The Mint Million – Grade III
KD Race #5 1m Turf Graded Stake
Purse $2,500.000 For Three Year Olds And Upward.
1 Oh Brother Spankys Barn Gaffalione T 122
This six-year-old has been beautifully handled by the owner winning 9 races for nearly $2,000.000 in prize money. A winner twice at grade one, his most recent was in the Makers Mark Mile where he made all to beat a loaded field. Though that win saw him as a front runner as did his other grade one win in the Pacific Classic of 2023, he is not generally a front running sort and has quite a varied running style. I guess from this draw he has the option to push forward and hold the rail which is certainly a tactical option for the trainer should they wish to tinker with the gaming buttons. You never quite know what the race engine is going to spit out in these big fields, a soft lead could see him winning or a manic pace may see him coming from the back we just won’t know until the race unfolds. Whatever happens we can only judge him on what he has done and what he has done is good enough to make his presence felt.
2 Green Flag Spankys Barn Saez L 122
As usual with the random draw we see a stable’s runners grouped together not once but twice in this race, but Spankys Barn certainly won’t mind being handed the inside two draws for this huge prize. This five-year-old hasn’t got the record of his stable mate but his works suggest he has got some of that movement into his improvement curve as a five-year-old and his last three starts are certainly good enough to give him a live chance. A little one paced in the Read Stakes last time he looked good over a furlong less when gamely winning the Poker Stakes and on his recent form I would say he is a bit of a specialist miler. He could be one of those that sneaks a place at good odds.
3 Misting Winning Link Stables Corrales G 122
Bought from the free track and Spinetingling Stables via a claim there was a bit of a buying frenzy for those prolific winning free track runners, and they have proved themselves to be every bit as effective on the pay side, somewhat contrary to what we have been told about stunted development. Switched back to the turf last time he very nearly caused a big upset in the Fourstardave Handicap when going down by a half-length into second and is a really interesting entry for this huge prize. This is a step up from bottom weight in a handicap, but he clearly has a ton of ability, and a big run would be no surprise.
4 Seven Is Lucky Mb Stables Franco M 122
The six-year-old looked to be running through to retirement as he went to overnights this year bagging the one win from four attempts, The owner clearly hasn’t been planning that though as he went to ELP last time to finish third in the KD Preview Cup and now comes to one of the biggest turf races of the year. His works of course are stunning and exceed his efforts so far this year on the track but that sort of horse from this stable is always dangerous to write off. On his form I can’t enthuse but the works are very sharp, and he loves going the mile so who knows, maybe he gets the job of pacemaker and manages to last home for a share of the purse.
5 Apocalyptic D J C Racing Stables Elliott S 122
Well, we all saw what the stable did last week when taking the Nashville Derby with an outsider so all eyes will be on this one who also looks to be up against it in a tough field. Six runs without a win this year see the trainer go for the old HRP hack of switching surfaces to throw up a big performance and with his super dirt works and equally good turf works we could just see another huge outsider take the spoils.
6 Cage Rage Maxmillion Farm Hernandez R M 122
The turf king must love the introduction of these turf races with huge prizes as they look to add to their bank account with three entries here. The first of them is this six-year-old who just got up to win the Kelso last time after a closing third in the Poker Stakes. He is an iron cast type that always seems to run well in any grade and whilst he seems to lack that X Factor, sometimes these big races need more heart than ability to win. His works are as quick as anything, and his form says he will be in there at the end.
7 Parisian Arrow Asgar Silvera Ru 122
Another looking for that dirt to turf hack that seems to pay off so much as he goes for his first turf start after a stunning work on the surface. The winner of only two he has always promised a little more than he has delivered which is one of those formulas that can really work when switching surfaces for the first time. Two good recent efforts say that if he takes to this surface, he could be a real danger at good odds.
8 State Apples Mb Stables Velazquez J R 122
A lightly raced five-year-old that ended last year winning a TAM one win allowance and has come out this year for a grade two win and a close up sixth at grade one last time. This is another formula that can pay dividends, the lightly raced older sort and he hails from the great Mb Stables so you know he is not here to make up the numbers. He is unbeaten on an off track and that may be his best chance today as many here show no preference for the wet.
9 Prince Ferro Maxmillion Farm Jimenez A 122
For a horse that worked 1.34 flat it seems impossible that he has only won one race in the last two years but that seems to be the difference between works and racecourse performance with this race engine. He certainly has ability but like a couple of others in this race often promises more than he delivers but if all the i’s are dotted today, he can be exactly the sort to pop up with a career performance in these full fields.
10 Operation Mongoose Maxmillion Farm Bejarano R 122
An eleven-race winner, he has proved either admirably adaptable or a symptom of racing at HRP as he went from a five furlong win at CD to a grade three win on the same track at a mile and sixteenth within a month. That certainly proves talent, but it doesn’t help with trying to place him in this line up of specialist milers. His works of course are sublime running a 1:34 flat work time for this mile so he is yet another that could be romping home at long odds.
11 Hawaiian Lord Our Athletes Geroux F 122
Won the Fourstardave Handicap last time in a stunning 1.32 flat with 120Lbs on his back so is clearly in great shape for a seven-year-old. Strangely his previous win was in that same race 12 months prior with 7 defeats in between so that stat isn’t so encouraging but he did follow up last year’s win with a very close third in this race. I would expect him to run well again because he is clearly the same or better than he was last year, but he gets a tough draw this year and may end up in a similar position.
12 Sly Asgar Lopez P 122
Getting out into the cheap seats now we find this lightly raced five-year-old. The winner of the Muniz Memorial Handicap with his trademark late run he will need a suicidal pace over his shorter trip to go back from this draw and time his run right. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see that happen but there seems only one scenario that sees him with a chance and that is a big gamble.
13 Sick Boi Royalty Stables Curtis B 122
Another that will probably go back from the wide draw he is certainly working better than a one race winner this year but with this race engine coming from the back can be a real shit show. Like the horse inside him there is one scenario that sees him coming late and wide and where that puts him at the finish is in the lap of the Gods. A switch to turf here may just be one of those wild shots in the dark that pays off though as his works suggest he can find more pace on the sod.
14 Tom Kha Gai High Voltage Centeno D E 122
Gets the car park and will see more of the crowd than the rail but he has the ability to be a factor and did win the San Luis Rey from a similar gate. A consistent sort, he will be a factor in this race but with plenty of pace inside him may get hung out wide which may ruin his chances.
SUMMARY
It is hard to write about these races without getting a sense that it is a total lottery as to who will win. Work times are all similar with some of the lesser chances out working the better chances. They have all run against each other and have varying results and with the draw playing such a big part you just don’t know what the race engine will do with the pace. All I can do though is throw out what I like in the race and for me I see Oh Brother as that big race sort of horse who may just use his experience here to find a way to win. There are 13 other chances and all I can say is good luck to everyone.
Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES