09/14 Northern Dancer BC Turf – Grade I
WO Race #4 1 1/2m Turf Graded Stake
Purse $300.000 For Three Year Olds And Upward.
1 Duke Or Earl Gdp Inc Hernandez B J Jr
A ten race winner this five year old has been campaigned on both dirt and turf and has been pretty successful on both surfaces. He won the DMR Mile last year and was runner up in that same race last time out so its clear he is more than good enough on grass i guess the only question will be this 12 furlongs when he has never been beyond 9.
2 Cherokee Charlie Team 7 Illusions Da Silva E R
This son of Cherokee Sunset has a blip on his form from his last start, a blip that makes his form look far worse than it actually is. A dual graded stakes winner he stalked one of those rabbit infested paces last time and ended 26 lengths back at the end of the race. Whilst HRP debates the rather stupid effect of a rabbit in a race we must decide whether this one will once again find his record book tainted by the rather ridiculous use of that instruction. A look at the history books tells us he rabbited in the same race, the DMR Handicap, last year and hasnt since so i doubt he will be used again. In that case from a great draw and proven form over the trip he could get himself in the money.
3 Techfluence The Sidley Stud Velazquez J
This horse is a real superstar who won this race last year and gets all favors from the draw lottery to do so again. A multiple winner over this trip and of graded stakes he has everything you need to win this race and at six years old seems better than ever. There’s not much more to say that barring any shenanigans and with everything in his favor he looks the easy choice.
4 Happy Model Estero Farms Gutierrez Mario
He was a decent overnighter at three running some good races at the lower level but has stepped up as a four year old and is another that is certainly at home over this trip. A brilliant second in the Kilroe Mile he was also second in the BEL Gold Cup finishing in front of Techfluence so that in itself gives him a great chance of winning from a nice draw. He got back and was a little disappointing in the Sword Dancer last time but he was running on well at the end and that fifth place wouldnt be putting me off him. He is working strongly and could be the one they all have to worry about.
5 First Class Male Team 7 Illusions Pimentel J
Another from the stable and another son of Cherokee Sunset he was also involved in some rabbit shenanigans last time but if he is allowed to run his race and runs up to his very close third in the Forrester Turf Classic then he would certainly have a decent chance. He is another that wont be afraid of this trip and i certainly wouldnt be writing off his chances.
6 Arkenstone Mb Stables Garcia Alan
The three year olds of course have the weight advantage here but as the allowance reduces so does their ability to walk all over the older horses and whilst a few months ago this would have just been a matter of picking the best three year old now there is much more to it. This one was a fairly ordinary member of the Mb Stable until the beginning of this year when he started to go to the next level taking out the Transylvania Stakes with a strong late finish. He has since gone onto finishing second in the American Turf, The Pen Mile and the BEL Derby three top turf races for the three year olds and those sort of performances will make him a very big fancy in his first start against older horses.
7 Face Your Fears Mb Stables Bejarano R
Another three year old from the top stable this one hasnt been so consistent as his stable mates but has an impressive purse total thanks to his win in the 1K SAR Derby last time. Previously he had won the MTH Stakes and was seventh in the BEL Derby so that win was no fluke and like his stable companion he will relish the weight advantage especially as he is working as well as any of the horses he is getting weight from. Its hard to separate these runners as usual as i cant even separate the runners from thsi stable so i guess you just have to guess which one will have the luck in running.
8 Decibel Threshold Pennington F
A grand old campaigner he has been there and done that and on his second in the Arlington Million last time is as good as ever. My biggest fear is that he has only won 5 from 21 despite a purse total of 1.4K so he is not often picked as a winner, maybe today will be his day.
9 Chayse Crocker Ggs Maldonado E
Gets the turf jockey of the moment but the rider will have to be sprinkling his fairy dust to find the improvement he needs to win on this one. Having said that Alan Garcia managed to do that in the Nijinsky last time out when this horse beat Video Master over this trip and i must say despite only ordinary form previous to that he looked like 12 furlongs was made for him and very often its those types of horses that can win races like this.
10 Tourniquet Mo Mentum Farm Baze T C
Another three year old this ones biggest career win came last time out in the Breeders Stakes over this trip on wet ground. Its fair to say after that run that he loves a test of stamina and with a record of two wins in two races on turf he is at home on this surface, the biggest question mark maybe this draw as he has had some luck in that department recently and hasnt looked as good when drawn out in the past.
11 Puget Sound Mb Stables Beschizza A
This one is a great example of how a three year old can suddenly improve when given a weight for age allowance. He was an improving sort but only that when he took on the United Nations at grade one level but he came out and grasped a nose win with horses like People Doubted behind. Faced with a faster pace in the Arlington Million last time he got a little way back and struggled with traffic ending up sixth beaten just two lengths, a decent effort considering the circumstances. He is working faster than most sprinters, something that sadly happens at HRP so we know he is in great form and this trip will hold no fears so despite the draw he may turn out to be a fair bet with his more fancies stable companions stealing some limelight.
12 The Joker D J C Racing Stables Lezcano J
This one coped brilliantly with the rabbit in the DMR Handicap last time and is certainly looking more like the horse he was for Maximillion Farm. Top marks to the trainer for sticking with this one after it performed like a pig in its first few starts with the trainer and although the draw will make it tough for him he certainly has the ability.
SUMMARY
A difficult race to read there will either be a rabbit and 30 length between first and last at the finish or no rabbit and one or two covering them at the end. Either way it looks like Techfluences race to lose unless Decibel decides to get a rare win. Of the three’s well your guess is as good as mine, they could still fill the first three places because three pounds and similar work times would be enough to give them the edge, any of Mb’s would be a good bet i guess, but thats not much help.
Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES
