The Razorback Handicap – Grade III
OP Race #2 1 1/16m Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $500.000 For Four Year Olds And Upward.

These handicaps are always interesting not because a 6Lb spread in the weights should make any difference but because at HRP it does seem to make a big difference. We have a top weighted KYD winner and a bottom weighted grade three winner that has the same weight as a one race winner that has just broken its maiden. Like so many things here and in real life it is knowing how these handicaps work and finding a way into them with a race-able weight that gives you maximum chance.
No doubt this will be a fascinating race so let’s have a look at the 12 runners and try and pick the meat off the bones.

1 All Take Alydar Stables Curtis B 119 —

Drawn the ace we have a multiple stakes winner of well over 2K in prize money that won over this trip last time in grade three company. Sitting in the middle of the weights he is a six year old was a ton of ability although he has been frustrating at times. Going back to 2022 who could forget his last gasp win in the Preakness but that came off the back of a terrible effort in the KYD and an average one in the BEL which is a pattern that seems to be pretty common in his long career. His win last time in the LA Stakes was very impressive from a bad draw and in his last two starts he has recorded triple digit speed figures so it could be that he has found his way again. It is hard to be confident which Al Take we will see today but he is a winning chance for sure if he brings his A game.

2 Authenticator Wood Duck Stables Garcia Mar 116 —

This four year old has never been outside the top three but with only five starts and one maiden win in his fifth attempt he is a hard read for the form pundits. He gets in with a low weight here but then when you look at the horse he shares bottom weight with it is hard to see the huge improvement that he will need being enough. Having said that he gets the best draw, he has a running style that suits, he has been up there in all his races recording speed figures in the 90’s and his seven furlong work in February said he was more than a one race winner. It seems a stretch but I have seen horses like this win this type of race many a time.

3 Speter Sheffler Stables Lopez P 119 —

This seven year old is approaching the veteran stage now but with a 1.36 flat mile work before an eye catching finish in the Pegasus World Cup you would be a fool to think he is past winning a race like this. Bought from Fractious in that stables fire sale he had been a bit of a late developer having his best season last year as a six year old when winning the Ack Ack and running a close second in the grade one Whitney and fourth in the BC Dirt Mile. I have a feeling off a good draw with a fair weight that he could be a big winning chance if he gets his timing right today.

4 Cage Rage Maxmillion Farm Acosta J D 117 —

A fairly consistent six year old he hasn’t raced on dirt since 2021 when he managed to win his maiden at LAD on the surface so I have no idea how the handicapper has come up with his 117Lbs. But it is a low weight if not the lowest so it is down to us to work out whether he can improve on his 24 turf appearances with this first appearance for nearly 4 years on the main track. OK, so he has fair form on the turf but not good enough to win this but what is really interesting is his 1.10 six furlong work and 1.36 flat mile work on this surface. Those works are faster than most of these and comparable with the best which includes Derby and grade one winners on dirt so could this be one of those “handicap” specials we see so often? A change in surface late in life and into a handicap with a low weight, there was a time when this was the only type of horse than won these handicaps.

5 Excoriator Jerry Garcia Racing Prat F 118 —

This one was well fancied to win the KYD after three qualifying wins in a row but ended up sixth, running a solid race without looking the winner. I wasn’t sure he stayed the trip that day and that was confirmed in the Travers later in the year when he ran well before fading a little at the end. I think this trip is more to his liking and he certainly has the ability and the handicap mark to win but my only fear for him is the fact that he is a four year old and they can take a little time to catch up early in the year.

6 Lennon Mb Stables Hernandez R M 116 —

If there is one stable that knows how the handicapping system can work in a horses favor it is this one and they have managed to squeak this one in with just 116Lbs at bottom weight despite a sub 1.36 mile work and three graded stakes wins on the dirt. The reason he is rated so low is because all his big wins have come over sprint trips but with only two and a bit extra furlongs to run here and that scorching work you do have to think the champion trainer has found another niche runner in a big handicap. He could easily take this.

7 Quiet Return Allinthegate Velazquez J R 122 —

I think a look at this ones form pretty much sums HRP form up as we see surface and trip has meant very little to his success on the track. The winner of the BC Juvenile turf he then went to the main track to win the KYD and then most recently very nearly won the BC Sprint. In real life that sort of form would make him a freak but it is quite usual at HRP to see good horses run well over any trip and on any surface so the only real conclusion we can come to is that he is a top class animal. He lumps top weight here but his form deserves it and with only a maximum of 6Lbs to give away there is no reason why he couldn’t win under normal circumstances.

8 Eight West Party TwinTowersRacing Geroux F 121 —

The seven year old ended last year with a win in the Cigar Handicap carrying 119Lbs and gets an extra 2Lbs to carry here for that strong win. 121Lbs against a KYD winner with just a pound less looks a tough assignment but his works are good, he is the winner of over 1K in prize money and must be given respect in a grade he has won in before.

9 Parisian Arrow Asgar Silvera Ru 118 —

Another example of some odd handicapping as he carries 118Lbs with only one stakes win and that was in a state bred stakes race. Don’t get me wrong he is a nice type but there is little in his form lines to justify this weight and with an outside draw this looks a tough race for him. The ticks in his boxes are some solid works and consistent form and of course that win last time over this trip where he earned a 97 speed rating. I may be wrong but I think this looks tough for him despite being a good sort.

10 Stormy Sultan Luz International Luzzi L J 120 —

An eight year old but one that looks as good as ever based on his works leading into this. He gets a hefty handicap mark and once again you must question the handicapper as he has just one stakes win and that came in a state bred race with just five runners. To justify the 120Lbs his last three starts of last year were very good and although he didn’t manage a win he did very well to place in three grade three’s in a row. If it wasn’t for the weight and the wide draw I would be placing him much higher in the finishing order but I don’t think he can win today off this mark. Top four would not surprise though.

11 General Zod Royalty Stables Rodriguez A R 118 —

He was just a quarter length behind All Take in the Pincay last time and gets a pound for the defeat so that should make it very close between those two again. Most of his form prior to that run had been in sprints so it is hard to assess him but that effort right at the end of last year was very good and his sub 1.36 work this month says he has very much improved. His draw isn’t very good but I think he may be the dark horse in this race.

12 Individuation Mb Stables Moore R L 118 —

A multiple grade one winner and the BC Classic champion of 2022 you would imagine a weight of 118Lbs would make him an absolute shoe in in a race like this, especially when you consider some of the other horses he shares that handicap mark with. Again there is no-one like the champion trainer that knows how these handicaps work and they have given this amazing horse a chance to find his former glory. After winning the GP Mile last year it looked like it was going to be business as usual for the great horse that has won over 8K in prize money but he just didn’t fire after that and ended the year with a third at allowance level. His works this year include that illusive sub 1.36 dirt mile and a 1.10 flat for the six so on the evidence of that rather dubious line of information you could surmise he is back and will win this by open air.

SUMMARY

I love these races, great older horses going to war and with so many chances that it is impossible to be confident by any choice you make. There are four recent sub 1.36 workers in this field and they carry from the top weight to the bottom weight with a couple in between so on works alone you would have to take the bottom weighted of those in Lennon as the clear winner. If you looked at an overall record then Individuation would win with just 118Lbs but if you went with recent form, well you would probably go with something like Quiet Return, Eight West Party or All Take. So you take your pick, form, works or overall ability? Well having written for so long about these handicaps and seen so many bottom weights win I am leaning towards Lennon despite his lack of form in routes but there really is a case for any of them here.

Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES