The Obrien Stakes, Purse $250, Grade 2, 7 Furlongs, Dirt for 3+
Today at Del Mar it is their biggest race day of the year headlined by the Pacific Classic. However that is not the only top race that is on the card today. There are 3 stakes race on the card today and all of those races are Breeders Cup win and you’re in races. I will be looking at the Obrien Stakes run at the tricky 7 furlong distance. There 10 horses that are signed on for this event and the field is split evenly between 3 year olds and older horses. Let’s take a look at the field:
1-Java Ten (Allinthegate)- This 3 year old comes into the race winning 4 out of 11 lifetime races. 3 of those wins have come in his last 3 races in an N1x and then back to back overnight stakes races. Also 3 of his 4 wins have come sprinting with 2 of those wins coming sprinting on the dirt. He has yet to try the 7 furlong distance yet I don’t think distance will be an issue as he won last out in a mile race. He appears to have come out of his last race well and posted a solid 1:11 flat 6 furlong dirt work out in his only public work since that race. He has been in very good form as of late but this is a huge step up the class ladder for him, can he overcome that?
2-Oversell It (MB Stables)- He has won 5 out of 13 career races and started off 2015 on the Derby trail before getting back to sprinting. He was a Grade 2 winner sprinting at 2 but has also shown the ability to win going a mile so getting the 7 furlongs should not be a problem. 2015 Has not been to kind to him as he has managed just 1 win and 1 2nd out of 7 starts so far. The win came in an OC race 2 races back and the 2nd was back in his first start of the year. Last out he ran in the Grade 1 Crosby and finished 11th but only 2 lengths off the win. His August 7th work was very nice coming out of that race, but the slow work going 5 furlongs on August 18th has to concern MB Stables a bit. Can he get back to winning at the highest level?
3-Blown and Left (Sanny Village)- He has won 4 out of 16 lifetime races but is kind of an all or nothing type horse with only 2 other on the board finishes in the other races. He was a recent purchase for Sanny Village who has run one time since the purchase and missed the board. He has one public work since that last race and it was much slower than the public work before the purchase. It looks like Sanny Village is trying to do something different with this horse in hopes to wake him back up and get him winning at the highest level. Can the shortening up of the distance do the trick?
4-Reel Steal (Captinj)- He has won 2 out of 8 career races and both of them have been sprinting on the dirt. Both of those wins came back in his 2 year old year and this will be only his 2nd start in this season. That race was in a Grade 2 race going today’s distance where he finished on the board with a 3rd. He has been off since then and he has only had 3 public works since that race but each of those works have been solid. Will the 6 month layoff hurt him in this big race? We will find out.
5-Secret King (MB Stables) He has won 2 out of 7 career races including 1 win for current owner MB Stables off a fairly recent $300 purchase. He broke his Maiden in a Grade 3 race which was right before he was purchased then followed it up with a nice win in an N1x race. He then tried the LA Derby in July where he had the lead at a mile but ended up fading a bit and finishing 3rd. He is being shortened up a bit for this race in hopes that he will be in front at the time the wire hits. He has worked very well out of his last race and think that this might be the perfect distance for him. I think this is one you have to look really hard at.
6-Arctic Breeze (Aer Stables) He has won 4 out of 19 career starts with his most recent win coming back in his first start of 2015. He has yet to win a Graded Stakes race but I spoke with owner Aer Stables the other day and he told me that this horse is going to win this race and get into the Breeders Cup. It may be a step up for him to do so but he did post a nice 6 furlong work his last public work which makes me think that he may be ready to roll and step up in this race. There was one other time that Aer Stables has told me he was going to win and that was this year’s KYD so who am I to question him.
7-Wild Glory (Paradise Stables) He has won 7 out of 32 lifetime starts and 2 out of his last 4. His last 4 races have all been going today’s distance and he has yet to miss the board. The last win was back in May and it was in a Grade 3 race. He appears to have come out of his most recent race well as his work times are solid which shows that he may be ready to roll in this race. He is also proven over this distance which helps since it can be sort of a specialist type race. I feel that this is one that you have look at to be in the mix at the end.
8-Break Point (Diablo Diablo) He has won 7 out of 16 lifetime races and has hit the board in 13 out of 16 races. His most recent race was a win in an overnight stakes race which his first career stakes win. He has been slowly stepping up in class this year and has run in some graded stakes races but could not get to the winners circle. It took a drop into the overnight stakes to get that done. This is another step back up the class ladder and was probably done so off that nice win last out. He has posted some solid works off that last win so we will see if he can step it up and lock himself into the Breeders Cup.
9- Actually (MB Stables) He has won 3 out of 10 lifetime starts and all 3 of those wins have come in his 3 year old season. All 3 of his wins have been going exactly 1 mile in distance with 2 of them on dirt which should help him get the 7 furlong distance. He has tried Stakes Company his last 2 races and has finished 2nd and 3rd. The 3rd place finish was going today’s distance. He came out of his last race very well and fired a bullet work on August 9th at DMR in very fast time. That work on top of the fast race times he was involved in makes me think this one has a big shot in this race. The downside is the post.
10- Sweep The Event (D J C Racing Stables) He has won 5 out of 18 career races with 1 of those wins coming in 2015. He has won a Graded Stakes race at today’s distance and that was his lone with for 2015 which has to make owner D J C Racing Stables feel like he has a good shot here. He has been in good form this year running in all stakes races and only missing the board one time which tells me he should be sharp for this race. He came out of the last race very well and his most recent 6 furlong dirt work in 110 an 2 is near the top in this group. Much like the horse to his inside the problem I see is the outside post in this large field.
This is going to be a great race and there will be a new horse who punches his ticket to the Breeders Cup when it is all said and done. I am sure there will be 10 anxious owners eagerly watching this race unfold. Here is my prediction. 6-3-5-10
Warbucks
Categories: Grade II
