The Dixie Stakes – Grade II
PIM Race #13 1 1/16m Turf Graded Stake
Purse $250.000 For Three Year Olds And Upward.

It is often hard for a foreigner like myself to grasp the allowance and penalty system over a handicap race. In a handicap there never seems to be more than 3 or 4 pounds between the runners but in a straight stakes race like this one we see a ten pound swing in the weights, which is pretty huge when you consider they all seem to work similar times regardless of age, weight or sex. There does however seem to be some safe guards built into HRP to ensure that its not the bottom weights that win all the time and whilst those safe guards have seemed pretty loose with regards to age the fillies and mares don’t win to often against the males.
However, and this is key, this season there seems to have been a subtle shift in that more older horses seem to be able to compete with the weight allowance for three year olds and fillies and mares seem to be having a bit more success against the colts and geldings. Whether this was a conscious effort when HRP updated the race engine or whether it is just pure chance remains to be seen but it certainly makes these races more competitive than they have been in the recent past.

1            Beach Xaar           Diablo Diablo        Stein J

We start off with a three year old and one that seems to have a little to find at this level. Two gutsy wins over nine furlongs this year suggests he has found his groove and a 1.35 flat mile work suggests that with the weight allowance he can race with them so he may be ready to make this step back into stakes racing. His record at this level isn’t great being well beaten in the Summer Stakes last year and in two ungraded stakes races either side of that. His draw is perfect if he can stay close early on so he may just be the dark horse in the race.

2      Last City           Lemax Farms        Glaser L

This is an interesting entry because although he only has the one win to his name he does have two excellent grade one thirds from last year that light up his record nicely. He spent the first two runs of the year trying for the KYD as was a natural progression from his juvenile form but after failing he was tried on turf for the first time in the Transylvania last time. To be fair he was a little disappointing after stalking the lead from the one box and with just a 1.35 and 2 work over the turf mile i am not sure his form is heading in the right direction. Having said that we know he can do it and we know he has a great draw so it doesn’t pay to write him off.

3           Hollywood Hero      Nakamura Stables         Carrasco V R

Though this four year old has won eight races including the San Luis Rey this year he has not really managed to build a solid stakes record in his career so far. In his four efforts this year he does have two good black type wins but failed to beat the draw in both the FG Stakes and the Elkhorn around those wins. The draw will be key today as he is back on the inside so i expect a much improved effort and his work times and the weight situation put him very close to the three year olds.

4         Rosehunt        Arindel        Jaramillo E

This is a very interesting entry, a grade two winning three year old filly who comes in with the feather weight of 114Lbs. She didn’t win a race until her sixth attempt but since then has won the Appalachian and placed a close second in the Edgewood so the penny has clearly dropped for her. The stable is in electric form and her work times are close enough to others that with the weight allowance she will be a huge chance.

5        Commander Wellesley       Jive Inc.      Saez G

As we push wider we get a couple of classy older horses. This one took a long time to come right but as can happen at HRP when they hit that upward trend in their improvement curve they can go from good overnighter to stakes winner very quickly.
After a somewhat surprising second in the Kilroe Mile he went on to prove that was no fluke by running a close third in the Makers Mark last time out and those two pieces of form couple with his 1.34 and 1 mile work make him a very good winning chance.

6        Lets Do It Big Boy         RNP Stables        McCarthy T

This is a quick turn round for the old fella as he comes out of the Forrester Turf Classic just two weeks ago. There is no doubt that this seven year old is a class act winning ten races for nearly 2K but this decision to come here after such a short break is a very bold one. He wont mind the wide draw and if the pace is quick i am sure he will be powering home.

7         Afterburner          Arindel           Gutierrez Mario

The final runner is another coming off a two week break, interestingly this one comes out of the KYD. A stakes winning two year old he didn’t do particularly well in the Derby prep races but lined up thanks to his juvenile efforts in the KYD only to run pretty poorly. Now the interesting thing here is he has never run on turf but did manage a very nice 1.34 and 3 work on turf which puts him very close to winning this with the three year old weight allowance. So plenty of questions, the wide draw, first time on turf and a two week turn round but if he can find the answers he could be a huge threat.

SUMMARY

A very interesting race with just about any scenario possible. I am not sure the filly can win even with the weight allowance, although i could easily be wrong and the questions around the break that the outside two have had makes me wary about selecting them although both could easily do so. That leaves Commander Wellersley and Hollywood Hero but that depends on my confidence that the three year old weight allowance advantage has been dampened down.

Categories: Grade II, STAKES ARTICLES