The Holy Bull Stakes – Grade III (P2) [KYD]
GP Race #10 1 1/16m Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $250.000 For Three Year Olds.
These races are taking on a familiar look already as the big three stables have more than one runner, the inevitable fillies turn up and multiple runners from stables are grouped together in the draw. The winners are still just as hard to find though so lets get to it and find the next KYD hopefuls:
1 Kent Smokey Stover Ferrer J C
A filly from the filly laden harem of Smokey Stover, drawn one and already the winner of some stakes dollars will strike fear into the hearts of the others. Add to that the fact that she is hard fit after her trip to Hou to whip some low level hide she must be considered a winning chance. Fourth in the Alcibiades last year she wouldn’t be the strongest entry without the 5Lb pull in the weights but that has been making a difference on the big stage this year. With the three year olds struggling last year i wondered if the weight differences had been addressed but it seems as if it was it has either been reversed or they forgot to include the females who until recently had been having a tough time against the boys. Truth is we wont know until after this race, if the fillies win then we could be seeing the TC fields change very quickly, if not it will be business as usual.
2 Spiced Smokey Stover Hernandez R M
When you are doing well at this game the game keeps giving and Smokey gets the best two draws to help keep their start to the season going strong. The winner of four from six he showed himself to be one of the top routing males with a last gasp victory in the KY Jockey Club at the end of last year. He hasn’t run since then so may need the blow here but of he is on song he will certainly be a major contender.
3 The Skipper Too Arindel Juarez N
He was OK as a two year old but didn’t look out standing and that didn’t look much different in his first run of the year in the Jerome. He had a terrible draw that day and was sacrificed to the lead by the race engine so it may pay to ignore the effort especially as he has come out and worked a 1.36 and 3 since then. If ever there was a case of under the radar it may be him.
4 Jump The Line Crocker Ggs Ortiz I Jr
An interesting runner in this day and age of on pace runners because he has been a pretty effective closer most of his career and looked pretty good when storming home in the Mucho Macho Man last time. I do like a strong closer so will be cheering him on but hoping he doesn’t end up in group four when they sort themselves out.
5 Hot Dog South Shore Stables Gaffalione T
It is always interesting to watch the two year olds careers and this is a good example. A stakes winner over five furlongs on the turf the trainer went the obvious route of the BC Juvenile Sprint but after a poor effort there pretty much changed the geldings career 180 degrees and went for the KY Jockey Club, a dirt route, next time out. He was drawn wide and ran like a turf sprinter but unperturbed the trainer then tried the Sham Stakes over the mile and with a better draw he ran like he had been a router all his life and won with a good turn of foot. Where that places him in this field we will only really know when they cross the line but i liked the way he won his last start and he must be considered a chance.
6 Paco D J C Racing Stables Davis D
You cannot knock the perseverance the trainer is showing with this one although his chances must run out soon. He has been in some top races but as yet to really prove himself beyond be a really precocious type. A recent gelding operation may turn his form around so he is worth watching.
7 Bladamiro Arindel Maldonado E
Consistent enough and a strong worker he must be considered a chance because he hails from a stable in form and you cannot knock a bit of consistency in these big fields. I was a bit disappointed with him in the Mucho Mach Man because after he hit the front he didn’t really go on with it and on that effort i can’t see him beating Jump The Line.
8 Knockout Mb Stables Gutierrez R
We come onto the Mb Stables grouping, one of which won’t run so we just have this one and the filly. A strong worker as you would expect he had been doing well in the NY State bred stakes arena most notably when taking The Sleepy Hollow in the mud at BEL. By one of the up and coming sires he will no doubt have plenty of supporters but he is not a stand out and whilst he may win he is no nailed on certainty. He will see out every yard of this trip and wont mind rain so plenty of ticks in boxes.
9 Number Theory Mb Stables – Scratch –
10 Present Tense Mb Stables Gonzalez Ru
The winner of the Alcibiades she also ran well in the BC before a strong second in the Starlet making her one of the highest rated runners in the race. Her 1.37 and 1 work and the 5Lbs she receives make her a very strong chance and if both her and Kent can get involved in this finish we may see the dusting off of many fillies in the coming weeks.
A winning chance and a very interesting entry.
11 Tribal Politics Sccj Stables Gutierrez Mario
When this one won on debut i was pretty high on seeing him in the TC picture but since then, as often happens with debut winners, he has been a bit off key. He was OK in the Sleepy Hollow but in his last start was a very poor last in the Gun Runner. He got back from a bad wide draw that day and never made ground so from the same sort of gate here i hope he can get better placed early and give himself a chance. The dark horse but up against it of the race engine isn’t kind.
12 Sunshine Scooter Broken Spoke Stables Moran D
Getting out to the cheap seats now we find a nice son of Chai Latte. An on pacer he was fair when fifth in the Grey Stakes last time but one feels he may need to find some cover from this draw to be a winning chance. Strong works suggest he is certainly good enough but like all the wide draws you are relying on far more than ability to get a horse into the finish.
13 Madagascar Waldo Albarado R J
A solid and consistent type we may see him rousted out of the gate to try and lead this field after the same tactics brought him a strong maiden win over the mile. As usual on works there is very little between this field so the draw and the race engine will be deciding who takes the points to the KYD. A decent chance if tings go is way.
SUMMARY
Well as usual this is a problem wrapped up in a conundrum surrounded in mystery. Mb’s filly should win on form, works times and weight allowance and we have already seen him produce a female winner with some Mb magic this season. Outside her the other filly has chances but i am still not convinced there has been some fillies fuel injected so will still favor the boys. Of them however my favorite runners are drawn wide so the picture gets even muddier. If i had to settle on a result i would enjoy it would be Jump The Line coming with a huge late run to snatch it late, which probably means that same horse will start last and stay there or make all the running after a 44 second half mile !!
Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES
