The Lecomte
1 Strike D J C Racing Stables Bejarano R 122
A lightly raced type he has shown enough in his three starts to look like a serious chance. A good maiden winner second up it was in his last start that he proved he had the class when taking the big-ticket state bred, The NY Stallion series – The Great White Way. Drawn in the car park that day he still managed to run his race and beat a field with plenty of quality in it and I think with the ace today he could well be the winning choice.
2 Wally Gator Rock Creek Husbands P 122
The colt has already been bought and sold three times in his short career originally being nabbed at auction for $1.030 he has shown a healthy profit each time generating more in sales than he has in prize money. Twice a winner at the free track for Spinetingling his first race on the pay side paid dividends when he took the FL Sires Affirmed but he was put back in his place the time after when eighth in the KY Jockey Club. The current owner had to go to $200.000 to secure him just two weeks ago after he became one of the few three-year-olds to break the 1.37-mile mark on the gallops. It will be interesting to see how he goes today but he has the perfect draw to do some damage if he is ready.
3 Painted Ice Alydar Stables Curtis B 122
The up and down nature of juvenile form is no better demonstrated than with this one’s four efforts. Poor and last on debut he then won next out in a decent maiden before running poor and last in the Champagne and then nearly getting home in the KY Jockey Club when a close second. His two bad races have come with wide draws, his two better runs with mid pack draws so with an inside draw today could we see a slashing win by open air? Well, if only it was that easy. His last work was an almost unbelievable 1.10 and 2 for the dirt six furlongs and that suggests he could well be a winner here.
4 Unruffled Charm Williams9 Mendez M 122
He comes here after a majority of his career so far being on the turf, but it is the time of year when a lot of grass runners will get their one shot to prove themselves on the main track, so here he is. He did win his debut on dirt, so I suspect he is a dual-purpose type and going on his win in the Logan last time he is not without ability. His form is hard to line up but he has proven class, and a good draw so gets his chance.
5 Daring Ned The Sidley Stud Franco M 122
A glance at his form and you would assess him as classy, likely to lap up the Derby trips and from a stable that was in great form last year. His only blip came on an off track so you would have to rule him out if it rained but aside from the aqua if it stays dry, he has the credentials to win. His close fourth in the Pharoah and win in the Grey Stakes certainly have him near the top on form and the draw should work with his closing style. His works this year have been a little on the slower side, but he proved he can work the times as a two-year-old and I suspect the trainer has been building him up for this rather than the times being reflective of his current state.
6 Raining Prince Nakamura Stables Castillo I 122
With four wins from six starts as a juvenile and a grade three win it is clear this one belongs in this type of field. His two stakes wins have both come over seven furlongs and his one defeat has been over further so that is a worry but if he sees out the distance, he certainly has this sort of race in his scope. His transit through this race may be key to his chances as he is an on-pace type and he may have to work hard from the squeeze box to find his place, with any luck at all he is a chance.
7 Mitchell Royalty Stables Ortiz I Jr 122
I have always had a soft spot for this one, probably because he shares a name with a relative of mine but also because he was so, so brave when winning the Indian Summer back in October. He was on turf that day and again in the BC, but I am not sure that he is a true turf type in the same way I am not sure he is a true sprint type. In fact, he does pose all sorts of imponderables when assessing his form but at the end of the day he is a tough sort with proven ability and is sure to give his best, you can’t ask for more than that.
8 Down To Earth Riggins Racing Velazquez J R 122
In his last three starts this very good juvenile was given career ending draws but he came out of it with two stakes wins and a fifth in a BC race so the eight gates will hold no fears for his supporters today. The winner of the huge purse in the KD Juvenile he then took the Futurity next out and was made favourite to win the BC Turf Sprint despite a bad draw. He understandably failed in the BC but still managed fifth and was then brought out for a season ending finale in the Springboard Mile where he shocked a few by winning. Being a multiple stakes winner in turf sprints the victory did look unlikely, but this is HRP and surface and trip can mean little if a horse has ability and he certainly proved he has a ton of that at RP. You would have to say that on paper he looks like he is going to be hard to beat and if class counted for everything I would agree.
9 The Wrong Guy Night Rider Stables Geroux F 122
He has won his last three making career stats of three wins from four so the move to a race like this is certainly on the right track. It would be startling to show his form lines to a real-life race goer and for them to come to the same conclusion as his middle win came in a $5.000 claimer over five furlongs. His last win however was in a state bred stakes race and he has worked 1.10 and 3 for the six and 1.36 and 4 for the mile since that win suggesting the move to Night Riders Stable has brought about some unlikely improvement. The draw is tough, but this is exactly the type of rapid improver that could surprise.
10 Fear Of Walking Dead Big Guns Stables Saez L 122
Won his first two races and has since taken on black type company running well enough to suggest he has a chance in this race. A fair seventh in the Pharoh after getting a bad draw he then ran good placings in the Street Sense and the Gun Runner building a nice record to end his juvenile year. There is no doubting his ability to run top four here, but I am worried about the on-speed nature of his runs so far and coming from this wide gate. These types if left to their own devices can go too hard too soon from the gate, a fate than has befallen him before so the trainer may need to step in with the gaming buttons. The race engine holds the key to his chances if allowed to run or instructed to drop back.
12 Chasing Magic Mb Stables Lopez P 122
Well, unless the champion trainer steps in with a miracle instruction this one is almost guaranteed to go way back from this wide gate, just as he has in his last four starts. In three of those last four he has run exceptionally well, beaten a nose in the grade one DMR Futurity, a length in the Golden State Juvenile and getting his timing right to win the Gun Runner last time. There is no doubt his biggest enemy is his running style, but he has buckets of ability and the brilliance of Mb Stables on his side so he must go in with the winning chances.
13 Ikko Ikki Jerry Garcia Racing Graham J 122
Gets in off the ballot and has plenty to find on his form so far. Apart from his last start, after which he was gelded, he hasn’t run badly and his works are pretty good suggesting that he does have ability but from this wide gate he is going to have to run three lengths better than his works or form suggests to win.
SUMMARY
This is a decent early KYD qualifier with some useful and promising types and will take some winning. Again, with five or six good chances you have to play the odds as a punter and with that in mind I am looking for an adaptable running style, a decent draw and a proven class gene. Painted Ice certainly fits the bill as does and Wally Gator and they look the safe picks for top two/three. If the wider draws Down To Earth, Wrong Guy and Chasing Magic are sure to be big hopes and if we see, as we often do, a wide gate coming through off a fast pace it could be one of them.
Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES