4/30/21

 14   CD      KY Oaks  (GI)

$1,250.000    3yoF            1/18m  Dirt         121lbs

The first Saturday in May… even those outside of the industry know what that means, it’s KYD time.  But not so fast there Shorty, the girls have their day in the sun first, and Friday is an action-packed day of racing here at the Twin Spires, and we take a look at the KY Oaks (GI) going a mile and an eighth on the famed Louisville oval. 

With the record number of fillies qualified for the KYD, you might think that this years Oaks would be a watered-down version of the female classic, but you’d be dead wrong on that.  This is a star-studded field and really leaves a lot for the handicapper to take in.

My top choice today is Sundress, and this grey filly is doing everything right, right now.  She certainly seems to have a thing for running in KY, showing three wins at KEE, but her speed and ability to carry it over a distance is the real kicker for me.  Could this be too long for her, maybe, but I think she’s going to run big in this one.  Another that you just can’t say anything bad about is Naples, and she will be my second choice.  Back to back wins after that big purchase, but again, she has the tactical speed to avoid traffic and yet seems to be able to run from here to Hardees (you have to visit CT to understand that reference – it’s a Burger King now).  Let’s give the third spot to Shes A Super Freak, since she is another that looks to have the tactical speed to avoid the large field traffic and really seems to want to go a bit longer.  All three of these have been in tough fields and always seem to be around, but the fact that I’ve left all three Mb Stables charges off of my ticket probably proves that I’m nuts. 

This is a start-studded field from head to toe, heck even the AE horse would be given a shot if she draws into the field, so we have to tip our cap to everyone that made it here… best of luck to you all and let’s see who makes history!

Here’s The Field –

Her biggest win came down at FG taking the Alexandra (GII) by a head  in front running fashion.  She pressed the pace last out only to tire late in the Ashland at KEE (GI) so it’s hard to think that her front running style will hold this group down.  Still, for a $20.000 claim to make it here to Louisville, they have nothing to be ashamed of. 

Changes hands from Mb Stable to the new owner for $350.000 after that near miss in the Ashland (GI) at KEE.  She’s a maiden but has two o-t-b finishes vs. stakes company.  Still, she would need her very best to get the job done here, and I think she will be long odds today.

Comes into this one off of two starts in SoCal with mixed results.  She handled the Santa Ysabel Stakes (GIII) to the tune of a one-length win, then tired in the late going of the SA Oaks (GII) and ended up seventh of nine.  When she’s good, she’s real good… but can she bring her best today?

She changed hands for $350.000 off of that sixth place finish in the Alexandra (GII) then ran fourth in the FG Oaks (GII) for the new connections, only to show her stuff as the 1.20/1 favorite in the Gazelle (GIII) where she won by a half length.  She’s won some big, big races, so if she’s on her game, she could take down any group. 

She won the Busher at AQU to get her first stakes score, then they went after the boys in the BG Stakes (GII) at KEE and that was not the right call as she ended up eleventh in that one.  Did that toughen her up for this one or break her heart?  I guess we find out. 

The big barn comes with a trio of tough fillies today and this one certainly fits the bill, as she’s never missed a check in ten starts.  Three wins, six runner-up finishes and a third from her ten lifetime starts, she just never seems to run a bad race.  You have to give her a big shot to get the job done today. 

She’s certainly a head-turner after that big win at KEE, taking the Ashland in wire-to-wire fashion.  She has been running big in all of her recent starts, and is not only a horse to watch today, but could very well be the post-time favorite by the time they slam the gates closed.  She’s the real deal. 

Nothing but wins since switching hands to the big barn via the Dec Auction for just $17.890.  She broke maiden then won the GP Oaks (GII), closing like a beast to win by a head that afternoon.  This is only her fourth start, so I expect her to just keep getting better and that could be bad news for this group.

Only a single win for this one, but she is always around when they hand out checks, showing two seconds and a trio of thirds in that batch of ten outings.  There’s two ways to look at her, she just doesn’t win -or- she’s sitting on go and ready to get the job done… which way do you go?

She’s a tough filly that has won both starts since switching over to this conditioner via Private Purchase for $750.000 and that seems to be a bargain, not only because she’s stayed perfect for the barn but the previous owner gave $1,200.000 for her just two starts prior.  She’s really good, no matter the price tag, and should be in the picture when they hit the wire.

Here’s another that has been tough as nails, winning the Demmsole (GII) at AQU and being close in a number of other big races including a nose-miss in the BC Juv (GI).  She is certainly capable of running with any group and must be given serious consideration here.

Two wins and a near miss second tells you that this one is as sharp as a tack right now.  Won at FG and GP then missed by a head, closing fast in the SA Oaks (GII) in her most recent.  That certainly tells me that she wants the extra distance and that could be the difference in this one.  She’s a contender.

They just keep coming from Mb Stables and this one took the Honeybee (GIII) (DH) at OP prior to a third in the Fantasy (GIII) both at OP.  She’s another that looks to be asking for more ground and that could spell success for this outfit.

Made the public pay, being dismissed at 13/1 odds in the SA Oaks (GII) where she got up on the wire for her biggest win to date, and proving to be a heck of a purchase for just $30.000.  That was two graded stakes wins at SA for this one, so she is a horse to watch, that’s for sure.

Lightly raced, claimed for $8.000 and was the runner-up in the Beaumont (GIII) last out.  If she draws in, you still have to give her a shot.

COZMAN Picks   7 / 10 / 12

 Willies’ Green Card    2 / 7

Scotty  6 / 7 / 13

Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES