The Essex Handicap – Grade III
OP Race #1 1 1/8m Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $600.000 For Four Year Olds And Upward.

1 Eight West Party TwinTowersRacing Jaramillo E 120 —

There is a nice purse up for grabs, but these handicaps can be tough on the class horses as the few pounds they have to give allowance winners often prove too much for some bizarre reason. This six-year-old has some very good form and from this gate on equal weights would just about be favorite to win. His problem in winning seems to come down to a rather inconsistent running style, he seems to either be on pace or way off pace and that could be down to the gaming buttons or the race engine as many of his wider draws seem to have resulted in an on pace running style. Todays inside draw may be a bigger handicap than the handicap, especially if he is chosen to go back but the intricacies of the race engine are not something we can do anything about, so let’s stick to his form. Beaten a nose in the grade one Awesome Again and only two lengths in the BC Classic he should be too good for these. After a decent effort in the Razorback last time, I see the only thing that can beat him is the race engine.

2 G O O B A Fractious Zayas E J 121 —

A very useful sort, he was a close third in the Whitney last year over this trip so clearly deserves his big weight, but like the horse inside him gets a draw that will negate some of that impost. Seasonal reappearance saw him win the Hooper from this gate but then he was drawn wide in the Razorback and after being taken back was never in the race. Back to a decent draw and with a sizzling six furlong work last time he must be a win chance despite top weight.

3 Hickory Smooth Mb Stables Hernandez J J 119 —

A seven-race winner, he has changed hands 4 times in a short career but in the last of those sales he was bought for $120.000 by the champion trainer so that certainly makes you sit up and take notice after his previous top price was $20.000. Went to TAM on seasonal debut for a fairly facile win but then went to the Haynes Stakes where he was only beaten a nose. Clearly the stable think something of this horse and he gets 2 and 3 pounds off the horses inside him which equates to about 3 stone in HRP land so he must be given a chance from a decent draw.

4 Last Laugh Mb Stables Spencer J P 118 —

Never one to miss an opportunity at a big purse, Mb has three entries here and all of them slip nicely into the handicap. This one is more an untapped potential than his stable mate but carries the magic bottom weight which can sometimes prove crucial in a finish. I think his biggest problem may be his pace over the nine furlongs, he runs like a mile and a half is his best trip so I certainly expect him to be running on, but he may get too far back early on if it is an even pace.

5 Chagrin Falls Mo Mentum Farm Maldonado E 118 —

A six-year-old who seems to be finding some movement in his improvement curve late in life, he has won four of his last six after being one from sixteen before that, so he is definitely worth a look. This level does look a little beyond him on exposed form, but I do like improving horses off bottom weight in these handicaps and he may just be the dark horse in this race.

6 Chais Thrill Mwn Racing Alvarado J 118 —

Won his maiden on the eleventh attempt last time which is hardly the sort of form you want to see coming into a big purse like this, but there is more to him than meets the eye. He had contested the SUN Derby at three but missed the whole of last year so his effort in winning his maiden first up this year was pretty impressive. I like him a lot and he is well worth the throw of the dice his trainer is taking today. If you want an interesting exacta, then box him up with Chagrin Falls for what might be a big return.

7 Lion Lake Mb Stables Rosario J 118 —

Claimed from Night Rider Stables for $32.000, the new owner then took him to SA to take a starter allowance recording a speed figure of 100. Not many people can do what Mb does with a horse and this looks like another that has reached Mb and been swung by the superstar stable. His works are very smart and of course he is off bottom weight so I think he may be the best of the stable trio here.

8 Kylo Ren Luz International Court J K 119 —

I have always thought this four-year-old to be a little under rated and though he gets a rotten draw here he does get in with a very favorable handicap mark. The winner of the Tropical Park Derby at the end of last year he looked good on seasonal debut when just failing to collar the winner in the TAM Stakes. The problem here is that this is a dirt race and not a turf race and every cent of the $300.000+ money he has earned has been on the turf. Now that fact coupled with a wide draw may cause you to write him off straight away but just wait there a minute and take a look at his 1.36 flat mile work a month ago. Now you see it, a turf runner switching to dirt in a handicap to get a low weight with a bullet work on a surface he hasn’t really run on…..now that’s the HRP hack right there.

SUMMARY

At first glance this may look like a disappointing race for a $600.000 purse but when you delve into it there are all sorts of interesting things going on. Kylo Ren trying to get a first dirt win, two class horses working the same as allowance winners but with more weight, plenty of horses that have been bought cheap and look like they have had some rocket fuel and a maiden winner that has only raced once in almost two years. In truth any of them could win and when they pass the post the people who back the winner will say “I told you so”, but in truth this race is as close to impossible at this stage as you can get to picking a winner. I will just end up betting my Disney dollars on the longest price runner because they pretty much all have a decent chance.

Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES