For the past 5 weeks i have put six horses through 4 WIC to find out how instructions affect the race they run. I must admit i had jumped on the ‘instructions dont work’ bandwagon from day one but i have been slowly convinced that they really can make a difference. This study is not conclusive of course but it is interesting and for me atleast leads me to believe i have missed the bandwagon for long enough.

The first group of horses are turf milers, i used fillies because of their consistency and tried to pick horses of fairly similar ability. In my last piece on instructions i deduced that two sets were more likely to get results, they were positional instructions and pace based instructions, these turf milers are using pace based instructions for this experiment.

Horse 1  Anniversary   won on trail, 3rd running on late on HL, seems comfortable with 24/4, 48/4, 1.12/4, 1.36/2

So according to its running style when on HL and Trail it likes a slower early pace. Its last start saw it blast to the front on HL which it seemed to hate so we can assume positionaly that it likes to be covered up.
Pre WIC work:
6F turf work on HL……25/1, 49/1, 1.01, 1.13
Horse 2 Brilliant Knowledge   won on HL and restrain but in both cases was up on or near the pace. Seems comfortable with 23/3, 47/2, 1.10/2, 1.35.

It looks like its running style is naturally on pace although it also ran well when restrained a little off the pace. Positionaly it seems to want to lead but often runs out of gas at the end of its races and was happy to take the instruction restrain.
Pre WIC work:
6F turf work on HL…..23/1, 47, 59/2, 1.12/1

Horse 3  Darken Times,  seems comfortable with 23/2, 47/3, 1.10/2, 1.34.

Naturally on pace in most of her races off HL she did run on restrain but although closing late never got in a blow. She rarely lasts home from on pace on HL.
pre WIC work:
6F turf work on HL….24, 48, 1.00/1, 1.12/3
So if we are taking HL as a baseline we would expect to see Brilliant Knowledge lead from Darken Times through the first half mile. Darken Times would close along with Anniversary but in the end Brilliant Knowledge would hold on and win over 6 furlongs. These work times correspond to their running styles. Over a mile Darken Times seems the better at the end of the race so we should see him in the stalk at the 6 furlong mark and then go ahead in the stretch to win.

Our first test will be a WIC using HL to see if the work times and race times accurately represent how the race will pan out.

1 Mile turf work, all set HL 23/Oct.

As expected Brilliant Knowledge went off in front with a 23/4 first quarter, Darken Times went into the stalk at 24 and Anniversary trailed the field on 24/4. At the half way stage things remained the same and at the 6 furlong point just like the work outs Brilliant Knowledge was still just in front from Darken Times with Anniversary some way off. The last two furlongs saw the race change completely as Brilliant Knowledge and Darken Times carried on fighting each other all the way to the line but Anniversary swept past them both with a huge late run.

Ok so for these horses using the pace instructions we will try and change the result and running styles of each horse. The first rematch will be on opposite setting to what they raced like on HL, the second will be a setting that suits each horses running style.

1 Mile turf work: 1st Nov
Brillinat Knowledge set to BA, Darken Times set to A and Anniversary set to AA. Lets see how this goes.

Anniversary started faster and contested the lead at the quarter pole and stayed handy to the half way point, after that she faded finishing third of the three runners. Darken Times contested the lead with Anninversary in the first quarter but then settled into the stalk before halfway, she then challenged again with two to run and just got her nose in front in a close finish. Brilliant Knowledge trailed the field through the first quarter but by the half way stage had zoomed to the front and held that lead into the stretch. Eventually she was outbattled inside the final furlong finishing a close second to Darken Times.

So it seems the running of Anniversary was directly affected by the instructions as was the result. Lets look at a final test using more appropriate pace instructions to each of the horses running styles.

1 Mile Turf work: 10th Nov
Darken Times was suited by A so she will stay the same, Brilliant Knowledge was fighting her jockey through the first quarter so lets go with AA for her and finally Anniversary needs to fly late so lets go below average with her.
Well this was an unexpected turn. Brilliant Knowledge responded very well to AA running to the lead in the first quarter at 23/4, Darken Times was in the stalk at 24/1 with Anniversary closer than HL but in third at 24/3. At the half way point Brilliant Knowledge still led on 48 with Darken Times on 48/2 and Anniversary dropping back a bit on 49/1. With two furlongs to run Brilliant Knowledge was staying strong and pulling away with a 1.11/4 whilst Darken Times was dropping back on 1.12/4, Anniversary was gaining on him with 1.13/1. At the line Brilliant Knowledge was well clear on 1.36/61 with Darken Times never getting n a challenge with 1.37/69, Anniversary never produced her late finish with 1.38/09.

Once again the result was different with different instructions, now comes the acid test as we set all the horses back on HL for a final 1 mile work.

1 Mile Turf work: 20th Nov
Brilliant Knowledge went to the front covering the first quarter in 23/4. Darken Times went to the stalk on 24/1 with Anniversary trailing on a 25/1. At the half way stage Brilliant Knowledge still led but Darken Times was moving up to challenge, Anniversary was nearly two seconds back in a distant third. At the six pole with two to run Brilliant Knowledge kept up the gallop and moved clear of Darken Times who was weakening with Annivrsary making ground. At the post once again Anniversary swept by with a late run beating Brilliant Knowledge on the line with Darken Times some way behind in third.

Summary of finishing positions:

Anniversary:          1331
Darken Times:         3123
Brilliant Knowledge:  2212

Each time i used the instructions it changed the race, the only horse to win twice was Aniiversary and that was on HL both times.
So this proves to me that instructions do have an effect and they can change a result. To further my investigations i used  a second set of horses, this time sprinters running over six furlongs on the dirt.

Horse one Sailing By 

Seems comfortable with: 23/2, 46/1, 57/4, 1.10/1

An on pace runner she has run consistently on HL, she has been restrained on both R and BA before but both of these were unsuccesful with her being taken back but showing no interest in running on late.
Pre WIC work:
6F dirt work: 23/2, 47/1, 59/4, 1.12/4

Evil Dead
Seems comfortable with: 24, 47/2, 59, 1.10/4

Generally seems to be a midpack type runner although she has run on the pace before now. On Hl she runs like a closer and she ran the same on A. On AA she ran the stalk but just kept on at one pace in the final furlong.
Pre WIC work:
6F dirt work: 24/4, 48/4, 1.00/4, 1.13/1

Show The World
Seems comfortable with: 22/4, 46, 58, 1.10/3

Has been tried on a variety of instructions but has shown an on pace running style with HL. Has won on Trail and average but ran poorly on restrain.
Pre WIC work:
6F dirt work: 23/3, 47/2, 59/4, 1.13

So if again we take HL as a baseline for the first WIC and combine the running styles with their work times we would expect Sailing By to lead narrowly from Show The World in a close stalk. Evil Dead would be some way behind. Sailing By and Show The World would battle head for head all the way to the line whilst Evil Dead would close hard and just fail to catch up.
First race, 6Furlongs on the dirt, all set on HL. 26th Oct

As expected Show The World and Sailing By went off head to head with Evil Dead falling a fair way back into a trail. At two furlongs they were locked together up front on 23/1 whilst Evil Dead languished on 24/2. At four furlongs Show The World had edged ahead with a 46/3 with Sailing By still close on 46/4, Evil Dead still way back on 48/3. With a furlong to run Show The World had edged ahead more at 58/4 with Sailing By on 59/1, Evil Dead still had plenty of ground to make up on 1.00/3. At the post as expected Show The World won in 1.12 with Sailing by on 1.12/2 in second, Evil Dead really got going late and finished in 1.13 pretty close up.

So in the next race i will try and affect the outcome by setting the opposite positional running styles. Evil Dead will be set on lead, Sailing By on mid pack and Show The Wolrd on trail.

6 Furlong dirt work, 4th Nov

As per instructions Evil Dead went to the lead going through the first quarter a little worse than her HL time at 24/3. Sailing By set to midpack dropped off the speed in 25/1 and Show The World followed her trail instruction with a 25/4. With two furlongs to run Evil Dead still held a clear lead at 48/4 with Sailing By on 49/4 and Show The World starting to make ground on 50/2. At the furlong pole Evil Dead was starting to flounder at 1.00/2 with Sailing By and Show The World closing hard on 1.01 and 1.01/2. The race changed compeletely inside the last furlong with Sailing By just getting up in 1.12.42 with Show The Wolrd finishing like a train in 1.12.57 and the front running Evil Dead just last in 1.12.59

OK so all the horses followed their instructions and the result was changed in the next race i will set  what i believe to be the instruction to best suit their running style. Show The World will be on lead, Sailing By will be on midpack and Evil Dead will be on trail.

Race3 6f Dirt work 12th Nov
Show The World set off into the lead as instructed going through in 24/2. Sailing By on midpack settled into the stalk with 25/1 and Evil Dead as instructed was trailing with 25/4. After 4 furlongs Show The World still led by a fair way at 48/1, Sailing By was making no progress on 49/2 and Evil Dead was starting to close on 50. With a furlong to run the leader was still well clear but Evil Dead was beginning to overhaul Sailing By and as they hit the line Show The World won inchallenged in 1.11/2 with Evil Dead closing hard on 1.12 and Sailing By keeping on at 1.12/1.

The final test will be back to HL for the final race. 24th Nov
Show The World and Sailing By went through the first quarter contesting the lead with 23/1, Evil Dead trailed in 24/2. By the four furlong pole Show The World had asserted on a 46/3 with Sailing By still close on 46/4, Evil Dead fell further behind on 48/3. As they went into the final furlong Show The World was still galloping strongly on a 58/4, Sailing By was one paced but still close on 59/1 and Evil Dead started to make ground on a 1.00/3. At the post Show The World kept on well to win in 1.12 with Sailing By whacking away on 1.12/2 and Evil Dead finishing like a train on 1.13.

Summary of finishing positions:

Show The World: 1211
Sailing By:     2132
Evil Dead:      3323

As in the first experiment i changed the result using instructions but both times i set HL the result was the same.
OVERALL CONCLUSIONS:

Well i can honestly say that this experiment proved to me that instructions can be accurately used in a controlled environment. They were almost spot on in every case i tried.
However, i am not naive enough to believe that my experiment can be directly transposed into race conditions and have the same effect.
Why? Well there are many reasons and they need to be looked at individually:

The horse prep: Most horses are green green when they race so that shouldnt be a factor in messing up instructions but what HRP have alluded to is that each horses form can be affected by the time between its races, the time of year and the frequency of works and races. So this is where our first slightly random effect can happen to change the way our horse runs its race.

The Draw: It is pretty obvious that outside horses tend to go forward or backwards a majority of the time. Again HRP have mentioned that the AI can make decisions that over ride instructions and so it seems that the draw can have a detrimental effect on your horse following its instruction.

Jockey: Different jockeys have different abilities. HRP have said the better the jockey the better decisions they make and the better they follow instructions. So you may have a 10% jockey who rides the stalk perfectly but a 7% jockey who decides to over ride instructions and take the horse to teh trail. It states clearly in the help section that the AI makes decisions that over ride instructions.

Track and surface: we have been told that a track has many variants in going between fast and sloppy, one would assume therefore that a fast track that is verging on good would suit a fast ground horse less than a fast track verging on rock hard. This again would effect the horses ability to race to its instructions. The track bias and configeration is also a factor that can affect the way a horse runs.

Traffic and the race itself: It goes without saying that if ten horses are all set on lead then 9 are going to have to ignore their instruction, or atleast thats how we would see it. There is no graphic that shows us a jockey in last place riding like a demon to try and get our horse to the lead in the same way there is no feedback from the jockey that tells us the horse could not go the early pace so they made a decision to go back. This i think is our main problem, can you imagine watching a real life horse race where all the jockeys remained perfcetly still and gave no explanation as to why they made in race decisions. We are very limited by what we see during a race beyond an obvious block.

So when all these randoms are put into our way is there any point in using instructions?
I must admit i am starting to think there is.

My experiment proved to me that i can change the way a horse runs both positively and negatively in a race situation. I believe that those horses that can take instructions, with a 10% jockey on board will run a better race if you correctly judge which instruction to use. They wont always win, they wont always run to the instruction but over a season if you can get it right you may get a few perecent more winners than you did when you set everything on HL.
Treat instructions like adds. We train a horse on bute and it goes a second quicker and all of us will leave bute in its system for the rest of its racing career. It wont always win, it may win 1 out of every ten races but we still keep with the bute because we know it makes it run quicker. Its a similar situation with instructions. If we put a horse on stalk for its entire career it may win 1 out of ten and trail in 20% of its races, does that mean stalk didnt work or does it mean that stalk worked everytime but the horse was only good enough to win one in ten.
Most players on here win at a rate of 20-30%, that means 70 to 80% of the time we lose and yet we never enter to lose. So why do we expect instructions to work everytime?

The frustration comes in the random events that cause the instructions to be ignored or not work. Maybe those random events carry too much weight at HRP, maybe they could be toned down a little but at the end of the day i have been convinced that a correctly judged instruction if followed gives me a better chance of winning than not using one at all.

Categories: FEATURED STORIES, SRF Interviews