The Dwyer – Grade III
BEL Race #2 1m Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $200.000 For Three-Year-Olds.

1 Ocala Secret Grimley Jaramillo E 122 —

He was looking like a promising juvenile when taking the OT Juvenile Turf and then running pretty well in the BC Juvenile Turf but was sold by his breeder to the current yard after a long break. With limited time to get him into the TC reckoning, Grimley took him to the Wood Memorial, but a lack of fitness saw him finish well out of it in 13th and we haven’t seen him since. A recent 1.36 and 2 work says he still has that ability he showed early on, but he may need the outing again. One to keep an eye on going forward.

2 Blue Duck Night Rider Stables Lezcano J 122 —

Bought in February for $600.000, his form since has been tinged with misfortune and he is a lot better than his form suggests. His running style under the new owner made him look like a ten-furlong plus horse but he showed pace to be a close second in the Swale over seven furlongs so it may be just a matter of instructions. If the trainer gets it right today, then this is a winning chance.

3 Natural Instinct Mb Stables Davis D 122 —

You don’t see many 8-length winners at HRP but the off-tracks can lead to some odd-looking results and that was the state of things when he cantered home in his WO maiden. He proved next out though that it wasn’t just the off-track that made him look good as he ran a close second in the TX Derby and I have a feeling this is another one of those Mb runners that need no experience and takes no working out when it comes to their ability. This trip should suit him perfectly and with a great draw he must start close to favorite.

4 Neon Town Pan Farms Walcott R W 122 —

Went after the TC and was unlucky not to get in after finishing fourth in both the Rebel and the AR Derby. The draw was against him in the Lexington in his last start for Broken Spoke Stables, but he still made plenty of ground to be a close up seventh. Pan Farms bought the son of Hollywood Cruz after that effort and gave him a confidence-boosting run overnight which he duly won setting him up nicely for this race. Today will be the acid test for his running style, but he has a good draw to stalk from and has a realistic winning chance.

5 Wrapped State Smokey Stover Gutierrez Mario 122 —

Just behind Natural Instinct in the TX Derby, he should again run close to that horse, but it is hard to see him turning the tables. Two good efforts to win in overnights before that stamped him a good sort, but I just have the feeling that he may need a bit more time before breaking through at this level.

6 Timeless D J C Racing Stables Husbands P 122 —

The further out your get in the draw and the quality doesn’t let up as we find the DJC runner in gate six. Starting the year with a third in the Lecomte it looked like a possibility we may see him in the KYD but after two good sixths in the Risen Star and the TAM Derby he had to win the Wood Memorial to get in and he could only manage third. Missing the KYD, he went to the Preakness instead but was given a run-ending draw and after making the running faded in the final quarter to finish seventh. His form is perfect for a race like this, but he strikes a tough field and will do well to make the top three.

7 Bold Ruler Fractious Cedillo A 122 —

Some of the others in this race tried and failed to get into the KYD but this one managed it with just a single points win in the Lewis Stakes. His run in the KYD however was forgetful ending up 18th but he wasn’t so very far away from the winner. Finishing inches behind Timeless in the Wood Memorial, I would give him a similar chance of getting into the top three.

8 Mellow Magic Riggins Racing Jimenez A 124 —

There are a lot of these that have been stepping out over further, so I like the fact that this is more of a long sprinter, and he may find his pace useful from the outside draw. He looked good in winning the Barrera Stakes but failed in the Stephens last time out so there are questions to be answered today but he may end up being the surprise package.

SUMMARY
This is a tight contest full of the near horses of this three-year-old season. It is tough to try and call but I have a feeling Bold Ruler may offer some value. Of the better draws none deserve a win more than Blue Duck, but he really needs to sort his running style out here or he may get left behind in the early rush.

Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES