The Essex Handicap – Grade III
OP Race #1 1 1/8m Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $500.000 For Four Year Olds And Upward.

1 El Gran Cambio Bears Stable Juarez A J Jr 122 —

If this were a plain Stakes race, then I would very quickly declare this one the winner. He has been outstanding in his last six races winning them all and moving from a $14.000 claimer up to dual grade three winner. His barn storming late style has been exciting to watch and his progress through the levels faultless. BUT, this is not a plain stakes race, it is a handicap and weight in these handicaps can be difficult to compare to real life. 5Lbs doesn’t sound a lot, in any normal race it would mean nothing or at least very little but in game where very little separates first to last it can mean everything. The gate and the jockey booking are on this horse’s side and that could bring the impost down to a point where he can still win.

2 Iced Mocha Arindel Castillo I 117 —

This is the sort of horse that is so hard to read in a race like this. The winner of just one from ten, beaten in a $15.000 claimer just a few months ago and yet working faster than the horse inside him that is a dual stakes winner. I see nothing in his form lines to warrant a 1.36 and 1 work and yet here he is as a bottom weight with a winning chance.

3 Smooth Moves Mo Mentum Farm Jara F 117 —

Talking of bottom weight and a winning chance here is another anomaly. The six-year-old was claimed after a claiming win at SA and has worked a 1.36 flat this year after breaking a ten-race losing streak in that last start. To be fair to him his form makes a little better reading than Iced Mocha having run consistently at high level, albeit in lower grade and I have said time and time again that consistency can be key in these types of races.

4 Test The Waters Mb Stables Garcia Mar 119 —

Mb manages these sorts of races better than anyone else and here he has the Preakness and BEL runner up sneaking into this race with just 119Lbs. Since then, he has been second in the Woodward and then a fair fifth in the BC Dirt Mile. This season he could’ve easily been two from two, but he was just caught in a competitive SA Optional Claimer last time after running out an impressive winner in the same grade on seasonal debut. A 1.36 flat work says he is as good as ever and as one of the few pacemakers in the field he could easily get away from the closer’s here and set up an unassailable lead.

5 Dog Nyam You Suppa Threshold Camacho Sa 117 —

Another one of those fast workers with little form to be competitive in this sort of grade he did take a competitive open allowance at TP last time in a fast time suggesting he may be improved by the move back to main track route races. A low weight brings him into it if he has found enough improvement to live with this class of horse.

6 Speter Sheffler Stables Reyes A A 119 —

Another proven stakes horse that gets in with a competitive weight and is working that 1.36 flat. The winner of the Ack Ack last year he finished in front of Test The Waters when fourth in the BC Dirt Mile when racing for Fractious. His two efforts for the new yard have seen him making late ground in two good races and he may be ready to get back to his best form today.

7 Ocala Secret Grimley Carmouche K 117 —

It is another one of those lightening workers with bottom weight but without the form to match the works, yet at least. A good winner in an TAM Optional Claimer last time in a very fast time he may be one of those rapidly improving five-year-olds that have found the improvement curve later in life. Of course, just like some of the others we won’t know that until after the race.

8 Investment Center TwinTowersRacing Eramia R E 121 —

Came from nowhere to win the grade two Clark and then ran a good race, again closing late to run third in the Mineshaft behind El Gran Cambio. Another that seems to have found his legs as a five-year-old, the only downside is that being wide he may end up getting too far back if his normal tactics are employed. The eighth winning chance in this race all the same.

SUMMARY

This is a tough race, as you would expect for a decent purse and really a case can be made for any of them. The key here however may be the race shape and pace. With so many closers and only one obvious pacemaker it does have that look of a race where Test The Waters could have this race won whilst all the others fan across the track and close for second. So, it’s Test The Waters for me making all with whoever gets a gap at the right time for second. For arguments sake I will go for the progressive El Gran Cambio to fill that spot, but it really will come down to luck.

Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES