthy La Canada Racehorses Diaz H R Jr

A real consistent filly she was only beaten a half length by Nuclear Tweet in the Ladys Secret Stakes and ran well enough when fourth in the Pitcher Stakes last time when she was in rear off a slow pace and had no real chance of making ground. A sound pace will see her at her best and she must go in the boiling pot of possible winners.

5 Bursting Happy Nittany Lion Garcia W A

She has done well at a lower level but this is a big step up for her, another on pace runner she may be the first to crack.

6 Puerto Princesa Paradise Stable Rodriguez A

This is a nice filly too and her run in the IND Oaks last time was top notch when she ran second to Z Command. Her problem here is that she is another who likes to be on pace and being the widest drawn she will either have to go very quickly to get her best position or settle back and run from behind which she hasn’t really done recently. It will be a conundrum for her owner who will need to pick the right instruction and then rely on the race engine to carry it out. If things go her way, she is good enough to win.

7 Dali The Viking Prtex Stable Juarez N

A grade one winning two year old she has struggled a bit this year but has only raced three times and may just need to get some consistent appearances. Bought at auction for $150.000 she gets no favors for her new trainer here getting the visitors draw and her works have been a bit off leaving us with no choice but to pass her over and wait to see if she gets her mojo back.

SUMMARY

This is an interesting tactical race as all the top chances like to go on the speed. I am sure the race engine will sort out one that will get the right trip its just a matter of guessing which one. I think i may go for Outside Shot or Appealing Ginger on the basis that the leading fancies may burn themselves out too early.

Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES