TC of America (Grade 2) (BC)- $250.000 Purse
KEE- For Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward
Six Furlongs on the Dirt
October 3, 2015
A full field of twelve is set to battle for the right to return to this very track in four weeks for the BC Fillies and Mares Sprint. It is a race that recently has been owned by Mb Stables, with that trainer winning the last two races. With four entries in this year’s edition, Mb has certainly made an emphatic statement that he intends to return to the winner’s circle for the third time in a row. Last year, he guided Noble One to a win in the TC of America, and then saw her finish third in the BC. Horses have won this race and the BC before, and in fact, a single horse has done it twice. Point to Royalty, trained by Dynark Stables (the winningest trainer of the stake, with three) won this stake in both 2010 and 2011, and then found her way to victory in the BC race as well both times! The next year, Avery Island saw that the feat would happen in three consecutive years. When they have not won the BC, TC of America winners have fared well in that race more often then not. The ultimate glory will be won here in four weeks, but you have to get there first. Twelve go to the gate with the hope of being there, so let’s take a look at them now!
#1- El Gran Cuffed (D J C Racing Stables, ridden by I Oritz Jr)- This three year old filly by El Gran du Nebraska has flashed a lot of potential, but when entered in graded events, she has not been able to elevate her game. Highlights of her career include winning the ungraded $100.000 Shine Again in August against good company, but her three graded attempts have seen her finish 4th, 6th, and 9th. When she’s on, she can be great, but more then likely the trainer has his greater hopes of winning in the horse starting from the next post.
#2- Distant Cousin (D J C Racing Stables, ridden by J R Velazquez)- Just two weeks ago, Distant Cousin was at PRX for the Grade 1 Cotillion and came up with a disappointing seventh place finish. The quick turnaround here tells me that the trainer knows why that happened, and is not one bit worried about it. Therefore, he needs to have her right back out there with the hopes of picking up some points. She has four so far, thanks to some runs earlier in the year. In January, she was second in the G2 Forward Gal which helps out her point case here. Since then, she has a more impressive win, in the G3 IA Oaks at PRM. In July, she was a respectable third in the sloppy Grade 1 CCA Oaks at SAR. Distant Cousin has potential, but J R Velazquez will have to convince her the race is over at six furlongs.
#3- Bally Z (Diablo Diablo, ridden by An Cruz)- Currently 37th on the BC Fillies and Mares Sprint point leaderboard with 4 points, Bally Z is in the best form of her career right now. Until this summer, Bally Z was a good consistent racehorse, running well in allowance and optional claiming company, but a win in an allowance at LS saw a considerable uptick in her SRF by seven points. Was it a fluke? In her next race, Bally Z convinced us that it was not and even increased her SRF figure more. That was done in her stake debut, the $75.000 Regret at MTH. Keeping with the momentum, she was off to the Grade 2 Prioress and was 2nd to the talented Dead Ant Dead Ant (who is 2nd in points for this BC race). She has never been in this deep of a talented field before but you have to love the run of form she is on right now.
#4- Don’t Stop (Spankys Barn, ridden by M A Pedroza)- At six years of age, she is the oldest mare in the race, and she knows how to find her way to winners circle. Don’t Stop is just one win away from winning half of her career starts (13 wins in 28 races)and is coming off an excellent finish last month in the $400.000 PID Masters Stakes, where she was second to Smoocher, who is 4th in points for this BC race. Don’t Stop has six BC Fillies and Mares Sprint points to her credit, and this places her 22nd overall. Any performance in the money here could catapult her into the top fourteen, depending on how other races shape up.
#5- Millyon Mama (Pumpkin Racing, ridden by S X Bridgmohan)- Inconsistent horses can be frustrating from a wagering standpoint, and this is a bug that has bit Millyon Mama. She will look good for a couple races, and then a she will have a performance making you wonder what in the world happened to her. Although, she usually follows that type of effort up with a win. In that case, go with her here! Her last race was the Grade 1 Ballerina at SAR and she was simply not in the mood to dance, placing dead last, and seven lengths out. In May, though, she just missed winning a very similar race, the Grade 1 Humana Distaff! Make your decision based on the Millyon Mama that you think shows up here. Past results do have her 5th on the BC Fillies and Mares Sprint leaderboard.
#6- Princess O Princess (Oval Express Farms, ridden by M C Berry)- The trainer will be hoping that her most recent race, which was a win in an optional claimer at DMR (in good looking fashion) is a confidence booster to get a filly he believes strongly in. That win followed up a string of off the board finishes in which three were graded events, and was just the second win of her career. She’s in tough here and graded finishes are subpar (9th of 9, 7th of 9, 10th of 10, and 6th of 7), but the trainer obviously believes she is better then those lines show. She’ll have to prove it to me on the track.
#7- Ambient (Mb Stables, ridden by R A Baze)- The next group of horses will see a lot of this trainer as he trains four of the next five that are in the starting gate. All four have earned the right to be in this race and give the trainer a great chance. Ambient has the best position of any of the four on the Fillies and Mares Sprint leaderboard, being ninth overall with ten points. Such a position is quite precarious and she may need to earn more points here. Earlier this season, she was on a roll, winning four straight including the $250.000 SSM Distaff, then the Grade 2 Inside Information. Performances kept being strong after the streak for the Pure Steel filly, but the trainer tried a couple races at longer distance which went fine, but I think she will love the return to sprinting.
#8- Dashboard Rahy (Australia Wide, ridden by R Eikleberry)- It did not take long for Australia Wide to get a bunch of contenders for the BC back in his barn, and to his credit, he did not pay a large sum of money to acquire this filly, purchasing her for $100.000 when her only win under her belt was her maiden debut. After the purchase, the legendary trainer won three races in a row with her, starting with the NM-bred BOA Stakes and culminating with a win in the Grade 1 Test at SAR. Most recently, she was in the Grade 1 Ballerina at SAR, and that did not go her way. She will be looking for a bounce back here and a bullet work in her most recent work shows she is ready to do just that. She is 11th overall on the BC Fillies and Mares Sprint point list.
#9- Helping Hand (Mb Stables, J L Castanon)- A very consistent race horse, putting together an SRF of exactly 96 in six of her last eight races. She has never been higher then that in her career, and while there is some possibility that figure would get it done here, this will have to be the race where she picks it up just a tick. The cut in distance should help her out, as she hasn’t sprinted since March. Starting in April, the trainer got a great showing at an open allowance at TAM while going long and kept her at races over a mile. She did fine in those races, but Helping Hand gets a helping hand back to where she’s made her career here.
#10- Ryder (Mb Stables, ridden by M E Smith)- The four year old filly by Mississippi has won three of her last six races over the last calendar year. She’s like her stablemates in that she has done a lot of routing this year, but unlike Helping Hand for example, she has mostly gone over a mile. Her most recent start, the Grade 3 Bernardo Handicap at DMR, she was victorious in the shortest race she had run since the winter of 2014. There was not a dramatic difference in weights for that handicap, so that win was not skewed by that aspect. Overall, she knows how to get it done, with 8 wins in her 14 career starts, but she will still be a longshot today.
#11- Mischief Made (Mb Stables, ridden by P Lopez)- The final Mb Stables runner for this race finds herself 21st on the BC Fillies and Mares Sprint leaderboard with six points, so she needs to be here and to run well if she wants to return to KEE in four weeks. This Jesse James filly was very lightly raced as a two year old (who was bred as a yearling), showing a large testament to the patience in which Mb Stables exhibits with his talent. That was rewarded as she won the first four races of her career, a streak that included the $100.000 Cicada Stakes at AQU in March. In August, she won her first graded event, taking the G3 Seaway at WO. Most recently, she was third in the G2 PID Masters Stake, a race in which she lost the headbob for 2nd with Don’t Stop, who is here today as well. Mischief Made is working well coming into this race, and while some might think Ambient gives Mb his best chance to win, this is my favorite of his four entries.
#12- Natural Beauty (Ekli Stable, ridden by G L Stevens)- On the far outside, we have another runner who is coming out of the G2 PID Masters Stake last month. In that race, Natural Beauty was fourth and about a length behind Don’t Stop and Mischief Made. The five year old has been doing this for quite some time, and her 31 starts are the most any have made here. She’s won ten of them, but has been more successful in ungraded stakes then she has been in graded events, though she has a G3 win from October 2014 to her credit. What you have to like about her is she seems to be gritty, she never seems to have a bad race. So with that, even though I do not think she will win, she should get serious consideration in exotic wagering.
Prediction: 11-3-7-2
— NS
Categories: Grade II
