BC Classic – Grade I
DMR Race #15 1 1/4m Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $7,000.000 For Three Year Olds And Upward.

Whilst we all love the run for the roses, the thrill of the Kentucky Derby and the dream of a triple crown winner the ultimate prize in American racing and the cornerstone of greatness comes in the form of the Breeders Cup Classic. A test of speed, stamina and heart whoever wins this race has to be 101% on the day, the trainer has to get it spot on, the AI in the form of the selected jockey has to get it exactly right and above all the horse has to peak at exactly the right moment. There are of course a few other factors, the draw and weather can play a huge part in the result but there are things a player can control and things they can’t so the random and hidden things must stay at the back of the mind, or they will make you second guess and taking your mind off a race like this can spell defeat.

First run in 2003 it was won by a horse called Smokin trained by Wattos, the trainer only raced three seasons and 741 times but achieved 3 BC wins in their short career and over $11000.000. It makes you wonder after success like that why they left the game. The horse Smokin raced only 14 times winning just 4 and took the Classic in just his fifth start. To show you how racing was back then he was beaten 21 lengths into second last place just a month before the BC and that was after winning a grade one in his start before. He was sold by Wattos for $500.000 in 2005 and went on to sire 270 horses with only eleven of them achieving more than $100.000 in prize money and not one of the offspring ever winning more than $300.000 in their career. He raced with a short femur and an average heavy forehand and I wonder, with a first public work of one minute and twenty seconds for 6 furlongs, whether he would ever have seen a racecourse in modern times. In fact, his pre-Classic work of 1.41 and 2 for the mile would barely get him a start at the free track now.

As the years went by of course much changed at HRP, the population of horses and the experience and knowledge held by the players is far in excess of anything back in 2003 and whilst work times have tumbled and breeding has given us a boat load of fast workers the fastest three Classics were run in 2005, 2011 and 2012 with the race record being held by Marzuensky at 1.58:57 which has beaten every time since by two seconds.
Let’s talk about Marzuensky for a bit. The record holder raced for Nakamura Stables back in 2012 and would end up with a 31-race career and 11 wins for just shy of $6000.000 in prize money. He didn’t race as a two-year-old and didn’t really turn the corner until he was four with the Classic being his one and only grade one win that year. He went on to being second as a beaten favorite in the race in 2013 but faded as a six-year-old and was retired before his seventh birthday. To give you an idea why most of the stakes records are held in that era you only have to look at work times. This one’s pre-race mile dirt work was an unbelievable 1.33 and 4, yes, I did say DIRT because that sort of work time these days would only be seen on turf. It makes you realize just how much the program can be manipulated when you see those work times and race times because sure enough it didn’t take very long before realism was sought, and everything was turned down to such an extent I doubt we will ever see a Classic run this fast again. The one thing to remember though is no matter how fast they worked and how fast they ran in 2012 they were the same horses and trainers as they are now, the program just had them ALL running too fast and was slowed down by HRP but I feel the result would’ve been the same had the horse been working 1.36 and the race time a more believable 2.01.
Of Classic winners, there may be fast ones, there may be great ones but still the only horse to ever achieve two Classic wins was the great Whats Up. An autogen he was to end his career a few dollars shy of $10,000.000 in prize money but held the distinction of being unbeaten at the Breeders Cup with 2 classic wins and a BC Dirt Mile win in his three starts in the end of year championship. He was bred by Spongebob and owned for all his BC wins by Australia Wide and the only sad part in his history was the fact that the breeder lost this one in a $7.000 claim after his debut run.

Mb Stables not surprisingly has the most Classic wins with four followed by Australia Wide, the other 13 contests were shared between 13 trainers, a stat that is very reflective of the domination those two players have enjoyed in their own era’s. Of the four winners from Mb Stables the most influential horse and probably the best on balance had to be Commanding. To be fair to Tactical and Individuation their careers may have been more rounded, and they may have won more money but this horse won the KYD and the Classic in the same year and has become one of the most influential sires in the game, so I think, for me at least, that makes him the one.

last year the race was won by Night Rider Stables and Sexy Back, A six year old at the time of his win he won by a nose at 36/1 after making all the running from the ten gate. He was without a doubt, a surprise winner to most but his trainer had maintained that he was good enough to win a Classic and despite the horses inconsistency he was proven right.

So finally in our look at the race and its history let’s look at some trends. Three-year-olds have won 12 of the 21 running’s giving them a clear advantage with the weight concession at this time of year, 4 four-year-olds have won and 4, five-year-olds have been victorious 4 times, the oldest horse to ever win was Sexy Back last year as a six-year-old.

The Classic has been run here at DMR twice before, Mb Stables has won both of them and in both cases the winner came from the stalk or a loose stalk. Interestingly the slowest Classic ever won was by Barbarino in 2007 on a slushy track with Individuation on a good track next slowest. Another interesting fact is that Commanding won in the third slowest Classic time on a fast-track beating Maruzensky who had won the previous year in the fastest ever Classic which was three seconds faster than the 2013 running.

OK enough of history let’s move on to the runners for the 22nd running of the HRP BC Classic.

1 Wahpekute Sioux Mb Stables Lezcano J 126 —

A four year old entire by Sioux out of Her Sneaky Command
Owned by Mb Stables, bred by Kopites
2024 form: 013211001
Lifetimes record 24 runs for 10 wins and $3102.000, WR rating 111

In September 2022 this one was claimed by El Primero Rodeo for just $6.250, less than a month later they were selling to Mb Stables for $100.000, a good profit at the time but I am sure in hindsight that decision may have been regretted. Within two races he was winning a stakes race and in the following year became one of the many TC qualifiers for Mb in winning the San Felipe and the AR Derby. Side stepping the KYD he instead went to the Preakness where he ran fourth but then took the IND Derby and The Dandy on his way to a better run than the final placing suggests in the BC Classic. He was started quietly this year winning an allowance at TAM before launching back into black type company and he built beautifully after a good third in the KY Cup Classic to take the PIM Special and the grade one Foster. Things looked to be going very well but then he ran below par in both the Whitney and The Pacific Classic but bounced back last time out in the Lukas Classic, winning by a neck. Call it inconsistent, quirky, difficult, whatever you want but on his day, he is very good but he can also be just OK, so it is hard to be too bullish about his chances. At his best and if he gets up on speed, he will run a big race and with this gate he will have to get away cleanly. The draw will certainly play into his strengths though and there doesn’t look a ton of pace on here so I would imagine he will be up in the firing line for a long way, maybe stalking Bad Debt and there is no doubt he has the ability to go for home down the stretch.

2 Good Memories Mb Stables Gaffalione T 122 —

A three year old entire by Kashatreya out of Reminisce
Owned and bred by Mb Stables
2024 form: 01141024
Lifetime record 9 runs for 4 wins for $1925.000, WR rating 107

Didn’t make the KYD but instead went for the Preakness and the BEL winning the BEL with an impressive win from the stalk. After that BEL win, he went into the hat for top three-year-old, mostly against his own stable mates but hasn’t backed that impressive win up with a follow up just yet. He led up in the Dandy but faded as can happen when they are drawn wide and have to fight to get an early lead but then ran right up to his best in the CT Classic running second to Lunar Victory in his first race against older horses. He went in that PA Derby which was a real humdinger of a race packed with three-year-old talent and after stalking Blazing could not go with the top three ending up fourth. It has to be said that he has been a little disappointing since his BEL win, but we know he is a talent, and he could certainly turn that three-year-old form around with the right run. His works since that last run have been very good and just maybe the trainer has found a little something to get him over the line and he is given every chance with a super draw

3 Spankersville The Sidley Stud Hernandez R M 126 —

A six year old entire by Ginger Haggis out of Speedy Game
Owned and bred by The Sidley Stud
2024 form: 1310111
Lifetime Record 45 runs for 15 wins and $4853.000, WR rating 127

The top qualifier for this race if ever there was a horse that deserved a classic win it is him. A winner on debut and a stakes runner in April of his juvenile season there aren’t many older horses that have a career like his having both precociousness and longevity. His first stakes win came in 2021 in the Equistaff and much of his early career was on turf, but he switched to dirt to take The TAA Stakes at the BC Meet of 2022. After that win he went back to the turf for a couple of graded stakes wins but has since moved to the main track for some of his biggest wins. He could very easily be a runner in the BC Turf had he stayed on the grass as very few good horses at HRP have a hard preference for one surface or the other but here he is in the Classic and on what he has done this year he must be among the favorites to win. He started off this season with a roar winning the Pegasus World Cup and then the Gold Cup but for those first four starts of the year he was a bit hit and miss. That has certainly changed in his last three where he has gone bang bang bang taking the MTH Cup, the JC Gold Cup and The Woodward and nothing is coming into this race in a better run of form. He gets a great draw, and I suspect he will be in the second or third group around mid-pack in the early part of the race which suits him down to the ground.

4 Uranus Threshold Dettori L 126 —

A five year old gelding by Neon Wolf out of Prima Dona
Owned by Threshold, bred by Smokey Stover
2024 form: 1132001
Lifetimes record 33 runs for 10 wins for $1202.000, WR rating 108

This veteran of 33 races went through a purple patch which culminated in a win in the grade one SA Handicap which pretty much gave him a shot at this race, He then went off the boil a little running on but not really threatening a win until he ground out a win in the Premiers last time to give him the few points he needed to solidify his place in this race. He is a decent sort, not flashy like some but whilst others will be jockeying for position, he will be happily running his race and just maybe he could run into a place if others run into trouble.

5 Master And Commander Fractious Centeno D E 122 —

A three year old gelding by No Doubt About It out of Cameo Appearence
Owned by Fractious, bred by Allinthegate
2024 form: 10430221
Lifetime record 12 runs for 3 wins and $1207.000, WR rating 109

Bought as a two-year-old for $150.000 after winning one from three he has always struggled with early pace and has been a victim of the on-pace nature of the race engine more than once. After winning the Mucho Macho Man with his customary late run, he then missed in his next six races running on late for mostly minor placings although when I say minor placings we are talking about some of the top three-year-old races of the year, so it was hardly a failure. Rather than trying to change him the trainer wisely left him to his running style and that finally paid dividends in the California Crown last time where his customary late finish saw him grab a much-deserved win. There is no doubt this is an exciting horse to watch but as we have seen things need to work out perfectly for his late run to find the winning post in front. If there is a fast pace and he gets a clear run, then he could well be flying late for the win.

6 Walk Em Down Mb Stables Davis D 122 —

A three year old entire by Rotarian out of Power Walk
Owned and bred by Mb Stables
2024 form: 331201113
Lifetime record 9 runs for 4 wins and $2870.000, WR rating 118

There are a lot of exciting closers in this race so it will be frantic final two furlongs for sure and it will be the horse with the clearest run that gets the biscuit. This one has only has 9 races but didn’t run as a two-year-old so we have seen him quite a bit recently and I must admit it has taken me a while to warm to him after his poor run in the KYD. Even after he dived late to take the Preakness and then again in the Dandy, I was still unsure his closing style could make it three in a row in the Travers, but he once again showed his dazzling turn of foot and finally made be a believer. However last time out in the PA Derby he just couldn’t reach Blazing and Edward The Good ending up third but only a length behind. And I think with this extra furlong today he is in with a great chance of turning that form around. I think the jockey booking here is a key factor as is the draw as Davis won on him in the Travers and he will appreciate this gate. The three-year-old of the year awaits if he can find the gaps and there is no doubt he is a strong winning chance.

7 South China Sea Fractious Prat F 126 —

A six year old gelding by SunTzu out of Moon Rising
Owned by Fractious, bred by Barcelona Farms
2024 form: 1133413
Lifetimes record 16 runs for 8 wins and $1446.000, WR rating 111

After last year’s winner being the first six-year-old to win the Classic we have a bunch of horses that age in this race with a much better chance of making it two years running that last year’s winner was deemed to have. This one was bought for just $20.000 from a claimer and proved a brilliant claim as 4 months after that he was claiming his first graded stakes. That first stakes win came in the Tokyo City Cup, and he followed it up with a win at the BC meet in the TAA Stakes last year which really launched him into the top echelon of dirt routers. This year he has been admirably consistent never finishing outside the first four and winning the grade one Whitney along the way. Last time out he was a very close third in the California Crown perfectly supplementing his stable mate in running on the pace and on those last two efforts and a very good season he has every right to be a winning chance in this race. His racing style will be perfect for this race and a much easier watch than his stable mate and with only 16 races under his belt as a six-year-old still has a right to improve. If there is one here that ticks a few boxes as a winner at better odds it is this one.

8 Face The Lunatic Martyparty Lopez P 126 —

A four year old entire by Face Your Fears out of Partywithalinatic
Owned and bred by Martyparty
2024 form: 3130133120
Lifetime record, 23 runs for 7 wins for $938,000, WR rating 104

The trainer will be thrilled that this one squeaked into the field and he has shown in his career that on his day he can live with horses like these. He was a big disappointment in the Woodward last time but that followed a great effort in the JC Gold Cup where he was a strong second. Look, there is no point in me selling him as a top chance, but he is one of those that if he does end up winning, we could easily find examples of why he did. Good luck to this popular trainer who has plenty in the BC that they bred but are now owned by others so will be thrilled to get this one a run in the biggest race of them all.

9 Blazing Maxmillion Farm Dominguez Jo 122 —

A three year old entire by Blaze Ahead out of Imposters
Owned by Maxmillion Farm, bred by Power Racing
2024 form: 11101131
Lifetimes record 9 runs for 6 wins and $2295.000. WR rating 122

He is vying for the number one spot for the three-year-old crown here having won three grade ones already this season. Just one run as a juvenile after being bought for $125.000 from Power Racing the current owner has given him plenty of time to mature and it is certainly paying dividends now. Two easy early season wins preceded the FL Derby where he was impressive in his first black type run winning by a comfortable three quarters of a length. He went to the KYD where he was dealt a blow by the draw monster getting gate 18 but he was in the race for a long way eventually ending up fifth beaten just a couple of lengths. The trainer may have been justified in going for one of the other TC races but instead took the patient route again bringing him back to take the Winn and the grade one Haskell. He was outstayed in the Travers next up behind Walk Em Down and Master And Commander but then got his revenge on Walk Em Down in the PA Derby last time when he made all and held on gamely. The two times he has raced over 10 furlongs he has found the last furlong a challenge so I think he will need a bit more restraint than he showed in the KYD and the Travers but if he gets it right, he is a brilliant three-year-old champion in waiting.

10 Baffert Royalty Stables Velazquez J R 122 —

A three year old entire by Asset Class out of Be My Charm
Owned and bred by Royalty Stables
2024 form: 20243240
Lifetime record 12 runs for 3 wins for $2972.000, WR rating 104

Well, I have said it many times in this write up and many others that closers just haven’t had the opportunity to win consistently on this new engine and this one is a perfect example of that. Last year he was simply unstoppable and wound up winning the BC Juvenile as impressively as any horse I have ever seen at HRP. Then he returned for this season and soon the writing was on the wall. He only just failed to win the Southwest with his trademark flying finish but in the next seven races we saw the same thing from any draw, going way back and flying home too late. Fourth, third and second in the TC races he has amassed a staggering $1,420.000 in prize money this year without winning a race. With so many of the top chances here being closers and the instructions being so difficult to adapt to I think he will just have to run his race and hope he gets the clear run at the end. It would be great to see him win his first race in the biggest of them all and the Lord knows he deserves it.

11 Fire Chase Riggins Racing Geroux F 122 —

A three year old gelding by Chase My Tail Lights out of Awesome Fire
Owned and bred by Fractious
2024 form: 10130012
Lifetime record, 13 runs for 6 wins for $1727.000, WR rating 106

Difficult to assess as his recent races have been in sprints but this is a grade one winner over nine furlongs and ran a cracker to be third in the KYD. He was only a long length back in the BEL behind Good Memories, so it was a little surprising to see him go to an SAR allowance for a five-and-a-half-furlong sprint and then finishing a very close second in the Vosburgh over seven furlongs. Such is racing at HRP with these good horses seemingly being able to switch between trips and surfaces with little change in results and performance but his unusual preparation for this may actually be OK as the runs will have really sharpened him up. Riggins Racing picked this one up for $500.000 and managed to find him a spot in this race and what a last-minute investment that will prove to be if he wins. I think he has a good racing style for the race, but the draw will challenge him as he is a bit of a battler than one that can produce a big finish, and he will need to be within a couple fo lengths through the race. Good works, a great story should he win, good luck Riggins.

12 Hiei Fractious Franco M 126 —

A four year old gelding by Liberty Valance out of Third Eye
Owned by Fractious, bred by Patterson Stables
2024 form: 01001
Lifetime record 18 runs for 8 wins and $3852.000, WR rating 113

Like Master And Commander, he is a horse with a huge finish when he gets it right and he did just that in the Pacific Classic last time coming from the clouds for a one length win. His form figures show just how hard it is for a closer to be consistent on this race engine but his last win and his easy win in the New Orleans Classic where he brushed aside the KYD winner and Spankersville prove that at his best he could easily win this race. A stakes winning juvenile he won the BEL and Haskell as a three-year-old as well as nearly winning this race when flying home to run a close third behind Sexy Back. Looking at his 4 grade one wins and his effort in the BC I think he is a little under rated but that is certainly down to his running style which is very hard to get right on the engine. A definite winning chance but as he only seems to win when I don’t tip him, I will help the trainer out by avoiding saying he will win. The draw will be OK as he will go back so it wouldn’t make any difference where he was but Franco, who is in the saddle, will have to make sure the engine doesn’t push him too far back to give him no chance.

13 Berlin The Sidley Stud Smith M E 126 —

A six year old gelding by Ginger Haggis out of Flashy Mach
Owned by The Sidley Stud and bred by Patterson Stables
2024 form: 201120102
Lifetime record 25 runs for 10 wins and $837.000, WR rating 108

When you look at the races this one has run in and run well in it is amazing that by Classic standards, he has such a small purse total. In the top three in 18 of his 25 starts he is admirably consistent, but that consistency is due in part to his on-speed style and the bias towards consistency with those types of horses. He hasn’t always been a Classic contender though and it took him 6 starts and 2 trips to the free track to finally get a win but even then, he was claimed three times for under $10.000 in the next two years. It wasn’t till this stable bought him that he turned the corner and went from a $7.000 claimer to a grade three winner in 2 months and that is where his journey to the BC began. This season he has built on that success winning the grade three Challenger and Ali as well as the grade two Brooklyn, but he ran what was probably his best race when just going under to Wahpekute Sioux in the Lukas Classic last time. He does look just a shade outclassed here but, in a race, where so many of the big hopes are closers his on-pace style may just be an advantage, and he could end up surprising a few.

14 Bad Debt D J C Racing Stables Elliott S 122 —

A three year old gelding by Grandeur out of Doubtless
Owned by DJC Racing Stables, bred by Hippyheart
2024 form: 1341001
Lifetime record 12 runs for 5 wins and $4100.000, WR rating 109

It was such a memorable day for Hippyheart when this horse they bred themselves took the stables second grade one victory with a do or die effort in the KYD. It was one of those wins that only happens in horse racing, going off at 25/1 he went to the front on an off track and despite the best the generation could throw at him he held on for grim death for a nose win. His next start was in the Preakness, but that Derby win had drained him, and he faded tamely to second last causing the owner to find a new home for him. That new home was D J C Racing Stables who picked him up for $725.000 and we all waited to see whether this horse could make a comeback. Three months after his failure in the Preakness we saw him back on the track in the Travers and whilst he ended up fifth, he seemed back to his old self which he then turned into a brilliant win in the OK Derby. Going to the lead he trounced them that day winning as he liked by two lengths and suddenly, he finds himself in the position to win two of the biggest races of the HRP year. It is a story that is just waiting to be written. I suspect he will try and lead so this car park draw won’t be the negative it is to others as he will get the wide gate speed push and should clear them pretty comfortably if Elliott and his trainer are aggressive at the start.

15 Doc Rivers D J C Racing Stables – Also Eligible – 122 —

A three year old gelding by W W Durant out of Doctor Z
Owned and bred by DJC Racing Stables
2024 form: 4410020
Lifetime record, 12 runs for 3 wins for $977.000, WR Rating 104

A good sort on his day but a little inconsistent he will have to reproduce his LA Derby and Haskell efforts to stand a chance should he get in.

16 Living In The Matrix TwinTowersRacing – Also Eligible – 126 —

A five year old entire by Candlestick out of Common
Owned and bred by TwinTowersRacing
2024 firm: 4031040
Lifetime record, 31 runs for 6 wins and $542.730, WR Rating 103

A good win in the Suburban he isn’t too far off the best as he showed in the California Crown last time, but it is unlikely that he will get in to try and improve the length or two he needs to.

17 Justice Of The Peace Maletto – Also Eligible – 126 —

A four year old entire by Condittieri out of Always Charley
Owned and bred by Maletto
2024 form: 02043023
Lifetime Record: 27 runs for 6 wins and $456.620, WR 101

Well, a throw in and hope for the trainer and it is doubtful he will make the field but if he does, he could go down as the biggest shock winner the race has ever seen.

SUMMARY

Wow what a race this is, the best three-year-olds take on the best of the rest in a race for $7,000.000. The three-year-olds have such a great record with the 4Lb allowance that it is hard to get away from them but the olders won’t lay down in particular the likes of Spankersville, South China Sea and Hiei. We have an interesting blend three-year-olds, the tough on speed Bad Debt and Blazing, the exiting closers in Walk Em Down and Master and Commander it is sure to be a fascinating contest where the winner will have to have everything go right for them. So down to picking a winner, well it is hard to get away from the Mb Stables three especially as the draw monster has given them all every chance and they will be popular choices, but I am never one to go with the flock, so I am going with a choice of the heart. Whether you pick him or not there is one horse that deserves to win a race this year more than any other and that is Baffert, so I am throwing out a hail Mary as my first choice.

Categories: BC 2024, Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES, THE BREEDERS CUP