09/07 The JC Derby [BC]
BEL Race #10 1 1/2m Turf Stake
Purse $1,000.000 (plus up to $66.000 for NY-breds) For Three Year Olds.
1 Sumi Gaeshi Maxmillion Farm Prat F
Claimed for just $12.500 at the end of last year the turf master has turned this one into a stakes horse weaving his magic once again. After a win in a one win allowance he went on to run third in the United Nations either through brilliant placement or once again a demonstration of the very thin line between classes. He flew home that day and was well fancied to win his last start in the SAR Derby but a wide draw made it very tough for him and though he finished strongly again he couldnt fins a way through the traffic. The draw today is better but his closing style will once again be challenged if he gets back too far although i have a sneaking suspicion a rabbit will be deployed making it less of a problem. Not the fastest worker but he has the staying power and ability to win.
2 Dead Madness John Henry DeCarlo C P
With his last two wins in the BEL Derby and Arlington Million and a reputation as big as his owners wallet this should be a dead cert from the perfect draw. There are so many ticks in so many boxes its hard to see him getting beaten here but its not beyond the realms of possibility that the mile and a half may test him and of course nothing at HRP is a certainty.
3 Wired Up Rampage Stable Rosario J
Considering he only won his maiden at the end of March he has come a long way placing third in the BEL Derby and fifth in the SAR Derby in his last two starts. Both of those efforts saw him closing hard and this trip should really suit him. True he has a bit to find with one or two of these but it doesnt take too many random happenings in a race for that to happen. He will certainly be suited by a rabbit.
4 Brazen Deception Nakamura Stables Hernandez R
This horse looked electric in the American Derby trouncing the field by five lengths but he came back to earth last time out in the National Museum Of Racing finishing fifth after having every chance. the fear is that he is better on a wet track but that is only a fear if it doesnt rain and even if it does his dry track form isnt that far behind them to get into the mix.
5 Creme Fraiche Maxmillion Farm Garcia Mar
This really would be a touch of magic fairy dust if the turf king could get this one to win this prestigious race. With just the one win and both his last start being over nine furlongs less than this you have to expect that he will be used as a rabbit for his stable companion. NOW having said all that this horse clocked a 1.09 and 1 six furlong turf work faster than all the best here so i wouldnt be writing him off if he was allowed to run his race.
6 Sunlander Estero Farms Landeros C
His last three runs make hard reading. Beaten eleven lengths, winner by three lengths, beaten eleven lengths again. That is a very interesting form line for a horse working 1.09 and 1 and the owner of a 100 speed figure for his win in the Snow Chief. I am not proud to say that i have NO idea how he will run today, i just wish his trainer luck.
7 Diplomatic Leader D J C Racing Stables Lopez P
I am not too sure about this one getting the 12 furlongs today as the last time he was stretched out he certainly seemed to tire in the stretch. There’s ability there but he looks to have too much to make up and the draw is certainly no help at all.
8 Spiral Mb Stables Court J K
This is where it gets very interesting, the champion trainer has three drawn wide and in these circumstances he is certainly no stranger to using a rabbit. In true HRP style this one went from a dirt maiden win at the free track to a three length slaughter of a good field in the KD preview Turf Mile, something that can only happen here but it is important not to get caught up with that fact. Though this one has only raced twice he is working as fast as grade one winners and will certainly benefit from two stable mates in the race. He could be the one.
9 Coco Team 7 Illusions Hernandez J
Bought for $400 any price tag like that tells you that this trainer is serious about this ones prospects and the son of Chai latte certainly brings the right form to the table to win this. Beaten a nose in the United Nations he had Sum Geishi behind and then he was third in the Arlington Million just a length off Dead Madness and closing hard. He demonstrated two completely different running styles in those races so his new trainer will have to get it right today with this wide draw but if he does this is a serious threat.
10 Oak Island Mb Stables Sanchez M J
Still a maiden with his last start being second in a sprint if ever there was a second rabbit in this race then this one is it. NOW hold the press because of course this is HRP and nothing is what it seems because this one laid down a 1.34 flat turf mile work the fastest recent mile work in the entire field. Oh how HRP never ceases to entertain.
11 Face Your Fears Mb Stables Hernandez B
And now we come to the serious benefactor if a rabbit is deployed but as we saw in the BEL Derby a wide gate can kill a horses chances even with a fast pace and this one found plenty of problems in trying to close through the field from a wide gate that day. His last gasp nose win in the SAR Derby last time was a huge performance but that was from gate two the perfect gate and he will have to run better again today but from a terrible draw.
12 Speeding Raujenny Night Rider Stables Davis D
Whatever chances this one has have probably been ended by the gate he has ended up with. Having said that the trainer on occasions has pulled more than one miracle win but he would need maybe his biggest one yet to get this one in the winners circle.
SUMMARY
This is a serious horse race and you have the feeling the BC winner will probably come out of it. Dead Madness has everything going for him but wont be suited by a probable rabbit so the best horse may not win. If he doesnt win and a rabbit isnt deployed then i would be happy to go with the most improbable winner in the field in Oak Island.
Categories: STAKES ARTICLES
