San Francisco Mile – Grade III
GG Race #14 1m Turf Graded Stake
Purse $250.000 For Three Year Olds And Upward.
This race is just about as intriguing as it gets and there will be plenty in the result that many trainers will be studying. First of all we have the three year old weight allowance as the three’s start to take on the older horses. Over recent years the three’s have proved almost unbeatable, beautifully demonstarted in this race as they have won the last 5 runnings. Compare that to real life where a three year old has never won the race in 72 years and you start to see the big difference between development here at HRP compared to real life.
I have been seeing a couple of encouraging results recently though where the older horses have managed to give the weight away but that may just be because it is only April and the three’s haven’t got their full maturity boost yet.
Now add the weight for age and sex to the facts and we have a three year old filly in the race who is only carrying 111 Lbs and suddenly we have a race which may just give us some clues as to how the rest of 2021 will go.
Here is a list of all the runners:
1 Furious Mb Stables Moran D 116
A three year old gelding by Fire N Fury and bred by the owner. On his fourth start he broke his maiden and then took a nose second in the Summer Stakes before a half length win in the BC Juvenile Turf. He was tried on the dirt in his first start of the year but ran poorly in the Southwest finishing 11th, six lengths off the winner. He went back to the turf for his last start but found an off track and ran sixth in a one win allowance at SA. His works are strong and he has a great draw so goes into the mix.
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2 Hollywood Capo Nakamura Stables Ryan S 123
When a great trainer like Nakamura Stables spends $201 on a four year old you can bet there is a very good reason for it. Being an entire they may be looking further than today’s race for this son of Capo Di Tutti Capi but looking at this ones work times it looks like there is still some racing left in him. He has had a very slow start to his career being un-raced so far this year so it is likely he will need the run but he has been pretty consistent in his 12 starts so far and this perfect draw will give hi every chance of being in the race for a long way.
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3 Kimura Mark88 Bejarano R 123
Bought for the bargain price of just $80 this seven race winner of over 1K won this race last year when getting the three year old weight allowance so is a really good measure of how the weight for age allowance is going to affect horses this year. He won three graded stakes races last year adding those to his BC Juvenile Sprint title of the year before so is a class act if his new trainer can get him back into the groove. Third in the Appleton after a long break he will clearly improve for that and a great draw will give him every chance if the weight for age effect has been adjusted with the new race engine.
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4 Greek Maestro Hannahbanana Bahen S R 123
Claimed for just $15 he faces a very stiff task here with very limited form at this level as well as carrying the extra weight of the older horses. Consistent enough at overnight level three of his five wins have come in claimers so it is hard to make a case for him in a race like this.
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5 Chaos Broke Out Nakamura Stables Carrasco V R 123
Another bought recently by this top trainer he was acquired at auction for just $43 and he too looks a good buy. The winner of five from ten he has two ungraded stakes wins to his name but has yet to break through at graded level. Having his first run for 6 months on his seasonal debut he took a competitive Optional Claimer at HAW but that was against his own age group and he has to take on the younger generation today. If the weight doesn’t stop them today he must come into this as a contender.
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6 Aggravating Arindel Gutierrez Mario 123
This one has changed hands a bit recently and was claimed in his most recent start by Arindel for $35. With six wins from twenty five starts he is well tried but does have two wins at stakes level and is a strong worker. I really liked the way he started fast and made all to win unchallenged in his win last time but he does have a bit to find if he is going to take his first graded stakes today.
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7 King Of Swords Mb Stables Jaramillo E 116
A three year old gelding by Good Authority and bred by the top breeder Smokey Stover. The winner of three from five his most recent win came in the Black Gold Stakes where he made the running to win by an easy two lengths. His works are as good as all the older horses and he gets the weight allowance so must have a great chance of winning.
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8 Stargazing Aer Stables Hernandez R M 111
A really interesting entry by the trainer who has really become one of the best around for two and three year olds in the last few seasons. A head third in the Natalma last year before a solid third in the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf she went into the new year as a promising filly and confirmed that when taking the CA Cup Oaks by an easy two lengths in her first start as a three year old. She had a go in the San Felipe on the dirt next out and didn’t enjoy the experience but was better if not a bit disappointing last time out when sixth in the Appalachian. On her works and winning race times she should win with this much weight allowance but HRP generally doesn’t favor fillies against colts and that along with the draw are the main worries.
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9 Ice Wall RNP Stables Court J K 123
A real solid stakes horse he has been seen more on the dirt recently most notably when a head second in the BC Dirt Mile and then third in the Pegasus World Cup on seasonal debut this year. Whilst more noted on the dirt he has got 5 turf wins and in his last start on the grass was a half length second in the grade three Red Bank Stakes so i am not too perturbed by the switch in surfaces. Another layer of intrigue in this race he may end up the best of the older horses.
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10 Time Warrior Paradise Stable Espinoza V 123
Well this tough old warrior finally got a break from the so called random draw last time and made all for a really game head win in the Appleton. Today sadly he is back to his usual place in the wider gates and that will make things all the harder for him. Make no mistake this five year old has what it takes to win but the draw and the weights are against him today.
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12 High Planker Smokey Stover Velazquez J R 116
Comes here under the guidance of one of the best in the game he is very lightly raced having only four starts for the one win but there is plenty to like about his chances despite the rotten draw. Fourth in the Texas Turf Mile on seasonal debut he very nearly won the Equistaff last time out just fading close hoe after trying ti make all the running. The draw of course is a big factor here but when you consider he has worked a sub 1.35 time and ran the mile in 1.33 and 1 with six pounds more than he gets here he must come into the reckoning with some luck in running.
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#12 High Planker is starting in PP11.
SUMMARY
As i said at the start this is a fascinating race. Time Warrior, Ice Wall and Kimura look like the best horses in the race but if its business as usual at HRP they wont have a chance against the three year olds. So on to them and we get a bunch of pretty average looking three year olds who are only brought into this race with the weight advantages. Of course AER’s filly gets the biggest advantage and should win with the impost of just 111Lbs but HRP doesn’t seem to give fillies the same chance as real life so not even that is nailed on. Of the colts, well High Planker, King Of Swords and Furious all have good enough work times to win with their weight allowance so we are really left with a baffling and endless amount of scenario’s to work out.
I will go for Ice Wall to win just because i am the eternal optimist.
Categories: STAKES ARTICLES
