The Southwest – Grade III [KYD]
3:00 OP Race #2 1 1/16m Dirt Graded Stake
Purse $1,000.000 For Three Year Olds.

1 Extreme Jet Mb Stables Franco M 121 —

The way this horse won the Remsen from an outside draw you would have to say that he looks a very big chance here and going forward to the TC. Using the outside speed push that day he went to the lead easily and was way too good coming home a very easy four length winner. He got away with a fairly easy lead and then piled on the pressure round the home turn and he never looked like being caught. That great win came off a solid effort in the BC Juvenile when closing hard in the stretch to be a close fourth and sometimes not winning the BC juvenile races can seem an advantage going into the TC. Prior to that excellent effort he won the grade one Hopeful coming from the stalk another fine victory and you have to say, just looking at his body of work, that he already looks like a KYD contender. Today he gets his best draw although the ace can be a little sticky at times and the trainer will have to rely on the race engine to put him in the right spot. Bred by Arkansas Elite and bought from Fractious, his works are sharp, and he looks to me at least the one to beat.

2 Point Given Alydar Stables Smith M E 121 —

This stable has started the year off with a bang so loud that everyone is sitting up and taking notice and this entry running from a very nice gate looks a lively chance to give them even more reason to celebrate. Bought from Fractious for $444.000, he certainly wasn’t cheap but with a grade one win in the DMR Futurity and two very unlucky losses, one being the BC, he looks as though he may be worth every cent. A deep closer in his last three, the trainer has already demonstrated that that running style is something they have mastered, and it would be no surprise to see Point Given thundering home late, given that the early pace will probably be strong. The key form line here is the BC Juvenile and there is no doubt he was finishing fastest that day and had Extreme Jet behind which may just be the most significant part of his form line.

3 Street Magician Angelos Stable Prat F 121 —

Another deep closer and another bought from the Fractious fire sale, this time for $300.000. It is quite remarkable what that stable achieved when you look at the quality of horses, just in this field that came from the now hugely down scaled trainer. Not only did they make $1,500.000 from the sale of the first three in the gates for this race but the three all look TC chances. So, what chance does this one have, just a length behind Extreme Jet in the BC Juvenile, the winner of the Iroquois and a hard closing fourth in the KY Jockey Club from a terrible draw makes him a very nice prospect indeed, add in some very good work times and we have another big chance of glory. I suppose the key question here is the running style, especially on this new engine. An easy early pace and Extreme Jet has a big advantage as Point Given and Street Magician may go too far back, A fast pace and these two may be flying down the stretch, so once again we face the difficult choice of trying to guess instructions and what the race engine may do with the pace. On bare form this one has every chance.

4 Turning Point TwinTowersRacing Geroux F 121 —

With the three inside him it is easy to quickly move past this one as he has struggled in black type after a good allowance win last summer. His works aren’t overly impressive but works seem to be all over the place at the moment so they cannot be the only reason you write a horse’s chances off and whilst his recent form isn’t inspiring, he has shown enough that this canny trainer may be able to work their magic with him. I really liked his effort in the Champagne where he flew home from a long way back for fourth, but he was less impressive in the Remsen last time when a long way behind Extreme Jet. I wonder whether the trainer will be clicking the gaming buttons here with a few of the big names likely to be looking to close late and he certainly has some latent ability so it may just make the difference.

5 Einstein Mb Stables Garcia Mar 121 —

The second stable runner as the third was pulled out because of his draw and I must admit this one has me scratching my head. A runner in the BC Juvenile Turf Sprint and one that has never tackled any sort of distance in his races other than sprints he does, dare I say it, have the look of a pacemaker for his stable mate. There is very little to go on but just maybe this one had an electric mile work on the farm and caused the champion trainer to throw him in the deep end for a Hail Mary, who knows, we will only be finding out as they cross the line.

6 Travis Mathew Nakamura Stables Gallardo A A 121 —

A nice sort with two wins from four, he too has plenty of question marks about him not least the trip as the furthest he has gone so far is six and a half furlongs. A game winner last time at PRX and working well enough to be a contender, I am pretty sure the trainer hasn’t put him in this race on a whim, so you have to take his chances pretty seriously.

7 Obi Wan Allinthegate Velazquez J R 121 —

The fourth of the big guns here and a pace influence, you could easily argue that he has the best overall form out of all of them and the right running style to be a real factor in this race. The winner of the Champagne at grade one running the stalk from the ace gate he then went to the BC Juvenile where he raced from gate 13 but still ran the stalk and was very brave in finishing second, beaten just a half-length. He had both Extreme Jet and Point Given behind that day so considering his draw that was a huge effort and a key piece of form. In his last start in the KY Jockey Club, he was forced to lead early and though he gave that up he still kept on really well to hold second less than a length off the winner. He has a draw disadvantage again here, but he is very good and could be just the best today.

8 Decal Williams9 Bejarano R 121 —

Another grade one winner from a stable that had an amazing year last year with their juveniles it will be interesting to see what gaming buttons the stable clicks today as he has demonstrated several running styles two of which have been pretty successful. He made all to win the SAR Special and then closed to just snatch the grade one Breeders Futurity. That closing style failed in the BC Juvenile, so he went back to front running in the LA Futurity where he was just beaten into second. The draw suggests to me his best chances will be to go forward here but whatever the trainer chooses there is no doubt he has the ability to damage a few reputations.

9 In Good Order Acber Farms Alvarado F T 121 —

I really like this one who was a great buy for the trainer as they picked him up for just $2.000 at the Summer Auction. In his second start he won the Aspirant Stakes and then ran a cracker in the KY Jockey Club to be a closing third less than a length off the winner and right alongside Obi Wan which puts him right up there with the best of these. With just three starts he is probably the most progressive of these runners and though he has a sticky draw he certainly deserves a lot of respect.

10 Alydar D J C Racing Stables Hernandez R M 121 —

Well, if a name can give a horse a chance, then this one has the right one. He may not need help from his name though as he has the form to very much be a contender with two stakes wins to his name and a fair effort in the BC Juvenile Turf. After winning the Skidmore on the turf and running very well in the Summer, it looked like his future would be on the green stuff, but he was given his chance on the main track last time and impressed enough to make him a live KYD hope for the stable. That win last time came in an NY Stallion series race, but I really liked the way he finished his race of that day from a tough draw and whilst his form is hard to weigh up, I reckon he has every chance today.

11 Hard Nut Boomtown Beschizza A 121 —

It’s good to see this stable with a runner but they have been badly treated by the draw monster today with a horse that could be the one that is overlooked. He won the Bowman Mill very nicely but was still a big outsider in the KY Jockey Club last time but made the 20/1 odds look generous with a huge win. The key to that win and his form is that he beat Obi Wan that day which is a horse that has the beating of all the big names here and he beat him with a little in hand. His works, for what they are worth, are as good if not better than all of them and whilst he has been closing to win his races he hasn’t been coming from a mile behind which suggests he is comfortable with his running style regardless of pace. The only question for me is this draw which is truly bad in a big field of very good three year olds but just maybe he could be the one.

12 Losing Hazard Asgar Lopez P 121 —

The Springboard Mile has always been a very good pointer for the KYD and this home-bred made all for an impressive win in that race last time out. He just further adds to this race which may turn out to be one of the best qualifiers for the KYD. The winner of his last three this draw may not be the kiss of death it can be as he seems to be a natural front runner and with the outside speed push could find himself in the front which is never a bad place to be on this engine. If he makes the front the next question will be how fast, he has to go to hold that lead and if he can get away with average sectionals there is no reason why he can’t run a big race or even win.

13 Bitcoin Bobby Mb Stables – Scratch – 121 —
14 Without Warning TwinTowersRacing – Scratch – 121 —

15 Cadillac Frank Williams9 Bridgmohan S X 121 —

Talking of outside speed push here we see a sprinter with some good 5 furlong works in the car park draw which can often lead to one thing…pace. It would make sense that the trainer will use this as a speed influence with a second runner in the field, but this four-race winner is no slouch and may surprise a few here. In his furthest race so far, over seven furlongs, he ran on well from mid pack to be a good second in the PARX Future Stars so isn’t a write off as the leader here and it will be interesting to see the gaming button the trainer elects to pick.

SUMMARY

This may just be the best qualifier that we see for the KYD with more than 6 top win chances and pretty much every runner having some claim or another. The top four on draw and form would be the inside three and Obi Wan but often in these races the most obvious very rarely happens. The pace, instructions and the race engine will be the deciding factor without a doubt here as we see a tangle of form that gives everything hope. For me, I think a little left field punt on Hard Nut may be in order, there are some form lines which put him clearly on top, but he has to cope with a rotten draw which maybe what makes it more of a hope than a solid choice. Good luck to all, if this race is run sensibly then we are in for a great race and we could easily be seeing the KYD winner today.

Categories: Grade III, STAKES ARTICLES