The KYD – GI
5/4/19
CD Race 2 1 1/4M – Dirt
Purse $3,0000.000
Three Year Olds
Well here we are for the 2019 horseracingpark.com Kentucky Derby! Once again it is finally time for the most exciting two minutes in all of virtual horse racing! Hopefully this year we have dry conditions as the race has been hampered by rain the last two years. In last years running we saw one of the most dominant Derby wins ever as Pretty Ferro with F Pennington riding won for trainer Estero Farms from post twenty in the mud. He had entered the race off of wins in the Gotham at Aqueduct and the Santa Anita Derby at of course Santa Anita.
If you are a person who likes to look back at history the prep with the most Derby winner is the Wood Memorial. The post positions with most wins have been post 6, 7, 8 and actually post 20. The jockey with the most wins in the race is K J Desormeaux with 4 total wins in 2004, 2011, 2013 and 2017. No trainer has ever won the race more than once but just for a fun fact trainers with the word ‘stable’ or ‘stables’ have won the race 8 out of 14 times.
1. Apples To Oranges (5-2-1-1 $548.400), trained by Mb Stables, ridden by R Bejarano
Total KYD Points : 104
Prep Race Finishes : 2nd Holy Bull Stakes, 9th Fountain Of Youth Stakes, 1st Wood Memorial
The first runner in the field and also the first of three entries from Mb Stables is coming into the race off of a win in the grade two Wood Memorial. He came from way back in the field that day and rolled by everyone to get up and win by a neck. He likes to come from very far back so a fast pace will definitely help him out. I think he has a legitimate chance to roll late and win.
2. Hollywood Latte (5-3-0-1 $644.040), trained by Nakamura Stables, ridden by K J Desormeaux
Total KYD Points : 100
Prep Race Finishes : 6th Smarty Jones Stakes, 1st LA Derby
The next runner in the field right here and he is also the first of two in the field that are coming from the barn of Nakamura Stables. This horse is coming into the race off of a win in the grade two LA Derby in which he won by a head that day. That was really a breakout performance for him and it cemented him as a dangerous horse in the race. If he runs the type of effort he did that day he could have a legitimate chance.
3. Lionking Invader (9-3-1-0 $355.200), trained by Estero Farms, ridden by R Chirinos
Total KYD Points : 40
Prep Race Finishes : 9th RP Springboard Mile, 6th Gotham Stakes, 2nd BG Stakes
Well right here is the first of three in a row for last years winning trainer Estero Farms. This one on paper seems to me to probably be his weakest chance at a repeat win in the race. He is coming into this race off of a second place finish in the grade two BG Stakes where he got beat by a nose. He seems like a talented horse to me but I just do not really see him winning unless he runs the race of his life.
4. Phooeys Queen Blue (5-3-0-0 $696.000), trained by Estero Farms, ridden by J Talamo
Total KYD Points : 110
Prep Race Finishes : 1st Sham Stakes, 5th Fountain Of Youth Stakes, 1st FL Derby
And now is the second entry from Estero Farms in the race and this one seems to be his best chance in the race on paper. He has won two Derby preps this year including the grade one FL Derby in his last start by half of a length. He ran a huge race that day and made himself one of the favorites in the race. if he can run the type of race he did in his last start he could definitely be the winner.
5. Sport Guide (9-2-1-1 $346.000), trained by Estero Farms, ridden by A A Gallardo
Total KYD Points : 30
Prep Race Finishes : 5th Pharoah Stakes, 1st Remsen Stakes, 9th Risen Star Stakes, 10th LA Derby, 3rd Ark Derby
And finally here is the third and final entry in the race by Estero Farms in the race and he barely squeezed into the race as he was sitting in spot twenty-two and points leader board. He has had a tough prep season with mainly bad efforts but he ran a big race in the Ark Derby to finish third. I think he is a talented horse but I am not sure if he is good enough to win. Maybe his last start was a big step in the right direction though.
6. Ardetha (6-3-1-1 $461.700), trained by Aer Stables, ridden by T Gaffalione
Total KYD Points : 60
Prep Race Finishes : 1st El Camino Stakes, 3rd Rebel Stakes, 2nd Ark Derby
The first of two runners right here from Aer Stables and this is a horse who definitely has a chance to win. He has been in the top three every single start since his first out and he has ran good in some big spots. In his last start he was second in the grade one Ark Derby where he was only beaten by half of a length. I think he might be a dark horse in the field and if he gets the trip he will be tough.
7. Zero Annuity (5-2-1-0 $233.600), trained by Nakamura Stables, ridden by C J Lanrie
Total KYD Points : 41
Prep Race Finishes : 4th Lewis Stakes, 2nd FL Derby
And the second runner from Nakamura Stables right here and he is entering the race off of a second place finish in the grade one FL Derby. he was only beaten a half length that day and he was closing on the end so the extra eighth of a mile will maybe help him out. I know he might not have the best resume but I think that he is a horse who might be peaking at the right time because he is getting better with every start.
8. Shake It Up And Go (12-4-2-2 $500.760), trained by John Henry, ridden by Alan Garcia
Total KYD Points : 22
Prep Race Finishes : 3rd RP Springboard Mile, 1st Smarty Jones Stakes, 8th Fountain Of Youth Stakes, 3rd Sunland Derby, 5th Ark Derby
Well here is the horse in the field who has the least amount of Derby points. This horse has only acquired twenty-two derby points and he was twenty-fourth on points leader board. He is a pretty nice horse but he just has not been able to beat the top tier three year olds yet and I just do not see it happening in here. The only was I see him winning is if there is an absolute pace meltdown and he gets a perfect trip.
9. Demon (7-2-1-0 $229.800), trained by Team 7 Illusions, ridden by E S Prado
Total KYD Points : 40
Prep Race Finishes : 7th Holy Bull Stakes, 2nd Wood Memorial
And now we come across the first of two horses in the race for Team 7 Illusions. This horse will be making his first start for his trainer though as he was bought for five hundred dollars about two weeks ago from Joshua Stables. His last start was a second in the Wood Memorial and he ran a pretty good race that day. He is not one of the heavy hitters in the race but he has an alright chance to win.
10. Rainstorm (7-3-2-2 $327.670), trained by Fractious, ridden by J Pimentel
Total KYD Points : 50
Prep Race Finishes : 3rd Gotham Stakes, 2nd Wood Memorial
Well here we have maybe the most consistent runner in the race as he has never ran out of the top three in his career. He has been running good all year and earned his way into race with a good second place finish in the grade two Wood Memorial. He was only beaten by a neck that day and was coming closer to the winner. He always runs his race and I do think that the mile and a quarter will not be a problem either.
11. Chrystal Believer (11-3-3-2 $865.200), trained by Maxmillion Farm, ridden by S X Bridgmohan
Total KYD Points : 105
Prep Race Finishes : 2nd Pharoah Stakes, 7th Breeders Cup Juvenile, 1st LA Futurity, 4th Withers Stakes, 1st San Felipe Stakes, 2nd SA Derby
One of the favorites in the race I think and this horse has been running pretty solid all year. He won the grade two San Felipe two back and was a very fast closing second in the SA Derby. He usually likes to come from far back so a fast pace up front will benefit him. I think that he will definitely be able to get the mile and a quarter and he should be rolling late.
12. Fear The Dragon (9-4-1-2 $897.070), trained by Mb Stables, ridden by A Beschizza
Total KYD Points : 70
Prep Race Finishes : 1st RP Springboard Mile, 1st Lewis Stakes, 1st Rebel Stakes
The second from Mb Stables that we come across right here and this may be his best chance in the field in my opinion. He has been perfect in his last three and has not been beaten in any of his Derby prep races. The only thing that concerns me about him is that he has not ran in about six weeks but maybe that has been Mb Stables plan all along. I think that he will one of the main dangers in here.
13. Ranger (7-3-3-0 $353.800), trained by Aer Stables, ridden by E Esquivel
Total KYD Points : 30
Prep Race Finishes : 1st Davis Stakes, 2nd TAM Derby, 5th Wood Memorial
And here is the other entry from Aer Stables right here and this horse nearly did not make the cut for the field as he is sitting twenty first on the points leader board. He had been near perfect in his career until his last start which was a fifth place finish in the Wood Memorial. I do think that he is better than that last performance and he should run a good race in this spot. He will have a chance in this spot.
14. Mr Cat Summers (9-4-1-1 $784.700), trained by First Street Stables, ridden by P Husbands
Total KYD Points : 104
Prep Race Finishes : 1st Ark Derby, 3rd Sham Stakes, 4th Ruby Stakes, 6th Risen Star Stakes
And right here is the winner of the grade one Arkansas Derby in his last start which earned him a spot in the field. He ran a giant race that day and honestly was a pretty big surprise to a lot of people. It was a nice way to earn his trainers first graded stakes win and his first Kentucky Derby starter. If he can replicate the performance from his Arkansas Derby win he will have a say.
15. Glitter Deity (6-3-1-0 $666.000), trained by Mb Stables, ridden by D Van Dyke
Total KYD Points : 100
Prep Race Finishes : 6th Holy Bull Stakes, 1st BG Stakes
And here we are with final entry of the three from Mb Stables right here. This horse is coming into this race off of a first place finish in the grade two BG Stakes at Keeneland. That was really a coming out party for him and I think it was a big step in the right direction for him. He may just be peaking at the right time and if he runs like he did in his last start I would not be surprised if he was the winner.
16. Red Cup (9-2-3-2 $651.840), trained by Our Athletes, ridden by F Geroux
Total KYD Points : 31
Prep Race Finishes : 2nd Iroquois Stakes, 3rd Breeders Cup Juvenile, 4th LA Futurity, 2nd Lewis Stakes, 2nd San Felipe Stakes, 8th SA Derby
Here we have the horse that has ran in the most points races in the field. He has been earning Derby points since the first points race that there was as a two year old last year. He was also a very good third in the grade one Breeders Cup Juvenile last year. He has not been able to win since the grade two Best Pal last year but he has least been knocking on the door. Maybe he can finally bust through in this spot.
17. Pure Authority (6-2-1-2 $248.280), trained by Joshua Stables, ridden by J R Velasquez
Total KYD Points :
Prep Race Finishes : 3rd Risen Star Stakes, 4th Rebel Stakes, 1st Coolmoore Lexington
The first of two entries right here from Joshua Stables and this is definitely his lesser chance of taking the win. This runner snuck into the race with a win in the grade three Coolmore Lexington at Keeneland last out. With the draw of his runner I would not be surprised at all if this horse is sent to the lead to try and set it up for his stablemate to come rolling late and take the win.
18. Beaver Wars (6-0-3-0 $220.000), trained by Team 7 Illusions, ridden by E J Wilson
Total KYD Points : 40
Prep Race Finishes : 5th El Camino Stakes, 2nd LA Derby
The second runner from Team 7 Illusions right here is the only maiden in this years field. This horse has not been able to win any sort of race but he did run second in the grade two LA Derby last race by a head to earn his spot in the field. He definitely ran the race of his life that day and if he can somehow repeat that performance in here maybe he could upset the field.
SCR. Not To Be Denied (10-4-1-1 $474.080), trained by D J C Racing Stables
Scratched
19. Beach Dandy (7-6-0-0 $2342.240), trained by Joshua Stables, ridden by J J Castellano
Total KYD Points : 120
Prep Race Finishes : 1st Breeders Cup Juvenile, 1st RP Springboard Mile, 1st Risen Star Stakes, 1st SUN Derby
Well the likely favorite in the field of twenty right here and he is the big standout in the field. Last years two year old champion and near perfect runner right here. He has been unstoppable since he broke his maiden and crushed in his last prep by four lengths. He got dealt a tough hand but last years winner was dominant like him and came from almost the same post position. He is my top selection and should be the favorite.
20. Cardinal Direction (10-3-1-2 $328.320), trained by D J C Racing Stables, ridden by D E Centeno
Total KYD Points : 21
Prep Race Finishes : 4th Iroquois Stakes, 6th Breeders Cup Juvenile, 6th RP Springboard Mile, 5th Risen Star Stakes, 3rd FL Derby
Well this runner draws in from the also eligible since his trainer D J C Racing Stables scratched his other entry to allow this one to draw into the race. This horse ran a pretty big race in his last start when he ran a good third in the grade one FL Derby. He had a tough post that day and was up right near the lead which is always a disadvantage. He has a very tough post but since his trainer scratches his stablemate he has to think this horse has a legitimate chance.
AE. Chai Bay (12-2-6-0 $311.800), trained by Serenity Stables
Also Eligible
AE. Texas Flood (10-2-3-1 $318.480), trained by D J C Racing Stables
Scratched
AE. Brady Is A Lady (7-1-3-0 $141.800), trained by Sharis Stables
Scratched
Summary
Well just like every year this is an exceptional race. There is a lot of very talented horses in this field and there could be a case made for just about any one of them. My top choice is going to be the outside runner Beach Dandy. I know he has been put in a tough post position but he is the clear standout in here to me. I think that he will be able to overcome the bad post and come away with the win. Good luck to all in this years KYD field!
19-12-4-11
Categories: TC 2015-2020
