The Keertana
CD Race #4 1 1/2m Turf Stake
Purse $160.00 For Fillies And Mares Four Years Old And Upward.

1       Mag Ol          Greyfriars Stable        Albarado R J

This could be the easiest hundred bucks this horse will ever make as with a field of just four and only one other rival that has done anything approaching winning a stakes race. There is of course, as there always is at HRP, one big unknown and for once it has nothing to do with jockeys or draw or just pure randomness, it has to do with the fact that this one has never run on turf and we only have two public lifetime works on the surface to go on.
So why do we see this four year old with only 11 races under her belt and that cost $400 after winning the FG Oaks on her second start going to the turf? Well, there is a lean in her conformation towards the grass and her last start in the La Troienne saw an awful effort that saw her trail in last after taking no part in the race. Those two things for a horse that was once considered an up and coming superstar are things that have been repeated at HRP many many times, suddenly and for no apparent reason a change from dirt to turf and the horse finds itself again.
So in my mind she has winner written all over her but it is not the surface i am worried about it is her running style. Here we have a deep closer and a notoriously bad starter two things which this race engine hates and in a race which is likely to look like a procession for most of it and will probably be ran at a false pace being last early on may be a big problem.

2      Flesh And Blood        Night Rider Stables         Geroux F

Well just as we are used to seeing dirt racers win in their first effort on turf we are also used to seeing claimers win stakes races and Night Rider throws this one in here in a field that may just see one of those unusual results. A six year old beaten in cheap claimers in her last three starts is not normally considered for a race like this but with only four runners anything is possible especially for a horse that seems to like being on pace. She shouldn’t beat two of these but i wouldn’t bet against her doing just that.

3       Made The Choice High        First Flight Stable        Gaffalione T

The other one with stakes form she is far more the turfer than Mag Ol with 34 races on this surface and 5 wins. Those stats and the fact that she has placed twice this year over this trip and in grade three class suggest she is the safer bet to come out on top today. Her works are strong enough but the problem i have is the same as i have with Mag Ol, in a small field she is a deep closer and these long distance races are often won by a front runner off a slower pace and if that happens today and the two hot pots are too far back they may not get there. So whilst on paper this really looks between her and Mag Ol i have a feeling the race engine may have something to say about that.

4       Our Corrupt Media       Maletto         Landeros C

It s hard to get too excited about this filly although she did win nicely at TAM last time this is a big step up in class and she should be fighting for third and fourth with Flesh and Blood. However this isn’t real life this is HRP and with both the main horses looking more like closers than leaders this race may well come down to the best tactics and how the race is run and that brings this one right into it. The interesting thing is that this one has been running like a closer too which really messes up my theories and we may be left with a two furlong sprint home and 4 horses in a row.

SUMMARY

For a four horse race this is far more interesting than it first looks. Firstly we have 4 horses that have run most of their races as closer’s or at the very least mid-pack sorts. So where does the pace come from? Will this be a crawl with a two furlong sprint at the end won by whichever horse is in front at that time or will one of the trainers take the initiative and send their horse early and try and force the issue. What if they all do that? Well the complexities of this race engine and the click and play nature of the instructions make this race far more intriguing than it should be but if for some reason it plays out like a real horse race then i can’t see beyond a clear exacta between the 1 and the 3 with the 1 just shading it.

Categories: STAKES ARTICLES, Ungraded