1 Fumble, trained by Mb Stables

After a brief two year old career where he showed some ability but looked only slightly better than average he was gelded after his first three year old appearance. That operation seemed to spark something in this son of Chai Lattes head because he then won four straight races culminating in the grade three All American. His biggest test came last time out in the Dwyer but a terrible wide draw saw him struggle from off the pace and he made no real show in finishing sixth. This is just one of a goldmine of three year olds in the stable and I think he is better than his last run which makes weighing him up even more difficult. He certainly seemed better when kept on the pace so this draw will be some help to him and with some nice works to his name I am sure he will be a big threat to some of the more established names in this field.

2 Kelly Rycroft, trained by Nakamura Stables

Another that was only just above average as a two year old he had a poor start to his three year old career with two terrible runs in Stakes Company. That prompted a fifty dollar sale and after a few months to freshen up he came out and just won a little allowance at RUI. None of that form was a clue to the great effort he put up last time out in the Queen’s Plate where he raced on the pace from a very wide draw and ended up second just beaten a length. That was a huge run and typified the inconsistency of the three year old form this year making these races very hard to predict. A reproduction of that Queens Plate run gives him every chance and some super mile works certainly paint a pretty picture but I would have to see how he does in this race to really get on side.

3 Lukas Duke, trained by Jkk Racing Stables

One of the stars of the two year old season he put himself in the TC picture with a couple of early grade three wins. He ran a great race in the KYD to finish in a dead heat for third but then struggled in The Preakness and BEL although he was right in the thick of things as usual. I actually thought in the run up to the TC that he only wanted to go this sort of trip so whilst he ran his heart out I always thought he would struggle in the classics. I worry that a tough career may be starting to take its toll although his works are still pretty strong so there isn’t any real proof of that. This is a tough customer and would be a popular winner and he would be in this with a big chance.

4 A One, trained by Eastern Equine

This one’s entry makes this race by far the most interesting of the day. Bought for $140 by Sanny Village he never really made the mark in the race to get into the KYD being beaten in all the qualifiers and not making the cut. On the ballot for the Preakness he got in thanks to a late withdrawal and made the most of a great post position to produce a shock one length win. If anyone was dubious about his sudden improvement he backed that run up with a strong finishing second in the BEL next up and has been working up a storm ever since. The big story was the fact that Eastern Equine forked out a seasons high of $1400 for him at the end of June and it is the weight of that expectation that he carries into this race. Is he worth that sort of money, well on the face of it he is probably one of the best in this field but he will have to win this pretty comfortably if I am going to join the band of supporters that think he is the best routing three year old on the site.

5 Mars, trained by Grimley

Another that went through the rigors of the TC he was a wonderful third from a horrible draw in the KYD after a brilliant win in the LA Derby. He was unlucky again in both the PRK and BEL drawing wide again in both races but like most struggled with the huge inconsistencies in this three year old generation in those contests. He got up on the speed in the PRK but weakened late and was then restrained in the BEL which didn’t suit him at all. A better draw and a smaller field will suit him today and if he is allowed a good stalk or an easy lead I expect him to run well. Is he as good as the best of these, well looking at his works I would have to say no, but he has a lot of heart and that could take him a long way.

6 Shed A Tear, trained by Mb Stables

Even after a gelding operation this son of Super Rosy has continued to be one of the most inconsistent horses in training. At his best, like his great second in the SUN Derby he would be capable of getting into the mix but at his worst like his last effort in the Winn he would be fighting for last place so you really are taking a coin flip if this is your choice to win this race.

7 Captain General, trained by Jerry Garcia Racing

An interesting entry in that he is lightly raced and pretty unexposed. Raced once as a two year old he soon got into winning ways as a three year old with two wins in his first two races. Those wins set him up for a tilt at the Day Mile Stakes at grade three. Although that wasn’t the strongest race ever he ran on nicely for a close fourth and signalled that he was on his way to being competitive at that level. He then got too far back in an ungraded stakes race at BEL but bounced back from a better gate draw to win The Long Branch by an easy two lengths. So on paper he is nowhere near the best of these but that has meant nothing so far this season so you have to look a bit further. His work times are solid and being relatively fresh is usually a good thing at this time of year so if you are looking for a lively outside bet then this may be it.

8 Awesome Ruler, trained by D J C Racing Stables

A decent two year old he made a good attempt at getting into the TC but just missed out when he failed in the SA Derby. He bypassed the KYD and took on the grade three Marne Stakes where he very nearly got amends by running a very close second to Lil Old Louie. His last two starts one in the Stephens and one in the NY Derby have been OK but were shouting mediocrity at this level and whilst he is a decent sort with plenty of ability I just feel this field is too hot for him.

9 Luckee, trained by Sanny Village

What a story it would be if this horse bought for twelve dollars beat the horse that the owner sold for $1400 and although improbable it is not impossible. He started off his three year old career with a win in The Jerome but failed in two subsequent efforts to make the KYD field and was withdrawn from the TC chase. An attempted freshener in an overnight race failed to produce a win but he ran much better to be fourth in the Iowa Derby and has since put in a very decent mile work. Sure the outside gate is against him, sure his form isn’t quite up to some of these, but what a story it would make.

SUMMARY

Since the warm up races for the TC through the TC and up to today there has been no consistencies in performance of any of the three year old generation. The problem is there are so many that are fairly equal in ability that we seem to see a different winner each time based on their trip or draw. So ignoring the form and looking at the draw you would have to like A One for this race but a little devil is sitting on my shoulder and saying we could be seeing an upset here. As always I will listen to the little devil and go for Fumble or Luckee to upset the form and take the money. Failing the upset A One looks a very safe bet with Lukas Duke and Mars getting the minor cash.

Categories: Grade II, STAKES ARTICLES