June 18, 2015

Restricted to two-year-olds bred in the great state of NM, the Mountain Top Futurity has been the starting point for a few very good horses at HRP and this year, attracts a powerful field of four going for a $175.000 purse. Sporadic in its running, the first running in 2006 produced four-time stakes winner Kilo Three Four while the 2008 winner Stylin would use his win as a catapult to a victory in the BC Juvenile and more than $1600.000 in earnings (along with fifth place finish Flextime and his $1400.000 in receipts). Brought back in 2012, it featured Doctor Phunk in victory and he has taken down multiple NM-bred stakes since, while last year, Broomsticks Force got the job done over stablemate Broomstick Copy, and each have gone on to stakes success since with the latter taking down the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf in due time. This time around, owner Drabfantasy is back for a repeat with a pair of runners but standing in their way is the runner-up from the famous DMR Trials, who has been lightly worked but seems to have the talent and attitude to win this important juvenile event.

1-Th Watcher (Two-year-old chestnut colt / Owner-Guidry Jr)

One of the fastest juveniles in the lane, Th Watcher put it all together after a debut third at PIM and won the Copper Top Futurity at SUN in a romp and now, gets a chance to stretch his legs even farther and prove that his 90-speed rating was no fluke. A six-furlong workout at EMD was blistering and more importantly, quicker that the end, and that spells trouble for horses who might be staggering at the end when this chestnut is just getting started.

Analysis-The added distance will only help him

Fair Odds-7/5

2-Triple Senor (Two-year-old grey gelding / Owner-Drabfantasy)

Still a maiden after three starts, Triple Senor was unable to get close to Th Watcher at SUN and failed to hold the lead late at CD and the regression in form, and speed ratings, puts him on a downward trend that you do not like to see going into big events. Speed has been the name of his game but his stablemate also knows how to lead and a duel up front could spell big trouble for both, unless he can harness things a little better than he has been in the past.

Analysis-Needs to avoid a speed duel

Fair Odds-4/1

3-B K D House (Two-year-old black filly / Owner-Drabfantasy)

It took three tries but B K D House finally broke her maiden last time out at CD with a solid front-running effort as the favourite and now, moves into restricted company in hopes of padding her bankroll before a run at some of the bigger fillies leading to the BC. Faster in workouts than her stablemate, and probably faster on the track as well, she can certainly lead when she needs to and that might be her claim to victory, if only she can hold off a towering closer to her inside.

Analysis-Break in the weights will help her chances

Fair Odds-7/2

4-Grey Massine (Two-year-old gray colt / Owner-Miata Farm)

Grey Massine was a sharp maiden winner first time out at WO and the experience over a good track proves that he can handle things up front, and that will make him the most logical choice to upset when the track proves fast and quick. He might not be the quickest in workouts but he has done nothing wrong and faced open company last time, making his chances against restricted rivals that much more impressive.

Analysis-Nothing to lose in taking him from the outside

Fair Odds-5/2

Overall

Three of the four horses in the Mountain Top Futurity will be going to the lead early and that will set things up for the only closer in the field and with Th Watcher, you have a colt who is powerful in the mornings and could be the breakthrough horse for a new owner at HRP who really knows how to place their entrants. Grey Massine moves from WO to RUI in hopes of beating easier from the outside while a pair of stablemates might duel themselves into submission and need to avoiding beating each other, in order to beat the favourite.

Prediction

Win-Th Watcher (7/5)

Place-Grey Massine (5/2)

Show-B K D House (7/2)

Triple T Racing 🙂

Categories: Ungraded