The BEL – Grade I
BEL Race #10 1 1/2m Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $1,500.000 For Three Year Olds.

And so as quickly as the TC chase arrived it draws to an end and after this race eyes will switch to the BC and what this generation of three-year-olds can do about the older warriors that they will face.
We have no triple crown excitement after the KYD winner was beaten into second in the Preakness and very wisely after two tough races Quiet Return is missing from today’s line up. That is probably a great decision by the trainer as so often we see the rigors of a triple crown attempt tear the heart out of the three-year-olds and they are rarely the same horse afterwards.
We do see the Preakness winner Gorogue Laga return here and after his very easy win in that race it is hard to line up anything against him, However, as we see on a daily basis, and we saw in the KYD even the best horses can get beaten and if ever there was a horse who has been burning the candle at both ends it is this one. At 16hh though this is a brute of a horse, and I would imagine we haven’t seen the best of him even yet, so I am not sure it will be frequency of racing that beats him if anything does. The draw is my main concern, the one gate can be a blessing as 16 horses try and negotiate the first turn, but we have seen so many times that wider horses seem to run on that little bit stronger at the end on this new engine as the rail horse try to extricate themselves from pockets.
Having said that Gorogue Laga won both the Southwest and LA Futurity from the one gate so even that is a tentative negative. Of the rest well the BEL is the sort of race that pulls a performance out of a horse and sometimes it can be a bit of a one off. Last year’s winner Ocean Of Wisdom was as impressive a winner of this race as Gorogue Laga was in the Preakness but is now deactivated after falling into the form abyss. War Chant of course ended Howl Of The Hounds TC in 2021 but never won another race and is now retired. Brittle the year before, same story never won another race and was deactivated 4 races later.
So, we know this race can witness a one-off run, a singular day of brilliance which can be the end of a career, so we have to study this race really carefully before we settle on what does seem the obvious choice, here is how I see them as they line up for the last TC race of HRP’s anniversary year:

1 Gorogue Laga Arindel Saez L

Ten races and six wins this horse has been the three-year-old on everyone’s lips for a long time now and many will see him as unbeatable here. I think it is great to see that the contender for three-year-old of the year is not bred by one of the big stables, not out of a stallion that demands high stud fee’s but instead bred by Lagastable who has long been held in high esteem as a breeder but has never been one of those to face the press and brag of their exploits.
Arindel acquired this horse as an un-raced two-year-old for $150.000 and was maybe a bit quick to geld him although we all know that that particular click can work wonders sometimes, so who is to say how things would’ve worked out has he stayed an entire. After his throw away debut run, he never looked back gaining grade one honors in the DMR Futurity before a brave second in the BC Juvenile from a wide draw. As a three-year-old he quickly established himself as a major contender for the KYD starting favorite after wins in the Southwest and a narrow defeat in the LA Derby but though he ran a cracker in the KYD he could only manage fifth. He turned that around in no uncertain fashion in the Preakness last time and that win without a doubt will make him a strong favorite for today’s race. The trip, the weight, the draw, he should take all these in his stride, all he has left to beat is the AI and fifteen other hopefuls searching for their day in the sun.

2 Hiei Fractious Franco M

When I saw this one’s run in the San Felipe I put him quietly onto my KYD watch list, next time out in the SA Derby, I put him onto my BEL watch list and today he has been given every chance to live up to my high expectations. The reason I have thought so highly of him was how he ran on at the end of those two prep races. Both times he was getting trouble in running and both time he finished quicker than most everything else. The KYD, it has to be said, was a big disappointment although with his running style it also has to be said that it wasn’t a surprise as they left the gate. Going way, way back early he would have no chance on today’s engine but although he only ended up twelfth, he was again taking plenty of ground off them in the run home. So, stay on my BEL list he did and today drawn in the perfect gate he has his best chance of grabbing a big win.
Now that is not to say he is a shoe in here, the biggest problem with an inside draw will be a slow or average pace and this one getting buried out the back just like he did in the KYD. So, what can the trainer do here? Do they try an instruction that sits him closer to the pace or will that kill his chances by going against what looks like his preferred running style. Do they double down and try and take them back early and get them running earlier? Well I think, in truth, this horse’s best chances will not come from the trainer or the horse’s ability, it will come from the race engine and the AI and maybe one or two other instructions. If the pace is crazy fast then he could well get his chance to burn home late, if the AI reacts to the draw and keeps him closer to the pace then that too may be a blessing, but I am pretty sure it will be one of those things that has it happen if he is going to win today.

3 Prevent Mb Stables Elliott S

When you consider just how dominant this stable was in getting twice as many qualifiers as anyone else and leading the points tally for the TC chase it will be a big disappointment if they don’t manage at least one of the TC races. Again, their three entries here look great, and you could easily pick any one of them with some confidence and let’s face it, they must win one of these TC races, mustn’t they?
So really before we even look at other runners here we must find the best of the Mb entries to compare everything else to.
This horse and it is nice to see it running un-gelded, was super impressive in the SA Derby and notably Elliott takes the reins again today which may be a big plus. That was only his second career win after running third in both the Lewis and the TAM Derby and he went into the KYD a decent chance from a nice draw. To be even picked against all the other stable qualifiers showed some confidence but he was one of the least fancied from the yard and it seemed the punters had it right as he ran eighth in the end albeit beaten just a couple of lengths. KYD form is really the least comprehensive as far as chances in the BEL go, so whilst he was a bit lack luster in that race, I am willing to take him on the merits of his SA Derby win rather than that run.
I like the fact that he has been rested since the KYD, and I like the fact that he ran a 1.36 and 1 work time in the meantime, and he may just be the dark horse in the race that isn’t so dark.

4 Sirius Black Arindel Jaramillo E

The draw monster has been very kind to Arindel as they get three runners in the top half of the draw and whilst Gorogue Laga looks head and shoulders above them both we must take their chances seriously. He looked pretty good when beaten just a neck in the FL Derby a result that got him into the KYD in May and considering long odds and a sticky draw, he ran a decent race to be right alongside the Mb Stables Prevent at the end. He was certainly finishing stronger than Prevent that day and is favored by the draws today so it is not a stretch to see him getting the better of Prevent in this contest. Can he beat his stable mate? Well on works and what he has done on the track no, but the trainer won’t be hoping to beat the stable mate but rather fill some of the places behind him. I have a feeling he may be asked to go to the lead as he has done before and give Gorogue Laga something to aim for, that may be a good tactic but we have seen many front runners last home on this new race engine so it may also be a good fail-safe tactic.
I don’t think he can win but he won’t be far away.

5 Sinamaulu Arindel Centeno D E

Won the Ruby Stakes in the mud before finishing last in the KYD I just can’t see him getting into this race unless the rain starts to fall. If it’s wet it’s a whole new ball game and you would have to look at him again but if its dry then I don’t see him in the top six.

6 Spirit Believer Nakamura Stables Alvarado F T

He looked very good when taking the Holy Bull on a slightly off-track beating Sirius Black but hasn’t set the world on fire since. He missed the KYD after a fourth in the Fountain Of Youth and a seventh in the FL Derby so went to the Preakness instead. Positioned well enough early on from a good draw he faded away pretty tamely in the end and on the strength of that effort would be hard pushed to win today. I guess a bit of moisture may improve his chances but on a dry track he wouldn’t be in my top six.

7 State Of Fury Alydar Stables Loveberry J

The form lines for this one make tough reading because his inconsistency is the first thing that jumps off the page. A good enough two-year-old, his three efforts in the qualifying race for the KYD were pretty awful with his best being a seventh in the San Felipe. Fast forward to the Preakness and he is dead heating with the KYD winner, you see what i mean about inconsistency! His works also scream inconsistency, so he is a very hard one to weigh up but let’s not forget he is a grade one winner and Preakness runner up at his best and that puts him right in the picture for this race. It is just possible that gelding may help with his concentration but I applaud the trainer for not being tempted as his blood lines are such that he will be a great sire once his racing days are done.
I do wonder whether his size may be a sign of immaturity although his good two-year-old form dispels that although you feel it should be worth noting. Maybe he struggles in the hustle and bustle of big fields being on the small side or maybe i am reading too much real life into a line of code. Whatever happens today I think his name won’t be going away anytime soon.

8 Terran Destiny Barcelona Farms Van Dyke D

There is nothing more exciting that watching a deep closer fly home in the dying strides of a race, who can forget the days of Zenyatta and i must admit this one gives me butterflies in my stomach just like the great mare did. I first noticed him when he took a GP allowance as a two-year-old coming from nowhere to win and he quickly made my watch list for the KYD. As a three-year-old he did it again in an optional claimer at SA but it looked like, with zero points, that he was never going to make the KYD. Well that all changed in the blink of any eye next out when he took on the LA Derby. His now customary huge late run came just in time, and he beat none other than Gorogue Laga by a nose and put himself into the KYD, something that made me very happy because i felt he was something special.
The KYD rolled around, and he found himself drawn 15, not terrible for a deep closer but certainly a draw that was going to make it even tougher to get round a whole field. After a half mile the AI had him ten lengths behind in near last and whilst I was still hopeful it was beginning to look like an impossible task. 17th with two furlongs to run and seven lengths behind it was all too much to ask and although he finished fastest of all as usual and made up five lengths, he could never mount a challenge to the leaders.
So, roll on today and the BEL. He has an extra two furlongs to produce his miracle finish and although the race engine doesn’t like his running style I just wonder whether today will be his day. I hope he does it, I hope he is five lengths back in the stretch and flies home to win it by a nose because I would just love to be writing that review after this race.

9 Apache Rise Again Apache Warrior Vazquez R A

He had been super consistent through the TC qualifiers running third in the Rebel, The LA Derby and The Lexington on his way to the KYD and although we all knew him as probably the most honest and consistent of the runners that day, he was let go at 25/1. Those odds probably had something to do with the 18 gate although he has never had any favors from the draw monster that draw seemed particularly harsh. Once again though this horse showed all his guts and determination to run wide for the whole trip and still finish strongly enough to almost beat the eventual winner, failing by only a neck. That run was so good and so big that the trainer had no choice but to run him back in the Preakness and plenty of people threw money on him as he at last got a competitive draw.
Sure enough, though for a horse that was one of the most consistent in training, for some reason he was a complete no show ending up tenth and not running a jot, I say sure enough not because of anything concrete, more that the TC races are the hardest to win, let alone run the same race twice. So why did he fail in the Preakness? Well, if it was real life, we would say that the race came too soon for him, that he ran such a big race in the KYD that he was just too traumatized to run again so soon. Maybe if it was real life, I would say that and maybe there is something in his code to say that, but I am not convinced. His work times before and after the race were very similar, that could of course mean he is still too tired to run well but I think it just comes down to one of those things that happens at HRP. So, what of his chances today? Well, we know he can beat Gorogue Laga and without the KYD winner in the race there are form lines that say he can win so regardless of all the theories that may exist I don’t blame the trainer for having another go. The TC races come once in a lifetime of a horse and just maybe he could run the race of his life again.

10 High In Hollywood The Freakshow Velazquez J R

I feel this may be the forgotten horse in the race and may represent some real value to the punters. He is not from one of the high-profile stables and perhaps if he was everyone would be throwing their money on him because when you look at his last three races there is no reason why he can’t win. A strong finishing third in the FL Derby beaten just a half-length came completely out of the blue after an optional claiming win at GP and even after that huge effort he still started at 10/1 in the Lexington, traveling back again from his wide draw he flew home to grab victory by a half-length and booked himself an unlikely spot in the KYD. Once again sent off at 10/1 he once again went back and once again flew home to just pip Gorogue Laga for fourth and finally stamped himself as a very, very good horse.
So, what of today? Well, he missed the Preakness to come here, and I think that is a great decision as he seems to be working better than ever and has clearly done well in his time off. He once again gets drawn out a little so the question is one that always applies to closer’s at HRP and that is can he not only find the gaps, but will the new race engine have him close enough in the stretch to be able to unleash his powerful finish when the bias tends to be for those nearer the front. If things work out, he can win for sure and that would be some achievement for a horse that was being beaten in a SUN maiden at the start of the year.

11 World Of Outlaws Mb Stables Gaffalione T

The champion trainer can be excused for feeling a bit hard done by here as they see two of their three entries in tough positions from the gate. This is another that epitomizes the inconsistency through the qualifiers and into the TC that makes this series just so hard to compete in. The winner of the TAM Derby from a mid-pack position early on he then went to the BG Stakes where he ran incredible splits to make all and win. Then came the KYD,,,,Once again he went to the front, but he had to run hard from the gate to get his advantage and whilst in the BG Stakes over a furlong less he kept building the tempo in the KYD he got slower ad slower until eventually he was passed at the mile point running a second and a half slower than he had in the BG Stakes. He ended up a very tired 17th which to be fair to him was a pretty bad advert for his chances in the BEL.
However, if the inconsistency can work one way it can work the other and it will be an interesting comparison today. Is he a front runner again forcing a pace for his stable mates to take advantage of, or will he settle back a bit and save some energy, will he get to the front cheaply and just keep upping the ante or will his lungs give out as they did in the KYD?
Well, only Mb knows which one of those is planned and only the AI knows which one will be executed so whilst ignoring his KYD run, he would have a big chance on his previous two wins and that is all we can say as spectators.

12 Cross Examination Mo Mentum Farm Wilson E J

He looked very good wining the Risen Star and lost nothing in defeat in a closing fourth in the LA Derby but drew the dreaded one gate in the KYD and lost the race at the start. A slow start and being stuck on the rail are often the kiss of death in a small field but when you have 20 others to negotiate then as soon as his legs started spinning in the gate it was all over rover.
So, forget the KYD and move on to the Preakness, this time with the opposite problem of a wider draw he was sent forward to sit in the stalk. It makes me hope that in both cases he wasn’t on horse lead because that would just show the frailty of the AI when dealing with post positions so let’s just say he was asked to sit closer to the leaders for the sake of this form guide, As the pace built and with a wide effort he faded a little into sixth in a much better effort but one that didn’t have BEL winner written all over it.
So, what of his chances after two big races very close together? Well, some don’t do so well in that scenario, and some thrive and noticing his latest track work this may well be a horse that thrives on hard work. The draw again is tough for a horse that seems best in mid-pack, but he is better than his two TC efforts so far and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him right in there at the sharp end.

13 Battle Plan Mb Stables Lopez P

Well, I have to say this is probably the most promising horse of his age group and it seems only Mb can produce a horse like this to go through the grades and achieve so much in just three starts. I am a little surprised to see him here after he missed the KYD and the Preakness because after his Day Mile win, I thought the trainer had decided he was a miler but here he is and the question about his stamina will be answered.
Considering he hadn’t even run a race before March of this year it is almost mystical as to how he is here just three months later, and it feels just a bit surreal to be talking about him as the main danger to Gorogue Laga even running from an impossible draw. After his maiden win, he went to the Wood Memorial just two weeks later, breaking that old HRP norm of spacing races out, and trounced them becoming yet another KYD qualifier for the stable. He missed the KYD though and instead went to the Day Mile where he raced from a similar draw and managed to make it three from three with a game win. After not appearing in the Preakness, I really felt that the die was cast with him but here he is trying to maintain his unbeaten record in the BEL over twelve furlongs.
So, can he do it? Well, I it would be amazing if he could, and the question will be forever what if. But what a story, bought for just $11.000 at auction at the end of the year working just average times he was gelded a month later and well the rest is history and has so many comparisons to the great Howl Of The Hound that it is uncanny.
I want him to win, he can win and if he does well say goodbye to winning the BC Classic.

14 Royal Valor Nakamura Stables Beschizza A

He was a strong worker going into the TC qualifiers but never ran to his works and failed to make a dent in the TC chase. Roll on a few weeks and after a break he came out and lived up to those works with a workmanlike win in the TX Derby. We know the ability is there and just maybe the stable who is in great form at the moment has found the keys to success. The wide draw, the failed TC campaign he could be one of those overlooked runners that comes in at 100/1.

15 Deep State Sccj Stables Zayas E J

Aptly named considering where he is in the gate, I think this is another which, if he gets the breaks from the AI and the race engine could be a dark horse. He was a very good two-year-old and in winning the Springboard Mile became an early KYD contender, but things went a bit wrong in his qualifying races and he only just scraped into the run for the roses.
A poor effort in the Holy Bull caused some new race engine head scratching but he looked back to his best next out when a good fourth in the San Felipe. He again ran well in the BG Stakes to be third but had to sweat on his place in the big race. He did make the field, and I must admit had one of the most eye-catching runs in the race. A long way back out of the gate, so little chance on the race engine, he flew home to be seventh beaten just a couple of lengths and like many that day it looked as if there would be more to come in a race like the BEL.
I guess all we can say about him is that he can win, whether he WILL win is so far out of human hands that you just have to spin the wheel and hope 15 comes in.

16 Keep Me Apprised Alydar Stables Espinoza V

Finally out with the tumbleweeds in the car park we find this horse who will have the dubious accolade of being the horse that drew the widest gate in two of the three TC races, Again a look at his form throws up all sorts of head scratching and inconsistencies because after winning his maiden and then flying home at 23/1 to win the FL Derby he has been a complete no show in the KYD and Preakness and shows works that are slower than some of the claimers running at other tracks. BUT and this is important, this IS a good horse, and he is an entire and the important thing is that whilst his finishing positions in the TC races were poor the way he finished was not. Thirteen lengths behind in the KYD with four furlongs to run he was beaten just 4, nine lengths back in the Preakness at the same point he was beaten just five. So here is a horse that can finish, here is a horse that is crying out for 12 furlongs and here is a horse that will, if the AI agrees, have a clear run right round the outside of them all.
In a field that is just crying out for a surprise winner he has all the credentials you need.

SUMMARY

Well, there are two that stand out here. The obvious Gorogue Laga and the almost as obvious Battle Plan. On paper it should be between those two, but we have seen the paper shredded too many times to stop there.
There are of course 16 horses than CAN win but just one that will so whilst it should be easy to just stick the pin between those two it may well be worth looking at the likes of High In Hollywood, Terran Destiny and Hiei to spring the surprise win.

Categories: TC 2021-2023