The JC Gold Cup – Grade I [BC]
BEL Race #9 1 1/4m Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $750.000 For Three Year Olds And Upward.
1 Laffin Parrot Mo Mentum Farm Gallardo A A
I have been a fan of this horse since that huge win in last years Queens Plate and have always maintained that he is as good on fast ground as he was that day on soft ground. Although only the winner of two since that win he has raced at the top level and has shown that he’s within a pound or two of the best routers in the game. This season he has even shown some improvement running his usual game races regardless of some terrible draws. His last three starts have all brought triple digit speed figures and one of his best efforts came from a wide gate in the Pacific Classic last time when storming home for third just a quarter length behind Combat Wombat at the line. He will settle midfield and will have to extract himself from this inside draw but if he does get a clear run there wont be anything trying harder in the run to the post.
2 Bronx Bomber Aer Stables Alvarado J
This horse keeps running great races but just can’t get his nose in front this season. He finished in front of Laffin Parrot when third in the Gold Cup in May and though i thought it his best chance for a win came last time in the Woodward and he was beaten he still ran a solid race to be third beaten less than a length. A win really wouldnt surprise and he certainly has the class factor but i do worry about the bridesmaid factor with him and whilst i would be happy to include him in trifecta’s i am not sure i can back him to win.
3 Flamenco Beach Mb Stables Lopez P
An on pace type he has come out of nowhere this year but that is mainly thanks to the three year old dominance over the older horses, but with only a couple in the age group here he must go on the list of possibles. He scraped home in a couple of allowances through the early summer but exploded on the scene with his win in the WV Governers Stakes and then a superb second in the Woodward last time when only beaten a head and finishing in front of Bronx Bomber. The draw will certainly suit his running style and he must be treated with respect in this very good field.
4 Stranger D J C Racing Stables Ortiz I Jr
This grand old stager was bought out of the Sanny Village stable in the early summer and has really enjoyed his time with the new owner running some career best races. Beaten just a head by Laffin Parrot in the Suburban Handicap he then ran really well to be third in the Whitney beating Bronx Bomber with a strong late run. He once again showed his turn of foot last time out when beating Flamenco Beach in the Woodward last time out. I think this trip will suit him better than Flamenco beach so i expect him to confirm that form and i am sure he will run his usual honest race and be right in the finish.
5 Seminole On The Map Racing Desormeaux K J
Has shown some glimmers of form but faces a very good field here and may be tested. Having said that he is working well and has a good draw to work with and if you look in amongst a few disappointing efforts there is enough form there to give him a hope. Probably his best start of the season came in the grade two CD over seven furlongs when he took on some fast horses and only failed by a nose to win. Whilst he has looked a bit vulnerable at further than a mile he was ridden with a bit of restraint over this trip last time to win an overnight race at DMR and if he can do the same at this much higher level then he will have a punchers chance.
6 State Police Smokey Stover Bejarano R
Bought for a thousand dollars in May he had a very big reputation and in his two efforts for the new owner has gone some way to meeting that expectation. Running from wide draws in both starts he ran a solid third in the Metropolitan Handicap under a big weight and then very nearly won the Pacific Classic just getting outbattled close home by Combat Wombat. He gets a much better draw for the first time for his new owner and he must be among the favourites to take this very tough race.
7 Dr Carson TwinTowersRacing Bravo J
Looked pretty good in the first part of the season winning the OP Handicap and being beaten a length into second in the Foster Handicap but since then he has hit a real down turn finishing way back in both the Whitney and the Woodward. Though his form has tailed off his works are still going well so its a real question mark as to what has gone wrong with him. If he return to his best he would have a place chance but those last two efforts were so poor you cant support hm with much confidence.
8 Indistinguishable Mb Stables Velazquez J R
Not many horses can say they have beaten the great Pretty Ferro but this one has done it twice, first by a nose in The Preakness and then by nearly three lengths when only beaten a neck in The BEL. Those two efforts put him very close to being the best of his age group but there was some questions raised in his last effort in The Dandy. Drawn well he closed up to win his race at the mile marker but was out battled to the line going down by two lengths in third. With nearly seven weeks off before that run it could be said that he may have needed the outing but its been a similar length of time since The Dandy so the same question will need to be asked. Without that run in The Dandy he would be a confident choice in this race but with that effort he has a little something to prove today.
9 Sporty Greyjoy Saratoga Stud Ortiz J L
In a similar way to Dr Carson this one has ht a real flat spot and its difficult to see him coming out of it in this race. A brilliant win of The Pegasus World Cup at the start of the year it looked like he was going to be in the top flight but after a reasonable effort in the Gold Cup when a close up sixth he has just tailed off. He was a little better in The Woodward last time but could still only manage seventh and this would be a big shock if he bounced back to form to win this.
10 Kiss The Snake Nakamura Stables Talamo J
A sprinter last year for Luz International he was bought for $200 by Nakamura Stables and has since been running over much longer trips with some success. Joint winner of the Ali he has since placed third three times in a row most recently in the Longacres Mile. Looking at the opposition it will be tough for him to get in the first three but he does have some ability and is working as well as any.
11 Combat Wombat Maxmillion Farm Hernandez R M
Its hard to have too much respect for HRP ‘form’ when you compare his sixteen length last in a TUP maiden and his head win in the grade one Pacific Classic 4 months later. But it is what it is and this three year old has won two graded stakes in only four starts, the last being that truly momentous effort from gate 13 in the grade one Pacific Classic. The way he won that race you would say he was some sort of freak of nature but i have been around the game long enough to know that he could just as easily run down the field today. It would be great to see him win this and set up a clash with Pretty Ferro in The Classic but this is another tough field and he would have to be a wonder horse and a bit more to do it again.
12 Centerpiece Mb Stables Bridgmohan S X
Second in the KYD, fourth in The Preakness and the brilliant winner of The Travers this is one of the toughest three year olds in the game but he will have to be ultra tough to win this hot race from the 12 box. He proved in both the TC races that he could run well from wide so its not beyond reasonable and his win in the Travers was quite dominant suggesting he has plenty left in the tank after a tough Spring campaign. It hard to place him here in a race where an ideal trip could see any of about ten winning the race but he has bags of guts and ability and should be in it for a long way.
13 Out On A Limb Jader Stable Pennington F
This may just be the one that is running under the radar in this race full of superstars. Second in last seasons BC Dirt Mile he has tended to run at less than a mile through his career but jumped from gate 11 to plough through a testing track to win the Whitney last time suggesting he may just be even better over a longer trip. He will drop back and rely on some gaps to open, but if they do i can see him taking a few big scalps in this race.
14 Edwin Drood Night Rider Stables Maragh Ro
This horse continues to be an enigma after a broken career under Sanny Village saw him rise and fall in the top ranks. More of a closer under his previous trainer Night Rider has tested him on the pace in his last two starts and to be honest think its been an experiment that has failed. I would like to see him back in midfield today and come with that withering run that he used to. At his very best he could well win this but from gate 14 it will be very tough.
SUMMARY
Wow, what a race. Almost the BC Classic it has just about every contender to Pretty Ferro’s crown and whatever wins this will emerge as the main threat to the great horse. I have a shortlist of 12 so its hard to find a winner although if we follow HRP trends the field actually only consists four horses that can win because there are only four three year olds in the field. Of those three year olds we have the proven talent of Indistinguishable and Centrepiece against the freakish potential of Combat Wombat and whilst they could very easily fill the first three places home there is much more here than the usual ‘which three year old will win.’ Of the older generation we have the tough and consistent types like Laffin Parrot, Bronx Bomber and Stranger who will give their all and the proven talent of State Police, Out On A Limb and Edwin Drood. I am going to buck the trend probably at my peril by going for State Police to win today with Out On A Limb causing some ripples in second.
Categories: STAKES ARTICLES
