The Rebel – Grade II [KYD]
OP Race #2 1 1/16m Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $1,000.000 For Three Year Olds.
1 Charlemagnes Command John Henry Pennington F
This one attracted a nice price tag when taking the ungraded Smooth Air Stakes at the end of last year as a maiden. That was only his second start and he was all sorts of game in holding on by a nose after running right up on the speed throughout. After buying him for $238.000, the new owner sent him to the Withers where he was again on the speed but this time weakened to be tenth. That was his first start for the season and only the third in his career so we should probably excuse him and give him another chance but i am not sure he really stays this trip on speed and the inside gate will make it tough for him to do anything else.
2 Instagooglefacetweet John Henry Gallardo A A
The second stable runner and probably the best of their trio despite only costing a fraction of the other stable prospects. He struggled a little last year after a good maiden win but has gradually improved in three efforts this year and will certainly be one of the fittest in the race. Drawn in the Golden triangle he should be able to take up a good position just behind the pace and if he can reproduce his very close second in the Southwest he will be right in at the finish here.
3 Fire N Fury D J C Racing Stables Beschizza A
The first of the stable entries he is following a stable trend and could just be the surprise package in the race. He has yet to run past six furlongs on the track but that is something the stable has had success with this season and the way he won his maiden last time suggests he is way above average. Whilst he may only have form sprinting his works over a mle suggest he will lap it up and with the golden triangle draw he may end up being yet another stable KYD hope.
4 Pure Authority Joshua Stables Ortiz I Jr
Broke his maiden easily on seasonal debut and looked the type that would love a test of stamina. An outside draw in his next start however made him look like a stamina deficient sprinter but that run was in the Risen Star so he can be forgiven the defeat. He ended up third which was a great effort considering and his works since suggest he is only going to get better. He gets into the golden triangle of draws so will be able to sit just off the pace and is sure to be right there at the end.
5 Cherokee Reward Estero Farms Chirinos R
Talking of wide draws this one has had three in a row but has run well enough to suggest this better draw will see him very close to winning. Only beaten a half length when second in the Lecompt he was again wide in the Southwest and was taken way out the back by the AI eventually closing like a train for fourth. Its a pattern we see all the time and doesnt mean he would’ve won with a good draw but it does suggest he has plenty of ability and as he hails from last years Derby winning trainer i suspect he will be spot on for this race.
6 Fear The Dragon Mb Stables Talamo J
If you’ve only got five or six KYD hopes what do you do, yes, you buy another one. Mb Stables forked out $550 for this gelding and after his all the way win in the Lewis Stakes you could understand why. The winner of the RP Springboard Mile last year he won that Lewis Stakes in a good time and looked really strong making all the running, something which apparently you can’t do at HRP which may explain why the trainer was so quick to grab their wallet. We will know just how good a buy he was right after this race.
7 Matsue Castle Smokey Stover Alvarado J
The emerging breeder/trainer has brought this one along steadily this year and having his fourth start of the year he will be fighting fit. He disappointed in the Jerome but was pretty game in winning the CA Cup Derby last time earning him another crack at some Derby points. He is an honest sort with plenty of racing heart but the only thing really lacking so far has been that elusive class gene so today will tell us whether he has the package or not.
8 Liberty Valance D J C Racing Stables Bravo J
Came out of a sprint maiden win to take the Southwest last time from a horrible draw and really could be a great one or just another 1.36 and something worker that took his turn winning a big race. You couldnt fail to be impressed with his Southwest win and he toyed with his maiden rivals before that so a win today may just see him installed as the new KYD favourite. He is in a sticky draw but with luck in running and some good steering from the jokey who rode him in the Southwest he must be a real hope.
9 Ardetha Aer Stables Gaffalione T
You can’t fault three wins in a row and this one did it big in taking the third of those in the El Camino. Coming from the clouds he dived very late to score by a nose and whilst that race isnt a classic trial for the KYD the way he won suggests he is well above average. He seems happy to come from a wider draw so i am not worried about the 9 box and with works right in the ball park he goes into the hopper with all the other prospects.
10 Guest Book John Henry Wilson E J
The third stable runner and whilst he has been a little out of form recently he certainly has a touch of class. A nose second in the Best Pal and close up in the grade one Hopeful he struggled against the best in his last two starts before having a very short break to run seventh in the Sham Stakes on seasonal debut. He has had a couple of months break since that start and will appreciate it after a busy few months. The jury is still out as to whether he can recapture that good two year old form and he will have to do that to have a chance here.
11 Candlestick Mb Stables Centeno D E
He has been close up in some good races as a two year old and kept up that record when flying late to be fourth in the Southwest from a wide draw. He gets a wide draw again today so will face similar challenges but with so many multiple entries it would only take a rabbit to make his chances from wide very good. The trainer has a strong hand in this race and with a very strong work a few days ago for this one and an eye catching finish in the Southwest its hard to know who will come out on top.
12 Made Out Of Glass Mb Stables Hernandez R
The third of the stable runners he finished just in front of Candlestick in the Southwest after running from a much better draw so whist they were pretty close that day the draw may just see the form turned around. He had been only fair up to that point and is clearly an improving sort but this is a tough spot and he may just not be ready today.
13 Born To Laff Joshua Stables Lopez P
You can’t really go wrong when a $12.500 claim ends up placing third in a KYD qualifier next out and it would be quite a story if he can go and win this from the 13 box. Whilst it would be a great story to write up he does remain a long shot with only that one piece of form to go on and being stuck out in the car park will certainly not help his chances.
14 Tinecipher Joshua Stables Bridgmohan S
The third stable runner and probably the most interesting in the field in some ways. A winner of two from four with both of them coming on the turf he has managed a sub 1.37 dirt work for the mile so i can see the reason he gets a chance in this race. The outside draw will mean lots of things will have to go his way to win this unless his function is to create pace for his stablemates in which case he may also play a very important role in the result of this qualifier. If given a chance to win he is no forlorn hope in a race where a pin may be the best way to fins the winner.
SUMMARY
With the multiple entry angle it is very easy to see this race becoming unusual and its the sort of race that may turn up a surprising winner. The chat room chatter will be going strong in the am as the chat room gang all have one of more runners in the race, in fact every horse is owned by a chat room regular so there will be added bragging rights to the winner.
As usual with this type of race all the horses are working similar times and all have enough form to win so it really is a lottery as to who will get the dream trip and takes this race. I like Liberty Valance and Fire N Fury and would include Cherokee Reward in the winning chances but it is really hard to settle on any outstanding confident choice.
Categories: Grade II, STAKES ARTICLES
