The IND Derby – Grade III
IND Race #2 1 1/16m Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $300.000 For Three Year Olds.

I love these three-year-old races after the dust has settled from the TC as we really get to see who being of qualifying in one or two races for a championship race that normally ends up being pretty meaningless by November. This is an even field and will be worth taking notes on as we see which improvement curve will rise the most.

1 Peace Pipe Arindel Hernandez C J 120 —

This was a TC contender right from his juvenile days and he came out in January to take the San Vincente and go on many lists as a possible KYD winner. Sadly, after that early win his season has taken a bit of a nosedive being unable to take home a cheque in his next four starts. Having said that there are some good efforts, and a recent 1.36 flat work suggests he may be ready to start back up the ladder. He was only a length behind in the AR Derby when fifth and ran pretty well closing in both the Day Mile and The Stephens and as we all know sometimes finishing positions do not reflect the ability of a horse. I think we may see a big improvement today and with the ace draw he must be a contender if the race engine goes his way.

2 Verrazano D J C Racing Stables Carmouche K 120 —

A bit of a later maturing type he had one chance at the KYD but was drawn wide and ran a poor race in the LA Derby ending up tenth. He was then given a bit of a break and resumed with a fair run in the Day Mile before a game third in the Affirmed. The stable is in form and this one’s works have been pretty solid giving him a good chance from the ideal draw.

3 Wahpekute Sioux Mb Stables Rispoli U 120 —

This was one of the three that the trainer left out of the KYD after he qualified by winning the San Felipe and the AR Derby. He ran a good fourth in the Preakness running on the pace as usual but seemingly finding the trip beyond him. Back to his best trip today, getting a great draw and trained by the magic man….well need I say more.

4 Silent Murder Mb Stables Elliott S 120 —

Of course, why have one winning chance when you can have two! This one missed out by a half-length in the SUN Derby which would’ve made him yet another KYD qualifier for the stable so had the advantage of a gentler win, It has gone well for him starting with a fine second in the Day Mile and then another rattling finish to end up second in the Winn. One glance at the running styles and this race can already be pretty easily worked out. This one will go back as the stable mate goes hard, either Silent Murder will get over the top late or will fly home to be second…..and so the story goes.

5 Cioppino TwinTowersRacing Davis D 120 —

I always admire this stables willingness to have a go and although this gelding has only managed the one win, he has competed in four graded stakes in his last five races. He ran nicely in the Bay Shore and then fairly well in the Day Mile and then flew home in the Met Handicap and wasn’t beaten too far in the end. This trip looks like it will suit, and I would never say a horse from this stable couldn’t win.

6 Royal Valor Nakamura Stables Beschizza A 120 —

Adds some more interest in this race because he had looked a bit luckless in his two attempts at KYD qualification and then in all came together when he won the TX Derby. Running from 14 in the BEL he ran home as well as anything after getting back ending up fifth beaten just two lengths. If things go right for him, he is a winning chance, but his hopes are very much tied up with the anomalies of the race engine.

7 Flat Cup Fractious Alvarado F T 120 —

He was building form nicely in lower grade but hasn’t been able to carry that through to graded level. Having said that he was only beaten two lengths in the SA Derby and the same in the Barrera so it is clear the ability is there if he can get involved at the right time. His last start was on an off track so ignore that, but his works are telling me he can win this. Much like Royal Valor though his chances seem to be intertwined with what the race engine deals him so whilst he could win it may be a bit of a coin toss.

8 Lossupra Kingelleinc Parker D L 120 —

Classic HRP here, claimed for $3.200 from a fair race claimer he has since gone three from three since and is working like a BC winner. It just goes to show what a gamble this game can be, you could claim 100 just like him and have very little idea which one was going to turn out this good….until they do. He took the Peter Pan last time which was a huge win and is working 1.36 and 1 so lets face it here is another winning chance.

9 More Twist Mb Stables Prat F 120 —

It’s a Derby so I guess we should expect three runners from Mb who couldn’t land a blow in the TC but is pretty good at picking up the consolation prizes. Here is a fun fact: this one was bought for $450.000 from Team & Illusions and Lossurpa was claimed from the same trainer for $3.200, yet Lossupra beat this one fair and square in the Peter Pan…it just goes to show you what a gamble buying a horse can be. He got it together in the Stephens last time making him a grade one winner in a grade three race which is very often a big tell for a winning chance. This race could easily be a one two three for Mb but what order they will finish in is any one’s guess.

SUMMARY

These stakes races don’t get any easier to win and this one features nine with realistic chances so it is hard to be confident. If the race engine is kind to him then I like Peace Pipe here but let’s face it, it is going to be very hard to beat the Mb trio or the Peter Pan winner.

Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES