KY Oaks – Grade I
CD Race #11 1 1/8m Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $1,500.000 For Fillies Three Years Old.

There have been 22 KYO’s at HRP so far making this the 23rd, so we have a long history to look back on to try and help us find the winner of the 2025 race. Unlike many of the big races Mb Stables has only won the race once and it is SRF’s own Paradise Stable that is the only player to ever win the race twice back in 2010 and 2011. That stat shows just how hard this race is to win and the list of previous equine winners also shows a menagerie of different types, some that have gone on to BC success and some that have struggled to reproduce their biggest day. Wasted Away was last year’s winner and we all know what she has gone on to do but the two previous winners in Yow and Exactly never matched their performance in subsequent starts.
Drawn six, Wasted Away closed hard to win in 2024 whilst Yow made all from gate ten for the 2023 win. Exactly came from mid pack in 2022, starting in gate 8 and Naples did the same from gate 10 in 2021. So, the pattern here is, there is no pattern, literally any style can win from any gate although that middle draw seems to have a higher success rate recently.
The 2025 race looks interesting as so many of the qualifiers have been won by closers making this field very much closing heavy. That fact may give an edge to an on pacer if they go slow early or it may bring in some tactical play from one of the stables with multiple runners. It will certainly be interesting as they turn for home to see which of the back markers can pick a path.

Here is how they line up for the 2025 KYO:

1 Merlene Ottey Night Rider Stables Davis D 121 —

Race record: 8-2-3-1 KYO Points: 50 WR: 103

After winning on debut, she lost her way a little being tried in sprints and on the grass before she finally found her mark and then things started to improve. Her last two starts in the Santa Ysabel where she was second and the SA Oaks where she was third certainly put her among them here and she has a decent loose stalking style that may suit the shape of today’s race.
The draw will be perfect for her running style and considering how low she was in the qualifier rankings; the trainer must be thrilled with her gate. She comes right into this now as a lively outsider and with her pre-Oaks work at 1.10 and 4 she must be looked at carefully.

2 Rain Rattle Bears Stable Pennington F 121 —

Race Record:11-7-1-3 KYO Points:156 WR:108

With a WR ten points below Credit Crime you would have to wonder if the ratings do mean anything how she could possibly beat the favorite. Well, whilst they may mean something I have watched enough races to know the ratings mean very little when it comes to a race, and you only have to watch a handicap race to know that. This is another filly that is pace influenced rather than positionally influenced as she tends to run her pace and reacts to the race pace rather than trying to hunt out a specific position. That pace has put her just worse than midfield in most of her best races which isn’t a bad place to react from.
This was a brilliant claim from a $4.000 sprint, there can be no doubt in that no matter what she does today but it would be one of the claims of the year if she should win this race, and win she could. The winner of seven from eleven it is the last three that has seen her become what she is today, starting with a closing third in the Suncoast and then the winner of the Busher before a brilliant win in the SA Oaks. That last win really opened a few peoples eyes but that last win also opened her possible frailty. She has been a closer over the longer trips and in a big field it is unlikely that she will get a trouble free trip, especially if the pace is hot and a whole bunch of them with similar running styles drop way off the pace and then try and find a pathway home. Like a good few of the big hopes she will need some luck around the home bend and into the straight but that will be a common problem here. If the pace is slack then she faces the other problem of where she ends up, but her style of running suggests she won’t drop out the back on a slower pace but should be mid-pack, so she has that advantage over the more positional based fillies.
Her win in the SA Oaks was one of the slower mile and sixteenth qualifiers after a decent mid race pace that saw the front runners run out of air in the stretch she finished by far the best and was impressive. With this perfect draw she could be cause for celebration for the KYO virgin trainer.

3 Tactical Spin Alydar Stables Geroux F 121 —

Race Record: 10-4-3-2 KYO Points: 125 WR: 109

A good filly last year she didn’t really sit up and get noticed until 2025 when she opened with a hugely impressive win in the Forward Gal. She followed that up with another win, this time in the Davona Dale and the impressive thing about those wins wasn’t just the ease of her victories but that fact she did it from wide draws. In her last start she dead heated with Soliloquy Sunset when second to Thousand Years in the Ashland, again with a sticky draw and was so competitive that it did nothing to dent her chances or her reputation.
The stable started the year off with a hiss and a roar and this filly was one of the early stand outs and there is no reason to think she won’t be a big contender especially from the best draw she has had in a while. Her works have been a bit stiff since her run in the Ashland but it is difficult to read works at the moment so I wouldn’t let that put you off a filly that has every chance.

4 Shes A Looker Nakamura Stables Elliott S 121 —

Race Record: 6-4-1-0 KYO Points:95 WR: 105

I must admit I am pretty high on this filly who has raced six times for four wins, two of them in stakes races. Her one defeat in her last five starts came in the Alexandra where she went down by a length to Credit Crime and a repeat of that puts her close to second best here, any improvement and she could be pushing the favorite. Her last start saw an impressive win in the Bourbonete Oaks where she came from off the pace for a cozy length win and whilst she beat a few non qualifiers that day she had plenty in hand. She did make the running in her second career start when taking her maiden so that could be an option and not a bad one in a race without too much early pace. This draw gives her options, and her works have been OK rather than as spectacular as they were pre the Bourbonette so no negatives there.

5 Heart Of Joy Royalty Stables Centeno D E 121 —

Race Record: 9-3-3-0 KYO Points: 60 WR: 105

A stakes winning two-year-old, she was bought in the Fractious fire sale for a hefty $500.000 so it was clear the new owner had a race like this in their sights. When she took the Las Virgenes on seasonal debut it was looking a very realistic goal as she raced in the stalk from a wide draw and fought on very gamely. Next up and drawn wide again she made her own running in the Davona Dale but was caught in the stretch after working very hard early in the race and did well to hold second behind the late flying Tactical Spin. She was drawn better in the Ashland last time out and once again went up on speed but was a shade one paced down the stretch and ended up fourth but only a length behind Credit Crime.
The big bonus for her is that she is one of the very few on speed types in this race and if it ends up a muddling pace, she could well find herself in a good spot hitting the stretch. The draw is fine, and her pre-oaks work was an electric 1.10 and 2 so plenty to like about that as well as a trainer that is finding some form and may just well be at the start of a wave.

6 Marina The Sidley Stud Corrales G 121 —

Race Record:12-2-5-1 KYO Points: 55 WR: 103

A decent and busy two-year-old, she was definitely seen as a possible qualifier for this race after a nose second in the Starlet at the end of the year. She didn’t have the best of starts to her campaign finishing an innocuous sixth in the las Virgenes and then a similar effort saw her eighth in the Santa Ysabel. She was better last time out keeping on nicely in the get to be a half-length second to Narcissa Malfoy in the Gazelle but that was one of the weaker qualifiers. She has ability of that there is no doubt, but she has had a busy career and hasn’t really stamped herself as a KYO winner as yet. She deserves her place in the line up but will be hard pressed to win even with the help of one of the best trainers in the game.

7 Confident Elegance Wood Duck Stables Lopez P 121 —

Race record: 8-5-2-0 KYO Points: 80 WR:105

This horse has beaten the BC Champion two-year-old Solioquy Sunset not once but twice and may well be the biggest threat to the chances of Credit Crime to justify favoritism. After a strong second on debut, she broke her maiden in stakes company and then went on to win four races in a row as a two-year-old stamping herself a very useful filly. The first time she tackled ground was on her seasonal debut as a three-year-old when she got home by a half-length in the Marthas Wish, the first occasion she beat the two-year-old champion. She was a bit flat next out in the Honeybee ending up fourth but then put up another big run to be second in the Fantasy just a half-length behind Thousand Hours and once more in front of Soliloquy Sunset.
The interesting thing about her three runs this year is not so much the performances but the relative times the races were run in. In the Marthas Wish and The Fantasy, her best two performances, the early pace was steady, and she came home strongly however in the Honeybee where she just whacked away for fourth the early pace was fast. I am not sure of the relevance of those races, but it certainly seems like a steady early pace will suit her and there isn’t much pace in this race. She could be the dark filly in this field.

8 Valkyria Alydar Stables Espinoza V 121 —

Race Record: 8-2-2-2 KYO Points: 85 WR: 103

This home-bred filly took the whole of her two-year-old campaign to break her maiden but she had been running in top end maidens so there were clearly some expectations from the stable. She didn’t really get noticed for this race until her seasonal debut in January when she flew home for an impressive win in the Silverbulletday. Those early qualifiers can often lead to a few points and no more, but this filly proved herself next out with another huge finish to take third in the Alexanda just a length behind today’s race favorite. She again backed that up with another great effort in the FG Oaks where she again finished fastest but couldn’t time it right to beat Credit Crime. The extra distance in this race is bound to suit and if she can time her potent finish right then today could be the day for revenge.
There are things that need to go right and things that needs to happen but if all the stars align then she would be one of my main picks.

9 Credit Crime Aer Stables Ortiz I Jr 121 —

Race Record: 10-6-2-2 KYO Points: 174 WR:118

There is a story here that is waiting to be written as this filly is by War Chant the horse that thwarted Howl To The Hounds TC hopes in the BEL of 2021. The sire was then sold by the owner for a massive $1,600.000 and never won another race before eventually being sold for just $75.000 to Sqb Racing after a failed season at stud. The owner that made that huge profit on the colt then paid just $5.000 to breed from the horse and turned out this filly who is the only success story out of 72 foals that the colt has sired. See I told you it was a story and one that has a quite brilliant story of sale and investment that is made even more interesting as the person behind it all is Aer Stables. For those that don’t know, Aer Stables has been playing the game since 2013. From pretty much day one they were a force to be reckoned with both on the track and in the forums. Now with just a handful of horses and what looks like an exile from the forums they come to the KYO with a filly they have been lauding since day one as the best filly in the game.
So, what about the filly? Well, you cannot fault her record and whilst she looks almost unbeatable there is always a way to beat the best at HRP, it is just whether the others find a way. She is very much a pace influenced runner rather than a positional one and that is a huge bonus but can also be a problem. That problem raised its head in the BC last year where the early pace was so fast that she dropped a long way back from her inside draw, running her pace as always. She flew home faster than anything but could only manage third so if there is any way to beat her it is a suicidal pace and the hope that she drops too far back to make up the ground. Having said that it’s a longshot but as far as I can see the only way to beat her.

10 Narcissa Malfoy Mb Stables Franco M 121 —

Race Record: 4-2-0-1 KYO Points: 115 WR: 103

After her decent run in the Busher where she kept on well for third in only her third start it was a bit of a surprise that she started at longer odds in the Gazelle in her last start. Clearly suited or at least not inconvenienced by the wet track she went back but came home strongly to score by a half-length over Marina to make this field comfortably. Her work since that run says she may have improved some more which, as she has only had 4 starts, is not surprising. This may be the unnoticed filly of the race as she hasn’t had the exposure that her stable mates have had, and it is difficult to fault her record although the Gazelle wasn’t the strongest of the qualifiers. The stable has a strong hand and whilst this one may look the third string, she may just be a surprise package.

11 Creepy Runner Party Mb Stables Velazquez J R 121 —

Race Record:10-4-2-2 KYO Points: 132 WR: 113

There aren’t too many in this field that can get anywhere near Credit Crimes WR mark, but this is one of them thanks to two grade one wins, one on turf and one on dirt.
She started her career on the grass with 3 wins as a juvenile which included the grade one Natalma Stakes and sent her to the BC as favorite for the BC Fillies Juvenile Turf. Drawn way out in that race she was hauled back to last by the race engine and it looked for a long time that she was going to stay there but she started a run from nine lengths back with a half mile to run and only failed by a nose in what would have been a breathtaking win. That marked her as a special filly, but the trainer loves the classics be it for fillies or colts and couldn’t resist setting this one on a path to the KYO. Her effort in the Golden Rod which saw her a closing third convinced the trainer it was worth a go and after solid runs in the Marthas Wish and the Santa Ysabel she came back to her best with a brilliant win in the grade one Ashland last time. That win was possibly the best of her career and there is a sense of timing about her that suggests today may be a race that she is ready to win. Her pre-race works are strong and whilst the draw isn’t ideal there isn’t a player in the game better than Mb Stables at getting it right when it matters
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12 Thousand Hours Mb Stables Prat F 121 —

Race Record:7-4-0-2 KYO Points:150 WR: 108

Ten points behind Credit Crime in the ratings she certainly won’t be as easy to beat as they suggest as she is a greatly improved filly this season that has gone from strength to strength. She has a good speed carry and sits just behind the pace setters which can be ideal in a race like this as she showed in a slowly run Fantasy last time where they went hard for home, and she was in the right place to grind out a half-length win. Before that she had handled an off track in the Santa Ysabel and that could be a key factor if there is rain around.
Of course, anything from this champion trainers barn is a chance in any race and of the three in this race she may sit second string but not by far and that makes her a big chance. Her draw is tough and the fact that the three Mb runners are drawn together is a conversation for another day but if she can get away and find a place not too far off the rail then this is a leading chance.

13 Soliloquy Sunset Nakamura Stables Gallardo A A 121 —

Race Record: 8-6-1-1 KYO Points: 125 WR 116

The horse that gets the closest to Credit Crime according to her WR mark she is a filly that has won six from eight and is a triple grade one winner. Last season she was just plain brilliant winning all five of her starts, The DMR Debutante, The Frizette and then finally the BC Juvenile Fillies in a fashion that seemed to make her unbeatable. Her running style and cruising speed are interesting, especially this year where she has been beaten in two races that had a very similar pace and then won the Honey bee in between that had a torrid early pace even though the finishing time was very similar. It just shows you how the pace of these races seems to influence the finishing order more than the style or track and going on all her best performances she will need a solid pace rather than a slow one if she is going to do the BC KYO double.
In her last start she was beaten by Thousand Years for the first time and Confident Elegance who is one of only two horses to ever beat her and has now beaten her twice. As I said earlier the pace was a huge influence in both her defeats, but she has the advantage if the pace is strong that she will get first run at the leaders before the closers really launch their challenge. Front runners are sparse here so it will take some innovation, or this race could turn into another slow race with a sprint for home and that won’t suit many of the top contenders.
There is no doubting her ability and class and the last time she was drawn wide she made all to win the DMR Debutante so write her off at your peril.

14 Fire Chief Bigking Gaffalione T 121 —

Race record: 8-3-2-1 KYO Points: 100 WR 106

Talk about one hit and you’re in; she wasn’t even a consideration for this race prior to the GP Oaks. Claimed in a turf sprint claimer at the end of the year her first two races for the new stable ended in an optional claiming win at TP then a very good run in the Hercomesthebride Stakes where she nearly made all in going down by a head on the turf. Still even with those two good runs and a smart six furlong work on the dirt it was a surprise to see her take the GP Oaks in such good style. This is the part where I think she may just have a trump card to play. Stalking the lead, she was strong from the turn and won going away by a length and is one of the few true stalking types in the field. As long as they don’t go suicidal, if she can follow that pattern here, she will have every chance. Her form in all but her last two races would barely see her in a stakes race but her last two have been excellent and she could be one for longer odds. The downside if there is one is that the GP Oaks was run in a slower time than some of the qualifiers and was not the strongest of fields but that aside, all she could do was win and she did that well. The car park draw will give her some outside speed push which should play into her hands as well.

15 Give Up On Style Asgar – Also Eligible – 121 —

Race Record: 8-2-3-0 KYO Points: 50 WR: 102

Pretty inconsistent through a hit and miss career the only effort that really gives her a chance here is her last start when second to Fire Chief in the GP Oaks. She chose the right tactic that day with a strong early pace and picked off every runner apart from the winner in the run to the line. That was a big run and her works before and since always said she had it in her. Could she be hitting form at the right time? or will she be another closer trying to pick her way through at the end and relying on a bit of race engine luck?
Her first piece of luck will be making the field from the first reserve post.

16 Escapist Williams9 – Also Eligible – 121 —

She will be a pace influence if she makes the field but would be a shock winner even though she has a third in the SUN oaks on her record.

SUMMARY

The big problem here is that we have no real contest for the early pace and so many of the fillies races this year have been won with huge late runs off a good pace. Will one of the stables with the multiple runners go and set a rabbit or will the couple of on speed types slow the pace and kick for home ruining the chances of the closers. It will be an intriguing tactical battle for sure but even with a solid pace it is hard to know which one of the closers will get a gap at the right time or which one of the leaders will be holding on.
The obvious one of course is Credit Crime, she has been outstanding this year, but she is not the only filly with a big chance and whilst I would have to have her as the winner it really wouldn’t be a shock to see something take her out.
Mb Stables will always be a force in these big races and has three very capable fillies here, one of those could easily down the favorite. Alydar has had a great early season, and I really like their two runners especially Valkyria. Nakamura has two fillies that are full of class and potential and then we have the runners from Bears Stable and Wood Duck Stable and both would be worthy winners. There are plenty I have not mentioned with a chance too and that is just how hard it is with these big races and whilst we may not be able to pick the winner, we will be able to watch what looks a great race.

Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES