The Alexandra Stakes (Grade 2) (KYO)- $300.000 Purse
FG- For Fillies Three Years Old
One Mile and One Sixteenth on the Dirt
February 18, 2023

Last year, the Alexandra Stakes ran with only six entrants but had five fillies join the companion race at FG, the Risen Star. This is something that drew a lot of discussion at the time as fillies had significant success against males due in part to their weight allowance. This year, things are much more normal, with no fillies in the Risen Star and a full field in the Alexandra Stakes. Now, we can focus on the benefits of the Alexandra, which is the first 50-point race for the KYO. This is around the time, then, where we can start to look at that KYO leaderboard and try to get a picture of who the biggest contenders in the division are. Right now, BC Juvenile Fillies winner Rabbit Bay is the leader with 31 points. Looking back at the 2022 Alexandra, the race was won by Drilldownfortruth for TwinTowersRacing, but she would finish at the back at the back for the KYO and has not won another race. While a couple have had their moments, none of the horses in that field went on to do a lot to be excited about last year. I believe things will be a lot different this year as this race gets its rightful identity back.

#1- Sioux Flower (Mb Stables, ridden by A Bocachica)- She is a familiar with FG, having made her last two starts here in a pair of ungraded stakes. Her most recent effort was successful, as she was victorious in a muddy Silverbulletday Stakes, placing her sixth on the KYO leaderboard with 22 points. This time out, she will see much better track conditions to prove that she can also take care of business on a fast track, not that there should be any concern about that.

#2- Rupees (Arindel, ridden by P Lopez)- Last December, she was entered into an $18.000 maiden claimer, which she ended up winning. Arindel may have been more grateful about no one picking her up, because just three weeks later, she switched to the turf and won the $200.000 CA Cup Oaks. Ran two weeks ago at GP on yielding turf and did not like the track conditions. On short rest, it’s back to the main track for the first time since that maiden claimer. Only has one public work on the dirt, coming back in November, so obviously not helpful now.

#3- Untidy (Mb Stables, ridden by Ru Silvera)- Thus far in his career, Untidy thinks every race means a visit to the winner’s circle when it’s over. He’d win on debut at SA, and then got a couple months off before heading to the $150.000 Jerome. Against the boys, Untidy jumped out to a big lead and held on for the win and will now go back to taking on fellow fillies. I suspect that she will look to get out on or near the lead again. If she wins here, then I am very interested in following her for the next couple months, at least.

#4- Class Four (Chili King Stables, ridden by R A Vazquez)- Up to this point, Class Four has run the majority of her races on the grass, and will be on the main track for the first time since late July. What we have seen thus far is an inconsistent horse, showing plenty of potential in the $75.000 What A While victory at GP, but other times this closer has not been able to make a move at all in the stretch. Maybe recent changes to how races are run will benefit Class Four, and the surface switch could as well. This is a very important race for her to see how good she truly is.

#5- Black Moon Concerto (TwinTowersRacing, ridden by A Cedillo)- Here is another horse that you can fairly call inconsistent as she has been rotating wins and poor results over her seven-race career. For at least this start, TwinTowersRacing ill be hoping that pattern continues. Her negative results have not necessarily been poor runs as she was respectable in the Grade 1 Alcibiades. She’s had two months off, and with that, hopefully can find consistency.

#6- Tokyo Story (Smokey Stover, ridden by J R Velazquez)- The Alexandra Stakes will be the first time that we have seen Tokyo Story since late November, when she was triumphant in the Grade 2 Golden Rod. Even before that, she was turning in positive results in top two-year-old races. This has helped her 12 points on the KYO leaderboard without even making a start as a three-year-old. Now, she is ready to make her debut in 2023 and she should be fine just as long as the layoff doesn’t impact her.

#7- Up She Flew (Aer Stables, ridden by D Davis)- The trainer showed that he has an excellent eye for talent, purchasing this one in private sales when she was still unraced, for $20.000. It has definitely worked out as she put together a solid juvenile campaign in limited starts. After finished third in the Grade 2 Chandelier, and she went on to win the $200.000 Fern Creek. She has continued to run well into this year and comes here off a win in the Grade 3 Las Virgenes, giving her 27 KYO points and placing herself fifth on the leaderboard.

#8- Appreciate (Mo Mentum Farm, ridden by F Geroux)- With two wins in four starts, this is still a horse looking to find her place at this level. After struggling in her debut, she would go on to win an allowance at AQU before being a non-factor in the $150.000 Shady Well Stakes for ON-breds. Came here following that, and with F Geroux also aboard, she would win an optional claimer. This is test like no other that she has faced in her career, and while she may pass with flying colors, I want to see it out of her first before I can fully appreciate her.

#9- Snake Island (Night Mare Racing, ridden by J Lezcano)- This filly will make her first start as a three-year-old after having a very successful juvenile campaign against NY-breds. In November, she won the $100.000 Key Cents, but it was the race afterward that opened a lot of eyes: the $500.000 Fifth Avenue. The Alexandra Stakes will be her first time going at least a mile, but looking at her work times, it seems as though she has been yearning for the opportunity. Everything about this horse seems positive, and Night Mare has got herself a good one for the KYO chase. I like her chances right here to at least get some points, if not all fifty.

#10- Twilight Time (Fractious, ridden by L Dettori)- Broke her maiden in her second start, coming at SAR and was promptly placed into graded races. She has been hit and miss in those races, particularly showing her promise when she finished second in the Grade 3 Pocahontas at CD, very narrowly missing a win on that September day. It’s been a while since she has shown that form, with a couple of duds in her last two races. If she wants to get into the KYO, the time is now for her to start showing her good side once again.

#11- Niagra Keys (Alydar Stables, ridden by F T Alvarado)- This one hasn’t seen much action, with only three starts on her record thus far. Won for the first time at DMR, coming in a sprint on the grass and followed that up with a victory in the $100.000 Untapable on this racetrack in December. That got her started on the KYO leaderboard with ten points and she will be looking to make this race a carbon copy of that. It will start the same way, from post 11.

#12- Lucky Star (Calia Stable, ridden by L Saez)- Surprisingly, there is only horse in this field that ran in the BC Juvenile Fillies. That would be Lucky Star, who ended up finishing in the middle of the field in that race. To get there, she was especially successful at New York-based tracks. She continued that trend after the BC, winning the Grade 2 Demoiselle at AQU. This is only the second time that she hasn’t run in NY. Hopefully, she won’t miss it.

Prediction: 9-7-3-5

— NS

Categories: Grade II, STAKES ARTICLES