August 30, 2016

The best ON-bred two-year-old colts and geldings will head to the gate on Wednesday evening for the $200.000 Simcoe Stakes and each of the six entrants will be trying to emulate Brittannicus Gold, Halfing and Laffin To Mia as future stars of both the state-bred circuit and open company. None of them are winners in stakes company yet and only one has competed at this level so it will be a wide open race where any one of them could step up for a big at this longer distance.

1-Average Size (Two-year-old black gelding / Owner-Angelos Stable)

Purchased for only $1.000 and gelded back in July, Average Size won his debut at RUI going away but makes a huge jump in class for the Simcoe and on paper, looks to be the slowest of the six with much more to prove than most. Interim workouts have been encouraging and there is actually some potential talent there but one has to take a wait-and-see approach with this juvenile until he really comes through with a fast effort.

Analysis-Not as quick as others in the field

Fair Odds-15/1

2-Out On A Limb (Two-year-old bay colt / Owner-Smokey Stover)

Another colt who has changed hands numerous times in his career is Out On A Limb, who has earned back almost all of his $50.000 purchase price with a maiden claiming win and a second in the King Stakes behind a gelding who finished off the board in a Grade III at SAR. He has proven to be an effective closer and gets a longer distance here so if the pace is quick outside, he might be able to capitalize and finally score his initial stakes win.

Analysis-Excellent at this level last time and now gets more ground

Fair Odds-3/1

3-Clockwork Chai (Two-year-old gray colt / Owner-Mb Stables)

The Mb Stables juggernaut keeps rolling along in these restricted stakes events and with Clockwork Chai, you get an undefeated colt who came running on late to score in allowance company at LAD with a top class speed rating. Distance and class should not be a problem and he has worked well in the interim; all told, a colt you cannot keep off your ticket, even if he might be at the mercy of the outside speed.

Analysis-Two for two and takes a logical jump in class

Fair Odds-5/2

4-Condottieri Secret (Two-year-old gray gelding / Owner-Hawaiian Shirt Guy)

Condottieri Secret ran into a huge winner at FE two starts back and improved big time at DMR last time out; now, he has asked to take another big leap in class and make more steps forward as one of the many closers in this field. The only question with him will be the same closing ability carrying six additional pounds and if he is stopped in any way, he might not be able to recover and get back into the race late.

Analysis-Class and weight might play against him

Fair Odds-8/1

5-Flightwing Commander (Two-year-old bay colt / Owner-Yahudi Stables)

Flightwing Commander was purchased for $10.000 after two even efforts to start his career but really blossomed at DMR with a rousing maiden score and should be well regarded here off the top effort. He looks to one of the few with some actual pace in his profile and could be the leader early if he runs back to his debut at PRX, giving him an advantage over others will be looking for speed but not finding it from many.

Analysis-Could be the leader and set himself up nicely

Fair Odds-4/1

6-Mount Morris (Two-year-old black gelding / Owner-Team 7 Illusions)

Of all the entrants in the Simcoe, Mount Morris has the most experience over the WO oval with two straight wins including a last gasp victory going six-furlongs in N2L company, without the addition of Bute. He removes Lasix and a shadow roll for this start and gets the outside gate in the six-horse field, meaning that he might be trying to use a stamina angle to outlast foes who might not be as effective handling this distance in their young careers.

Analysis-Changes his profile as a means to getting the distance

Fair Odds-6/1

Overall

The Simcoe Stakes featured some very talented colts and geldings but Clockwork Chai has the profile to really become a star and off two huge wins and a top-class speed rating, will be the likely favourite on Wednesday to remain undefeated. Out On A Limb just missed in a state-bred stakes event last time and should be well-backed if he gets into the race early while Flightwing Commander could be the speed on the outside and might be able to take this field gate-to-wire if he makes another step forward.

Prediction

Win-Clockwork Chai (5/2)

Place-Out On A Limb (3/1)

Show-Flightwing Commander (4/1)

Triple T Racing 🙂

Categories: STAKES ARTICLES, Ungraded