NY Stallion Series – Fifth Avenue
AQU Race #3 7f Dirt Stake
Purse $375.000 For Fillies Two Years Old Foaled In NY.
1 Ashado D J C Racing Stables Juarez N
Won her maiden nicely and has since been on the statebred circuit picking up the Key Cents last time. She has always been favored by the draw and is again today so should be competitive but this looks a strong field. I think the trip will suit and with seven furlongs horses do have to be matched to it because it can be a funny sort of distance for them to run, neither a sprint nor a route. The stable is in fine form and this horse has never been out of the first three and has a 50% strike rate so there is no reason she wont be a good chance.
2 Portmore Night Rider Stables Zayas E J
The form says this is a speculative entry but the works say different so she is hard to write off even with just a maiden claiming win to her name. She gets the perfect draw which will give her an extra length but it is hard to get excited by what she has done so far.
3 Ruffians Legacy Fractious Beschizza A
Won her maiden over this trip which is a real plus but then disappointed in the Frizzette last time out. I am willing to write off that poor effort as she had a wide draw so going back to that maiden win and with a much better draw i think she will be much better today.
4 Dirty Storm Arindel Hernandez R M
It always pays to be a little careful with BC form next up as it can adversely affect some horses. This filly won on debut and then ran two super races firstly in the Schuylerville where she overcame a wide draw to get within a length of the winner and then in the grade one Spinaway where she came late again from a wide draw to be second. Her last two starts have been a little disappointing including in the BC Juvenile Fillies last time out but importantly she is back to seven furlongs today which i think will suit her. My biggest worry is that her works have a stale look about them and i wonder whether she is ready for a break.
5 Great Assumptions Smokey Stover Davis D
Ran consistently until finally breaking her maiden on start five. That is not always a bad thing but she failed to follow that win up at allowance level last time and despite some good works you have to doubt her ability at this level. The trainer is in good form and she is working well from a good draw so again she would be hard to write off.
6 Shining Moments RNP Stables Bisono J
A complete unknown quantity and probably the one in the race i am most interested to watch. She only has the one public work and that was a very nice breeze prior to her debut run. That debut run came in a turf sprint at the free track and she duly won fairly easily. She could be anything but we wont know until after this race.
7 Grazin At Sunrise Smokey Stover Velazquez J R
You would have to put this one on top as far as form goes but on works she is pretty much the same as everything else. Two from two she has since been close up in the Schuylerville, The Adirondack and then in the Frizette, those last two from a horrible draw. In my eyes she is head and shoulders above these and should win but i doubt it will be by more than a neck.
8 Firenze G Mb Stables Bridgmohan S X
When Mb Stables spends $100 on a horse that has failed twice in maidens you have to take it pretty seriously. Of course after the purchase she went straight out and won a good maiden at SA but then disappointed a little in the Maid Of The Mist next time. In true HRP style however she then came out an won an optional claimer faster than the grade one Spinaway was won in and has since laid down the fastest work in the field for 6 furlongs. If she has the required class gene she could easily win this even with a tricky draw.
9 True Identity Maxmillion Farm Cedillo A
Had Firenze G well beaten when second in the Maid Of The Mist last time but is still a maiden….go figure. On form she hasn’t got too much chance of beating the best of these especially with this tricky draw but like Mb Stables this trainer can pull these big races out of the bag with almost any horse so who knows. She will be flying late but maybe too late.
10 Fantasy Command Tiratzo Hernandez J J
Another one that peaks my interest she is unbeaten in two and won the Tah Dah Stakes last time with an impossible late run that suggested she may just be a wonder horse. Drawn wide over five and a half furlongs she made up five lengths in a furlong in a half to win by a head. Her works are no better than anyone else’s but for anyone that saw that last win she is certainly worth a bet even with another horrible draw.
11 Pivotal Role Mb Stables Bejarano R
Yet another runner from the stable and yet another one with fast works and consistent form at this level. She has contested the Seeking The Ante and The Gimma since her maiden win being beaten into second by a half length both times. That form is pretty good for this but both runs came from favorable draws and today she has to deal with 11 which may just be reason enough to leave her alone.
12 Silver Cobra Arindel Gaffalione T
Another working the same as everything else but with only one win from eight starts. You would think with the far outside draw and just fair form she wouldn’t have a chance but at HRP everything has a chance given a certain scenario and this one cannot be written off entirely. Her closing style may be suited to the wide gate and if there is an impossible early pace she may just come widest of all and nab them. That is the only scenario she can win though so it may pay to look elsewhere.
SUMMARY
Well an impossible race to pick a winner in so many ways so it may pay to mix form with potential to look for some value. Grazin At Sunrise is the form pick and Fantasy Command is the smokey so they will do for me.
Categories: STAKES ARTICLES, Ungraded
