Las Virgenes Stakes [KYO]

SA         Race #6             1m        Dirt       Stake

Purse $100.000  For Fillies Three Years Old.

1 Avicea                   Mb Stables                                    Santana R Jr                  121

The form lines certainly don’t inspire but drawn the ace and from this stable you have to dig a bit deeper than you normally would. Her last two efforts have been on the turf so it may be possible to discount them but her only run on the main track and over this trip was a pretty uninspiring fifth so it is to the works that we have to go to find this one’s chances. The mile work was good, the 6-furlong work certainly in the ballpark and she will get an easy trip from the draw. Is that enough? Well, not for me but it certainly wouldn’t be a shock if she won.

2 Lucky Delite              The Sidley Stud                           Franco M                        121               

Like a lot of the stable horses, she started down at the lowest end of racing but since being brought up to this level she has been very consistent and has ridden the wave of the stable’s recent success. She ran very well from a poor draw in the Untappable, and I felt she was a good chance in the Silverbulletday a couple of weeks ago but was just a bit weak at the end. That could’ve been a fitness problem so with another great draw it may pay to give her a second chance with that run under her belt.

3 Chickadee Amadee               Nakamura Stables        Castillo I                         121

A winner of three from six she has been frustrating when upped to this grade being unable to cash a cheque all three times. She has shown enough to have another go here and a very nice six furlong work recently certainly says she can do well.

4 Joga                              D J C Racing Stables                 Pennington F 123

The first of two that carry a penalty thanks to a State Bred stakes win last time over six furlongs. This is her first time further than six furlongs so it is hard to get a line on her and both the trainer and us will know more after this race.

5 Breathtaking                 Big Guns Stables                   Dettori L                          121

Another tough read on the form book as she has had four starts and all of them have been on the turf. In the often-proven assumption that most horses at HRP do not have much of a ground preference we can look at her form and dirt work and come to the conclusion that she will run her race on the dirt without too much inconsistency. So, with that in mind I would say her two wins have been in competitive races, with the last one over this trip and those efforts are as good as most of the stakes form on display. She may get given long odds by the odds monkeys and that may be an added incentive to back her to win.            

6 State Of Hope           Alydar Stables                             Velazquez J R                121

Two races, one win and a sub 1:37 mile work, too good to miss, well it is till you notice that this is her first race on the main track. As I literally just said about the previous runner though that doesn’t have the same connotations as it would in real life here at HRP and she could well be a good win choice here.

7 Maui Hawaii              Choppy Inc.                                  Maldonado E                121               

A consistent sort, she was a very good third in the Untappable last time and has a good strike rate of 50%. She certainly deserves her chance and whilst I am not set alite on her chances she certainly has every right to be a top four hope.

8 Amy Street             Noblepark                                      Lopez P                           121               

She was pretty poor in the Santa Ynez last time but that effort was out of character and may have been down to the wide draw. Her gate isn’t much better today and she may struggle to find a decent run in this big field so whilst she does have a chance they are narrower than some,

9 Springboard              Williams9                                      Hernandez R M            121

Still a maiden, and whilst that doesn’t mean much at HRP this may be a step too far at this point in her career.  She has run well enough since being stepped up to the mile but I am not confident she can win her first race today.

10 Rotaloa                 Martyparty                      Bridgmohan S X                         121

Getting out into the cheap seats we find this progressive filly who isn’t out of place in this line up. An on-pace type so far, she may be able to use the wide gate catapult to get on-speed today and has already proven she can see out a strong mile. I like her if not today then in the future.           

11 Golden Warrior       Paradise Stable                           Smith M E                       121

Took a while to break her maiden and had to wait for a wet track to do it, so without her last start would’ve been seeming to struggle at this level. However, she ran a good race to be third in the Arnaz Stales last time which does bring her into it as an outside chance if she has progressed from two to three.     

12 Illusionary State      Nakamura Stables                    Bejarano R                     123               

There is a lot going against this filly today, a two-pound penalty, the car park draw, first time further than seven furlongs, but I wouldn’t be writing her off entirely. A sub 1:37 mile work, a sub 1:11 six-furlong work says a lot and if she had drawn inside, she would’ve been a top choice despite the extra weight. The wide gate speed push may see her lead and if by some miracle the pace is not too mad through the first quarter, she may just be good enough to beat the odds.

SUMMARY

An interesting race and an even field as usual, I think I may go left field for this and go for a couple who are unproven on this surface and therefore could be value with the odds monkeys. So, I am going with Breathtaking and Sate Of Hope as possible value bets.

Categories: STAKES ARTICLES, Ungraded