The Long Island – Grade III
AQU Race #5 1 1/2m InTurf Graded Stake
Purse $400.000 For Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward.
1 Made The Choice High First Flight Stable Castellano J J
This five year old is a pretty honest sort who has always been thereabouts but generally at a lower grade than she faces today. She took 13 races to break her maiden so it is safely assumed that she is a later developer but she will have to step up on her best efforts to be a factor. The main thing in her favor is that she loves this trip and generally leaves her effort very late but with today’s draw i wonder if the trainer will tinker with the instructions and try and get her much closer to the speed. It is fair to say she is outclassed but as the season draws to an end these types of races can go to fresher sorts so you can’t entirely write her off.
2 Number Nine Smokey Stover Alvarado J
This filly proved her class with a game win in the BC Fillies and Mares Turf but that huge effort was only three weeks ago so her biggest problem may be that career best run. Drawn in the perfect spot she is likely to lead as the trainer has quickly worked out this race engine and knows that her best chance of success and she has the draw to make all just as she did in the BC. She hasn’t publicly worked since her last run so we wont know until the stretch how jaded she might be. An obvious winning chance but one that comes with proviso’s.
3 Starshipdotcom TwinTowersRacing Franco M
Don’t you just love HRP as this filly was running fourth in a five furlong sprint a while ago and is now taking on a 12 furlong slog and has every chance. She ran fifth in the grade one Taylor over ten furlongs and the trainer just loves to throw their horses in the deep end and has come up with one or two shock winners. The three year olds get 3Lbs and on the balance of form that shouldn’t be enough to upset a BC winner, but you just never know.
4 Chai State Smokey Stover Carmouche K
The trainer has so many top fillies and mares that it is not surprising that they have two entries here and both have a chance. She took a while to break maidens but since she has she has gone from strength to strength and capped off good overnight form with a very nice second in the QE II last time. The disadvantage is that the three’s have struggled against older’s this year but her work times are comparable with most and she gets three pounds so may without the rigors of the BC be a value bet.
5 Intanga Rose D J C Racing Stables Ferrer J C
With nine efforts this year for zero wins it is easy to overlook her but she has snippets of excellent form and a return to her best would see her go close. A bit disappointing in her last two she was placed at grade one twice before that. Her works suggest she may have something left to give and she may just be the dark horse in the race.
6 A Chorus Line Asgar Landeros C
Reveled in the test of stamina of 12 furlongs in soft ground last time when taking the Dowager by a very easy four lengths. Wet ground form is hard to read but of it rains today then she is proven and would probably warrant a winning chance in those conditions. Again rather typical of HRP she was running in a sprint stakes race just two back and she works like a sprinter but of course that means very little and she is proven over this trip so nothing should be read into that. As yet she hasn’t done anything that could beat the top two here but they are both 3 weeks from a hard BC campaign so this may be her chance to break through.
7 Proud Eights Mb Stables Saez L
Beat Number Nine easily in the Waya and then lost to the same filly in the BC, there is no particularly obvious reason why so you have a straight choice as to which result will happen today. Usually the draw is the decider so i would imagine Number Nine should confirm the BC form but this was a better mare all year so it wouldn’t be unexpected to see her win again today.
SUMMARY
The two proven fillies here are Number Nine and Proud Eights and there doesn’t seem much between them. Proud Eights was the better filly all year until the BC so that could mean three things, she is looking for a seasons end, it was just one of those things in the BC and she is better overall or Number Nine is going up the improvement curve and this one s standing still or declining. The draw says Number Nine but rather than look at those two i would be trying to find the one to make the trifecta and maybe cause an upset. For me that filly may be the other Smokey Stover runner in Chai State.
Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES
