BC Juvenile Turf Sprint – Grade I
DMR Race #8 5f Turf Graded Stake
Purse $1,000.000 For Two Year Olds.
This is a unique race on the BC calendar because it is the one true gender-less race with fillies and colts racing each other on a fairly even footing. Out of the 9 running’s of this race 3 have been won by fillies, so I think we can pretty much ignore gender as a reason for winning or losing and concentrate instead on the pure speed the juveniles will need to win this five-furlong dash.
First run in 2012 when known as the BC Juvenile Sprint Preview, it was won by Squaw Will from Ekli Stables and she went on to win 10 races form her 16 starts all over sprint trips. Missing 2013 the race returned in 2014 and was still known as the Sprint Preview and was this time won by Night Rider Stables’ Rajiv Papito. Missing again in 2015 it returned in 2016, but it wasn’t until 2018 that it got a full Breeders Cup purse and the title that it has now.
That first running in 2018 was won by Diggin Up Bones from Estero Farms and in the 5 running’s since only one trainer has managed more than one win and that was of course Mb Stables. Last year the race was won by Asgar and Off Break clocking a fast time but the five-furlong race record is held by Amy Is Shameful from la Canada Racehorses at 56.55 seconds and the 5.5-furlong record is held by none other than Drinking Creepin.
This is traditionally a tough race to weigh up as the qualification races are few and far between and many horses will get in this race from way down the qualification list. The key in the past has been speed and the race record was set on this track so you must have a horse that can sprint, there are no prisoners here and a sluggish start will make it very hard to win. With that in mind let’s take a look at the runners which DO NOT include the top 8 Qualifiers and DO include a qualifier that is outside the top 50 and doesn’t even make the qualifiers list!!
1 Barn Breath Our Athletes Velazquez J R 122 —
15.1hh by Breath Of The Wild out of Macander
Owned and bred by Our Athletes
Form: 2141
WR N/A
Qualified outside top 50
Not only did this one get in the race without stakes run to qualify him but he got in without being inside the top 50 qualifiers and a WR which is surprising as I know he got in before at least one stakes placed horse. The nomination system is beyond my comprehension but nonetheless you would think this would be an also ran but I wouldn’t be writing him off too soon. Drawn the ace which should help him find a decent enough position, he won an Allowance at KEE last time which was worth more than a lot of the smaller stakes races and probably had more talent in it. He gets what looks like his first-choice jockey as Velazquez won on him last time and is a great BC jockey so despite his lack of comparable form, he really is a very live winning chance. Early pace will be key for him as he won’t want to slip too far back from this gate but if he can travel in fifth or sixth, he will be coming through strongly at the end.
2 Matey Red Fox Farms Centeno D E 119 —
15.3hh by Copper Bottom out of Secret Alert
Owned by Red Fox Farms and bred by Night Rider Stables
Form: 11100
WR 102
Qlualified 9th
Won her first three races over sprint trips including two ungraded stakes races but was then stepped up over ground in the Natalma and the Jessamine and it looked to me at least that she didn’t get the trip as a closer or an on-speed runner. Back to sprinting for this race and from an in-form juvenile stable she has a chance of being one of the best $10.000 buys of the year.
She draws the enviable two box and will probably travel close to the horse inside her and the three pound sex allowance could be useful in what is bound to be a tight finish. The jockey she has drawn has won on her before and her works with that three-pound help are competitive enough to give the stable a hope for a huge BC for them.
3 Big Blue Mb Stables Gutierrez Mario 122 —
15.3hh by Supercomplication out of Infinite Wisdom
Owned by Mb Stables and bred by Fractious
Form: 011
WR 101
Qualified 26th
Bought from Fractious for $15.500 he is another that could prove a bargain buy as they pass the post today. Won his maiden here at DMR in a big-ticket maiden showing plenty of speed over this course and distance and that experience will be a great help. In his last start after being bought at auction he managed a 96 SRF rating in winning the Speakeasy Stakes from a difficult draw by a comfortable length and I like the way he adjusted his running style to win that race which can be a sign of a good horse. He has the draw, the trainer and the speed to win this.
4 Sizzlin Aer Stables Beschizza A 119 —
15.1hh by Locomotive out of Rename 1690
Owned and bred by Aer Stables
Form: 132
WR 101
Qualified 30th
This is one of those that has been harshly treated by the draw monster up to now drawing outside in all of her three runs. Despite that handicap she has acquitted herself very well winning on debut, but it wasn’t until her last start when switched to the turf that she started to look like a BC hope. That run was in the Matron where she went hard from the wide gate and kept on pretty well to hold second and with the winner of that race absent here, she could find herself with a big chance from a much better draw today. She is working well and gets the three pounds sex allowance which may make her the best hope of the girls in this race and the only question I guess we have to ask is, can she show the same early speed she has so far without the outside speed push?
5 Einstein Mb Stables Gaffalione T 122 —
15.3hh by Wisdom out of Planet X
Owned by Mb Stables and bred by Arkansas Elite
Form: 21103
WR 101
Qualified 23rd
Won the Tyro Stakes on an off track very gamely so was expected to do better in the KD Juvenile in the same conditions than he ended up doing. It could have been the wet track pace factor that killed his chances that day as he was hung out wide on a pace that was always going to be tough on the leaders but his eventual ninth place finish was just too bad to be true. Mb Stables then pounced with a $100.000 purchase and then raced the gelding in the Indian Summer where he finished a fair third proving he can run well on a dry track. I am not sure about this one, he could be here to make up the numbers for the owner or they may have seen something more than he has produced on the track so far. He is not without a chance, but I do find myself leaning towards his stable mates more.
6 Risecock Night Rider Stables Ortiz J L 122 —
15.2hh by Compress out of Salt Gully
Owned and bred by Night Rider Stables
Form: 03100
WR 101
Qualified 27th
An early season type he broke his maiden in a stakes race which is always a great thing to do for an owner taking the Royal Palm Juvenile back in May. That was his first turf race and he went back to the dirt to try the Sanford but could only whack away for fifth so it was back to the turf last time to try for the Futurity. He was pretty disappointing in the Futurity ending up a never in contention tenth and that effort just doesn’t look good enough in this race. Having said that here he is and everything has a chance especially in a five furlong dash where the start may determine the end, if Oritz can get him away with the leaders then you never know.
7 Yankee Hanny Mb Stables Prat F 122 —
15.3hh by Heffalump Hanny out of Yankee Fantatic
Owned by Mb Stables, bred by Jive Inc
Form: 004101
WR 103
Qualified automatic
There is only one automatic qualifier for this race and that is the Futurity and he got home very impressively in a faster time than the Matron over the same trip and running from a difficult draw, He hated the wet track in the KD Juvenile in the race before that so unless the rains come to DMR I think we can forget that effort. He took a while to find the winner’s circle taking his maiden on his fourth start, but he had been around the big-ticket races so I don’t see that as a problem. The winner of a key race and from the Mb Stables operation I will be surprised if the odds monkeys don’t make him a pretty firm favorite to win and that may well be a good assessment of his chances especially with so many of the top qualifiers absent from the line up.
8 So Glad Youre Mine Maxmillion Farm Garcia Mar 119 —
15.2hh by Socrates out of Smarty Pants
Owned by Maxmillion Farm, bred by Martyparty
Form: 1414
WR 101
Qualified 17th
Beat The Matron winner My Beautiful Ballon in the Untappable flying home to take the race by three quarters of a length. With a finish like that it was no wonder the trainer tried her in the Surfer Gal next up over the mile, but she could only manage fourth and I wonder whether her finish was blunted a little over the longer trip. Back to sprints today she must be one of the best chances for the fillies. Drawn 8 will test her early pace but Garcia Mar won the Untappable on her so knows how close. She has to have a chance. She will be one of the favorites and could win, but she may be a tough watch as she struggles to keep up early and then has to launch a late run in what will be a bunching field.
9 Queen Mia Red Fox Farms Pennington F 119 —
15.2hh by Mamushi out of Queen Snipe Party
Owned and bred by Red Fox Farms
Form: 01200
WR N/A
Qualified 42nd
She was out of the gate early on the 2nd of April but then had a long break before coming back for a second start and her first win in a decent MTH maiden. She then went to SAR for The Bolton Landing and showed loads of pace to lead them for a long way before getting run down into second. She led at this trip that day and looked a real speedster so it was surprising to see her contest the KD Juvenile and Miss Grillo over longer trips in her last two where she again showed speed but faded out of contention. Back to the five furlongs today which I feel maybe her best trip she should be up there early and I think at her best she has enough to still be there at the end.
10 Kid Puka RNP Stables Ferrer J C 122 —
15.1hh by Summer Kid out of Puka
Owned and bred by RNP Stables
Form: 1202
WR 102
Qualified 13th
Just a tiddler at 15.1hh, he has shown enough maturity to suggest his stature has nothing to do with maturity. A very easy free track maiden winner on debut he then very nearly won the Skidmore going down by just a neck after leading at this trip. Tried over ground next out on the dirt track he ran OK to be sixth but told the owner enough to bring him back to turf sprinting in the Futurity in his last start. Starting from a wide gate he went hard early and again led at the five furlongs but was collared by the faster finishing Yankee Hanny, but I think that effort was pretty good considering the work he had to do through the first four furlongs. I would expect a similar run from a similar draw here but there are many who will be trying to the same, so it will be a gamble as to which one gets the best start.
11 Ineedu2party Maxmillion Farm Jimenez A 122 —
15.2hh by No Doubt Bronze out of Spirited Strides
Owned by Mamillion Farms and bred by Martyparty
Form: 2101
WR 101
Qualified 22nd
Switched to turf last time and showed just how much he loves the grass with a very swift all the way win in the Indian Summer. That win came after three runs on the dirt but after being bought from the breeder for $125.000 you would expect nothing less than the turf king to switch surfaces and get him in the BC. To be fair he had looked OK on the dirt being beaten a length in the Best Pal, but he certainly looked good in that last start and could well start this race as one of the favorites. The wide draw may not be too bad as there is a lot of pace in this race and the wide gate speed push could help if one of them flies the gate and gets a head start and on that last effort, he has every chance for that to be him. The same jockey that won the Indian Summer last time takes the reins here, so they know what to do.
12 Mind The Dimes Asgar Lopez P 122 —
15.1hh by Dime Defense out of Luna Mind
Owned and bred by Asgar
Form: 40114
WR N/A
Qualified 18th
I wasn’t sure this one would choose this race over the longer ones as he stayed on so well in the Pilgrim last time but that can sometimes happen with sprinters in longer races and the trainer certainly knows this horse better than me. Starting off on the dirt way back in April he turned the corner when brought to the turf winning a little maiden at LAD and then scorching home for a very impressive win in the KD Juvenile. He was slow away that day but when he hit his stride, he put them away with ease and there wasn’t anyone at the track that wasn’t impressed by the effort. His last start in the Pilgrim may prove to be even better if he turns out to be a sprinter. The problem for him here will be gate 12. In all his starts so far, he has struggled with early pace so is likely to go back from the draw and we have often seen the AI take them too far back from wide gates and that could be a problem for a race that will be over in the blink of an eye. Having said that there are plenty that want to lead so one would expect a frantic first quarter which could play into his hands if he can time a finish out wide. A winning chance if the race engine works for him.
13 Tank Davis Royalty Stables Franco M 122 —
15.3hh by Heretowinthisfight out of Neon Bomber
Owned and bred by Royalty Stables
Form: 142
WR N/A
Qualified 40th
Lightly raced with just three starts he won his maiden at LS and then went to the OT Juvenile over the mile where he showed early speed before weakening into fourth. He looked happier in the Indian Summer last time stalking the leader and keeping on for second but just could not make a dent in Ineedu2party’s lead. He faces that one again today and will want to beat them out of the gate and maybe the wide gate speed push will help that although the other one will have that same aid so who knows. He no doubt has ability and in only his fourth start is entitled to improve as he has done so far with each run. He will need a fast start from this gate as there is plenty of pace inside him but he does have chances even from unlucky thirteen.
14 Criminal Law D J C Racing Stables Hernandez R M 122 —
15.3hh by Lawful out of Misbehaving Lady
Owned and bred by D J C Racing Stables
Form: 223123
WR 101
Qualified 19th
I like the fact that this one has plenty of experience but I am not entirely sure he will be suited by this car park draw. He has shown pace to find the stalk in most of his races but a stalk here could be tenth and wide if all the speed horses get away well. He took a while to break his maiden but has since improved in leaps and bounds running second in the KD Juvenile and third in the Futurity so he certainly has the form to put him right there with a winning chance. He has something to find with a few of these that beat him in the last two and it wont help being out here, but then the race engine is a fickle mistress and maybe stalking a fast pace could work if everything gets out of the way going down the stretch. Race engine aside which we can’t second guess she has every right to have a winning chance on his form so far.
15 Monoplate Williams9 – Also Eligible – 122 —
First AE he showed pace in the Speakeasy last time to be third and has worked well so would have to be considered if something comes out.
16 Run Over Them Williams9 – Also Eligible – 122 —
Second AE, works better than he performs on the track but is an outsider to draw in and an outsider to get in the top ten if he does.
17 The Green One Langley Farms – Also Eligible – 122 —
Third AE and probaly has shown better form than a few that got in but it is unlikely he will get a run.
SUMMARY
Well, my first of four BC races to write about and what a first one to try and dissect. First of all there are plenty of speed horses here as you would expect, so I can see the ones that get away fast having a chance and the ones that don’t having little or none. We don’t know who that will be so surmising that there will be a fast pace it may be worth looking at those that will be flying down the stretch from a little further back. It certainly won’t be easy for the closers, and it is sure to be a race of noses and heads, but you sort of have to go with a plan and hope in a race like this so you either pick the best speed horse or the best closer.
For me then I will go for Mind The Dimes to come late and wide and nab Ineedu2party close home. Yankee Hanny will be flying home too and should be in the top four or five along with So Glad Youre Mine and Criminal Law. If I haven’t mentioned yours there do not worry because there really isn’t anything here without a winning chance.
Categories: BC 2024, Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES, THE BREEDERS CUP
