The BEL – Grade I
SAR Race #2 1 1/4m Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $2,000.000 For Three Year Olds.

This is perhaps not the most important BEL ever run, as there is no Howl To The Hound going for a first-ever HRP triple crown, but this is probably the BEST BEL I have ever written about. Why? Well, we have the brilliant KYD winner in Extreme Jet, the equally brilliant Preakness winner in No Real Drama, the Preakness and KYD runners up, the pre-race KYD favorite in Daemon, and of course the brilliant filly Credit Crime.
Three-year-old racing just doesn’t get any better than this! Let’s look at each runner:

1 Gold State Mb Stables Prat F 126 —

Bought for just $8.000 from Smokey Stover, this gelding came out of the blue and into the KYD with a breathtaking win in the LA Derby, where he swooped so late that he didn’t even get a thought until the final furlong. After that effort, he went straight to the KYD, where he once again attempted to come from the clouds, but this time could only manage fourth. He was drawn 17 in the KYD, so that was a pretty meritorious run, and in missing the Preakness he comes here fresh and ready after a blistering 1.36- and 1-mile work. In a field full of chances, he is certainly one of them, and if the pace is hot, his turn of foot could see him weaving through late.

2 Without Warning TwinTowersRacing Geroux F 126 —

When he gamely got home in the Risen Star he became a live KYD hope, and he backed that up with an equally game second in the AR Derby where he went down by a nose. The wet track didn’t suit him in the KYD, and he went back off the pace, which isn’t his normal style, but he got home well enough to be sixth right alongside Gold State. This trainer knows how to upset the big favorites, and after this one’s 1.36 flat work and with this perfect draw, I think he may be the dark horse in the field.

3 Point Given Alydar Stables Smith M E 126 —

A very close third in the Breeders Futurity and then again in the BC Juvenile, this one was right in the top of his generation, and when Fractious came to sell his barn, Alydar swooped in with a purchase of $444.010. He was certainly looking to the KYD in his first two starts, running a closing fifth in the Southwest before a solid third in the Fountain Of Youth but then failed to secure the points when only seventh in the BG Stakes. His last start came in the Preakness, where he went back to his old closing style but left it all too late and ended up eighth but not beaten far. His timing and running style seem to be his biggest Achilles heel because we know he has the ability, but it has been a fair while since he has put it all together. If he does get it right he is right in this from a nice draw.

4 Credit Crime Aer Stables Ortiz I Jr 121 —

Wow, here she is, and whatever happens today, her last four wins will live in our memory on their own. So can the brilliant KYO winner defeat the boys? Well, if this were real life, I would be all over her with a 5Lb pull in the weights, the perfect draw, and her usual rider at the helm, but this is not real life, and there is a lot more than luck in running that may be against her. For some reason, be it programming or some other hidden thing, the fillies and mares can’t compete with the males here at HRP with the same consistency and competitiveness that they do in real life, or at least that is the impression I have gotten over the years. But they have, it has happened, albeit not very often, and if this filly can pull it off today, she will surely go down as the best filly of the year and maybe that the game has seen in recent years.

5 Decal Williams9 Bridgmohan S X 126 —

He was a very good two-year-old in a season that the trainer really emerged here at HRP and I must admit after some battling efforts in The Southwest, The Rebel and the AR Derby where he was right on the top three without getting in it looked like he was going to be a competitive three-year-old too. His last two starts, however, in the KYD and the Preakness where he beat only two homes over both races, suggest that just maybe he is paying the price for a torrid early campaign. His works are still strong, but it is hard to find a way back from those last two races.

6 Losing Hazard Asgar Centeno D E 126 —

When this one took the Springboard Mile and then came out to win The Southwest, he looked like a real KYD hope, but his last two races have been inexplicably bad, finishing last in the LA Derby and The Preakness. How he went from four wins in a row to two last places, I can’t quite work out, but he is better than that and looks to repair his reputation today. There aren’t too many reasons to think he can turn it round, though, as his works though good, are not setting the world alight, and he may just turn out to be a miler rather than looking at these longer trips. He gets his chance, though and he has the ability, so you cannot write him off totally.

7 Red Font John Henry Pennington F 126 —

John Henry looks to have struck a deal with Wood Duck Stables, taking the next two in the lineup in private sales as the trainer looks to downsize. This one squeezed into the KYD off of a good second in the LA Derby but had to deal with an awkward draw and conditions that didn’t suit in the KYD and faded into tenth after being in contention at the mile. Back on a faster track in the Preakness he ran a cracker to be third running on strongly from a similar draw to today, and that run certainly makes him a big chance for some quick pay back for the new owner. I would expect to see him mid-pack and looking for gaps on the turn and his running style may just be the right one for this race.

8 Boss Spearman John Henry Franco M 126 —

John Henry took this one for $500.000 from Wood Duck and looks to have picked up two big chances for this race. This one bred by Panionios Racing took on a new lease of life under Wood Duck Stables, emerging as a real KYD chance after a brilliant last gasp win in the AR Derby. He didn’t throw away his chance in the run for the roses, looking like a winner at the mile and holding onto second behind Extreme Jet in a huge effort that saw him a real chance in the Preakness in his last start. Taken further back, that day he made ground to be sixth, and whilst the trainer may have been disappointed by his placing, I think it was a decent effort from a tough draw. He is a win chance on his best, but the question, as with so many others, is whether the tough TC schedule is taking its toll on him.

9 No Real Drama Asgar Silvera Ru 126 —

He looked pretty good when taking the Davis Stakes but missed his KYD slot in the Ruby next out when a one-paced looking sixth. Roll onto the Preakness and he was given little chance by the bookies as he went off at 28/1 but as often can happen in that race, the fresh legs were key and after stalking the early pace he took it up after halfway and never really looked in danger of being caught. He is quite difficult to work out as his Preakness win was dominant, but his form before that was just good. The big plus here is the booking of Silvera Ru, who has won both the Davis and The Preakness on him so knows the horse well.

10 Clever D J C Racing Stables Corrales G 126 —

A little disappointing in all his prep races for the TC, the best he could manage was a fourth in the Smarty Jones, so his 80/1 odds in the Preakness were no surprise. However, like the winner that day, he was running on fresh legs, and he ran a career best to be second, coming on strongly at the end. Like No Real Drama he is tough to work out as his best run came in the Preakness, and he had been only average prior to that. If that last effort was a sign of improvement, then he has every chance.

11 Extreme Jet Mb Stables Velazquez J R 126 —

His win in the KYD was nothing short of breath taking coming late on the wet track and strolling home well clear of the field. I really thought the Preakness was at his mercy but after traveling well enough just behind the leaders he just didn’t finish it off and ended up fifth. His pre-KYD work of 1.10 was stupendous and he worked the same after the Preakness so we must assume he is the same horse he was and if he is he will be a favorites chance. If the rains come then pile it on, if it stays dry it is certainly a lot closer but he is still a big hope.

12 In Good Order Acber Farms Gutierrez Mario 126 —

Freshened up after his KYD fifth he is a natural closer so will need to rely on factors to have his best chance. The trip will certainly suit and if the pace is hot enough he will be arriving late and fast and in those types of races the wider gates can often find the clearest path. He got the timing right in the Battaglia Memorial winning well and then was a strong second in the BG Stakes so he certainly has the ability if he gets it right today.

13 Fighter Ship Grimley Zayas E J 126 —

He only won his maiden in February, so it was a surprise to even see him in the KYD but after a great effort to be third in the Ruby off that maiden win, he then just missed in the Lexington and just made the Derby field. Going off at 56/1 he wasn’t given much chance in the KYD but ran on strongly to take third in a very good effort and he may be just the sort that is on the up as a few others may be flattening out. He won’t be favorite today but that didn’t stop him last time.

14 Daemon Alydar Stables Lezcano J 126 —

He was on one heck of a run of wins heading into the KYD and started that race a popular favorite. The grade one Pharaoh winner he then went on to take the BC Juvenile and just never stopped as a three-year-old, taking the Lecompt, then the Rebel and the FL Derby. There is no doubt in my mind that the wet track killed his chances in the KYD as he went off on the speed and then just died in the wet ground, ending up in thirteenth place. If it is dry for this race, we see a different horse but the draw he has been given will make it very hard. He will need to get away, then clear horses inside, then find a slot somewhere near the rail before he can really think about winning, but if any of that happens, then other than the KYD he would be a stand-out chance.

15 Alydar D J C Racing Stables Curtis B 126 —

Was looking pretty good in the preps taking second in both the Southwest and The Rebel but couldn’t get home in the AR Derby before a difficult run in the KYD where he got a mile behind before making some ground into eleventh. If you take out his last two starts, he has chances of top four and he is used to wide draws as he always seems to get them but as a likely closer, he will need the race engine to construct a fast pace and then land him not so far back to have a chance.

16 Obi Wan Mb Stables Lopez P 126 —

With the wide gate speed push this is our likely front runner, and he showed just how good he can be in that role when he stole the BG Stakes last time out. I really like the fact that he has had a big rest where a lot of these have been very busy so if he does find the lead, he may just be one of those that makes all and holds on.

SUMMARY

Wow, what a race this is and one that it is very hard to try and find the winner. I have to go for the brilliant filly Credit Crime, even though I don’t think the fillies stand much of a chance against the boys at HRP but her win in the KYO was just so good I would love to see her do it again here. Extreme Jet is the obvious danger and on works at least he looks no worse off for his busy schedule, he was equally brilliant in the KYD but looked more vulnerable on a dry track in the Preakness, but he probably deserves to start favorite either way. Other chances, well to be honest there are 14 of them but I think Without Warning and Gold State could provide some decent odds and both look in tip top order.

Good luck to all !

Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES, TC 2025, THE TRIPLE CROWN