The Stephens – Grade I
BEL Race #4 7f Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $400.000 For Three Year Olds.
1 Aladdins Genie Mb Stables Saez L
Won the Bay Shore over this trip and seven furlongs can be a rather specialist trip so that is a big plus. Though he won that race in the wet his form is good enough on a dry track to suggest he handles any going which is also a huge advantage at this time of year. A good two year old who proved he could see out a trip in the LA Futurity last year he is coming off of two wins in a row s we know he is in good form. The draw and the trainer are also big plus’s and i imagine he will be a popular choice to win.
2 Hot Dog South Shore Stables Gaffalione T
This is the type of race we tend to see those TC failures but this one though he finished stone last in the Preakness has always looked like this trip might be his best. The winner of the Day Mile prior to that he clearly has ability and it will be very interesting to see him run over this seven furlongs today. Drawn perfectly he may be a real good each way bet.
3 Iron Mine Fractious Jaramillo E
A consistent sort over a variety of trips he is another who looks to be suited by seven furlongs and comes here after a game dead heat win in the Barrera Stakes. He hasn’t been lucky with the draw monster in his last three and gets a much better draw today so should be pretty competitive. His works are in the zone and there is no reason he wont run well.
4 Public Information D J C Racing Stables Davis D
A consistent sort he hasn’t taken on this sort of quality before but always gives his best and will be trying for sure. His third in the Gold Fever last time isn’t convincing me he is a win hope here so for me whilst he is sure to give a good account he would be an outsider.
5 Neon Delite Smokey Stover Hernandez R M
The trainer is in top form and has no problem with sending good horses to lower tracks to give them some confidence and build a winning record and this one has won his last three. The works suggest he is good enough to mix it here but then everything is working pretty much times that give them a winning chance so that cannot be taken as the only guide. He will be a popular choice but will need to prove something today.
6 Disciplinary Nakamura Stables Wilson E J
Here is another TC sort who has been running over further. The winner of the Sanford as a juvenile he has changed hands for big money a couple of times since and hasn’t really lived up to that early form. Since this trainer has had him he looked better when put on the pace in the Peter Pan last time but failed to stay the trip so i expect him to be stronger over this seven furlongs.
7 Valvano Royalty Stables Cedillo A
Won the Swale and the Lafayette over this trip but ran one of those HRP mysteries last time in the Day Mile so the trainer will be looking for a better effort as he returns to his best trip. I do like form over seven furlongs in a race like this and it doesn’t get better than this ones so he must have a chance.
8 No More Rattle Bigchief Stables Franco M
After three failures over longer trip he was brought back to sprinting last time to win the Lang Stakes and i feel he may be the dark horse in this race. The works tell us he is more of a sprinter than a miler plus so i feel he may be the best value in the race.
9 Magz Gdp Inc Murrill M
A winner of four of his last six so is in great form and has won at stakes level over this trip so is a live chance. Dead heated with Iron Mine in the Barrera last time and his recent mile work was really strong so this is another that has a live chance. I feel he is a little under rated in this company and i will be keeping my eye on him.
10 Dellas Boy Alydar Stables Lezcano J
Looks up against it on works and form but did win the Gold Fever nicely last time so is not out of this.
11 King Pigeon Delta Farms Elliott S
Only four races to his name he clearly is an improver and has plenty of scope coming into this race. The draw is a dream killer but he ran really well in the Lang Stakes last time so deserves a shot.
12 Mr Pancake Arindel Velazquez J R
The best worker and probably the best horse in the race he gets the car park as his handicap and will need some luck. He has won over this trip and would have been in the photo finish in the Preakness over this trip from a similar terrible draw so you cannot write him off on the draw alone. If he was drawn two he would start long odds on favorite but out here he has to rely on the race engine, a bit of luck and what everyone else does.
SUMMARY
Mr Pancake is the best horse here and could win but the draw makes it very tough. Aladdins Genie will be dangerous from the inside but i am going out of the box here and going for No More Rattle as a value bet. Looks out for Hot Dog from the better draw and he may end up as favorite in the pick em.
Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES
