up-and-coming Stakes ($125.000 Purse)
TP- For Three Year Olds
One Mile on the Dirt
January 20, 2024

A new stake has been added to the virtual schedule at TP for 2024, which is the Leonatus Stakes, and it will offer a $125.000 purse to be split amongst the top four finishers. That may make it pretty appealing going forward for up-and-coming racehorses, being that it is for three-year-olds at a mile in late January. It’s already attracted a mostly full field, as there will be eleven horses going to post, and it features the usual mix in a race like this of stake debuts and others who have been in bigger races but have not gotten the results as of yet. Since there is no history to speak of for this race, we’ll get right to meeting the field!

#1- Chicken Force (Delta Farms, ridden by F De La Cruz)- After being raced modestly over his first four starts and having success, Chicken Force got an upgrade in his competition level by running in an optional claimer at GP last month. He ran well there, finishing second in a photo and will get an opportunity for more here. Not bad for a $1.010 auction purchase!

#2- Heavy Truce (Waldo, ridden by T Conner)- Broke his maiden against NY-Breds in his fourth career start, coming at AQU in October. That led to an entry in the Grade 3 Hope Stakes at DMR, where he wasn’t great but not terrible, either. Unfortunately, terrible happened in the next start, which was an attempt at a turf race. There’s plenty of justification to throw that out, but that’s an ugly race line to support him here right after.

#3- Empire State (First Class Stable, ridden by L H Colon)- This is one of those horses that has been running in bigger races with inconsistent results. He seemed to be adapting to stakes well, as he placed second in the KY Juvenile and then an adequate fourth at the Grade 3 Sanford. However, some hope was lost after a dud in the Hopeful. Raced later that month in an allowance and was second but it’s interesting that he’s been idle ever since.

#4- Creepy Romantic (Broken Spoke Stable, ridden by C J Hernandez)- After three starts, Creepy Romantic would be sold in private sales for just $5.000. He was still a maiden at that time and broke that in impressive fashion in November against NY Breds at AQU, sending him into the $500.000 Great White Way for NY-Breds. There, he had the game’s most frustrating finish: fifth by a length. I do like his effort there to come from behind, and a little more distance might serve him very well.

#5- Extreme Flyer (La Canada Racehorses, ridden by A Cedillo)- Three of our first five runners have one thing in common: they were all bred by Arkansas Elite, but none are being raced by him. Those sales earned Arkansas Elite a combined $21.010, with $15.000 of that coming in the Extreme Flyer sale. Prior to the sale, Extreme Flyer was raced on the grass and had one win in five starts, but La Canada Racehorses had the main track in mind with them. This horse still has to prove himself a bit, but a work on Christmas Eve suggests that he may do exactly that.

#6- Spellbinding (Night Rider Stables, ridden by S Sanjur)- This will be the debut for Spellbinding under the guidance of Night Rider Stables, as the trainer picked him up with a $28.000 claim in late November. He ran second in that DMR race and will now be asked to run long for the first time. He doesn’t have any mile works to look at, but Night Rider has had time to figure him out and to realize that this is a good idea, so we’ll see how it goes.

#7- Dahmer (Mb Stables, ridden by Mar Garcia)- The last two races for this one took place at FG, a track where he won an optional claimer prior to taking part in the $100.000 Gun Runner. In that one, he found himself close to the back of the pack before a late charge got him up to third and missing by just a length. That has not always been his racing style, and with his trainer being a tactical wizard, I’ll be interested in seeing the approach from the gate with this one.

#8- Follow My Orbit (Fractious, ridden by A Jimenez)- This California bred has spent a fair amount of time running against State Breds, including a couple of stakes. Unfortunately, the results have not been there in those races, as even if he was not ready for the Graduation Stakes as a young two-year-old, he didn’t do much better in the King Glorious Stakes last month. This looks like a horse that will figure it out eventually, and this would be a good time to start.

#9- Kona (Big Guns Stables, ridden by G Corrales)- After three races of struggling to break his maiden, Kona would sit on the far for a while and would be gelded at the start of December. This would prove to be very beneficial, as in his first race after the geld, Kona broke his maiden, at a mile at GP with a 90 SRF. The horse is working very well, and will now get a chance at this level, and I like that trainer is taking this shot right now with him.

#10- Soho Rules (Mb Stables, ridden by R M Hernandez)- Picked up by the trainer for $3.010 in the June auction after he had made one start. Soho Rules has developed very well with Mb Stables, making three starts, with one win and two seconds. One of those runner ups came last month at the $100.000 Gun Runner from FG, a race that you could fairly say has very similar conditions as this one. He likes to get out on the lead, and I don’t think that is something that will change here, though he isn’t used to starting from the outside.

#11- Want Rum (Team 7 Illusions, ridden by J Talamo)- This is the only horse in the field that has made a start in 2024 already, as he ran and broke his maiden just two weeks ago right here at TP. Team 7 Illusions liked what he saw in the three length win, and is going to send him right back out there to run a mile once again. Given the convincing nature of the victory, would more of the same get the job done here, too? He’s working well, so you can understand why the trainer is running him back quickly.

Prediction: 4-7-11-10

— NS

Categories: STAKES ARTICLES, Ungraded