First of all i think every one who took part in the DMR trials would like to thank John Henry for doing such a great job in organizing them. This game we play is made all the better by those who go that extra mile to make this little community special and our enjoyment more than just logging on and pressing buttons.
Secondly congratulations to those who won some of the amazing prizes on offer, either by luck or great judgement they managed to grab themselves just a few more vouchers to try and match the success they are already enjoying.
I am not here however to list a bunch of horses and owners and share out the champagne i am here to discuss some of the stats that are available to us and how they will effect us all going forward.
There were a total of 74 players that took part in the trials and they sent a total of 3806 two year olds to DMR to train over the five furlongs for a chance of the booty. Amazingly, especially when you consider at least ten owners sent less than ten that amounts to 51 horses per owner on average. When you consider these horses haven’t even raced yet that is a staggering amount for such a small community to produce especially when you see many many more than that racing every day.
Of the 3806, 2944 took part on the dirt track with just five being able to crack the 1.00 marker. It was interesting to see the four older horses work on the same day because it gave us something to judge that achievement by. All were older, all had wins and races under their belts and yet their works weren’t hugely different which tells a story for another day.
Anyway back to the two year olds. We will all be looking to see where we finished and some will be happier than others but it is worth noting that a vast majority of horses finished between the 1.00 and the 1.02.99 mark, in fact that figure was 90% which really does tell the story of HRP. It is likely that the remaining ten percent will find a bloody end or if they are lucky a paddock somewhere but what we will be left with is a group of horses that will be racing from the free track to the Breeders Cup with a pretty small margin between them.
50%, that’s 1465 horses worked in the 1.01 to 1.01.99 bracket with 744 or 25.3% falling into the 1.02 to 1.02.99 slot. Just over 14.5% managed to work 1.00.99 or less a total of 428.
The turf figures were pretty similar with ten or 1.2% breaking the 1.00 mark but an even bigger number got into that 1.00 to 1.02.99 mark coming out at just under 95%. Again 50% or 430 went into the 1.01 to 1.01.99 bracket.
Before we get too hung up on times it is worth noting that pretty much all of the top two year olds last year either didn’t run in the trials or didn’t finish in the top ten. In fact last years DMR Trails winner ran in a claimer a month ago and has only won a maiden and a small allowance in ten tries.
For me the interesting thing to look at is the top ten and how they look. Interestingly all of the top ten are between 15 and 15.3 hand high with the vast majority being either 15.1 or 15.2. Perhaps our first clue in the development as there are plenty of bigger and smaller individuals but none of them got into the top ten.
The biggest thing that struck me was their conformations. Eight of the top ten had a humerus angle of high mid with the other two having high or mid. That really does confirm the worst kept secret at HRP that many of the best performing young horses have the high/mid trait. None of the runners had a Lumbo forehand combination worse than average and all of them had either a mid or mid long stifle.
The rear triangle saw the most variance but everything else fell nicely into the acceptable parameters with even soundness represented by above average legs. This for me was the biggest difference, in the past its always been the ugly ones that were fast and then as time wore on they fell apart usually before their second race and the pretty ones started taking over, but now it seems ugliness is a thing of the past.
So what does all this tell us. Well for one it seems that either we are killing off ugly slow horses or we just aren’t producing them anymore. Is this a move by HRP to keep more horses in the game or encourage us to breed more or is it the fact that we are just better at weeding out the bad ones. One thing is for sure with horses all looking similar it is no wonder they are getting closer and closer on the race course.
So that is it for another year, now we move on to racing which is a whole other ball game. Good luck and stay safe everyone.
Categories: EDITORIAL, Racing Information
