November 3, 2016
Every year in North America, there are three horse races that people across the country look forward to watching, reminiscing about and ultimately, making their opinions known about even if they come from left field. The first is the Kentucky Derby, held the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs while the second is the Hambletonian, the biggest race in standardbred racing held the first Saturday in August at The Meadowlands in New Jersey. The third will be held this Saturday at Santa Anita and for those lined up for the Breeders’ Cup Classic, it is the chance to cap off an incredible campaign with the richest win of their season, at least in HRP standards.
For real-life horses, there are other races around the world with bigger purses including the Dubai World Cup, the Prix d’Arc de Triomphe, the Melbourne Cup and the Japan Cup and for past winners of the Breeders’ Cup Classic, those races have been important to the likes of Cigar, Pleasantly Perfect, Invasor and Curlin. For others like Alysheba, Sunday Silence, A.P. Indy and Skip Away, it was the culmination of a stellar career on the biggest stage possible while for others like Wild Again, Black Tie Affair, Arcangues or Alphabet Soup, it was an upset of monumental proportions that propelled them into the annals of history. More recently, winners named Zenyatta, Blame, Bayern and American Pharoah have brought a mix of pure joy, utter disbelief, sheer controversy and in the case of last year, true superstardom.
At HRP, the Classic has been the type of race really reserved for the best of the best with Icicle, Dark Crown and Barbarino winning as part of a Horse Of The Year campaign, despite the fact that each of those three faced completely different challenges with their respective ages, the courses they ran over and the fields they faced. Whats Up won the Classic in 2009 and 2011 and was HOTY both times, as was Commanding in 2013 and Niagra in 2014 and while Viking Shield provided a big upset last year, he will not be back to defend his title after failing to hit the board before his retirement. Thanks to the Win-And-You’re-In races, many of the guaranteed winners do not factor into the Top Ten with points and that will make things extremely interesting with so many three-year-olds clambering for the top spot, plus a small group of talented older runners looking to spoil the party and earn their year-end accolades.
1-Copper Beast (Three-year-old chestnut colt / Owner-John Henry)
AR Derby and Travers winner Copper Beast has gone from optional claiming winner, through two different owners, and onto SA for the Classic and while it could only manage second in the OK Derby, it was the ideal prep against easier in the mud and should set him up nicely for another big effort at the ten-furlong distance. Speed ratings have improved to triple-digits in his last two and he should be able to find an inside trip for his closing kick so all he needs to a lane to run in and under a returning jockey, that should be no problem with efforts over the track to his benefit, even if they were going short.
Analysis-Much to like about this improved colt
Fair Odds-6/1
2-Spring Lover (Three-year-old chestnut colt / Owner-Mb Stables)
Spring Lover finally earned a second win on the year in the LA Derby but that came in a dead-heat and as of late, he has not been finding that final burst at the end of his race and that will be cause for concern if he wants to handle this distance. He has been a victim of post position in many of his races but will find no such issue here and the question will be tactics, as to whether he settles in behind the leaders or actually goes to the front, as he did at IND before nearly stealing that Grade II event with a season’s best speed rating.
Analysis-Grade I winner has lacked that needed punch
Fair Odds-20/1
3-Ned Isakoff (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Jerry Garcia Racing)
When Icicle won the 2005 BC Classic, he was riding a five-race winning streak including a 20-length score in the Pacific Classic and literally towered over his rivals in a Horse Of The Year campaign that this handicapper actually covered in an interview with Jerry Garcia Racing. But the days of that dominance by one horse are over and in his stead, Ned Isakoff will try to cement his own HOTY credentials after winning the PRK and the PA Derby and could be well suited if he can find a soft pace up front and actually lead the field wire-to-wire.
Analysis-Classic winning connections return with the highest point earner this season
Fair Odds-6/1
4-Atomic Twister (Three-year-old black colt / Owner-Blushing Meadows)
Having followed Atomic Twister through much of his three-year-old campaign, it will be tough to back him in the Classic off his last few efforts and having been beaten by many of these in races like the Travers and the PA Derby, he will assume longshot status until he can really come through with another big win. Two wins in 15 career starts does not a champion make and even with blazing workouts, there is much to be said for a horse who can carry it all the way to the wire and simply put, this horse cannot.
Analysis-Needs to show his best at ten-panels to be considered
Fair Odds-30/1
5-Viking Rasta (Three-year-old black colt / Owner-Delta Farms)
Delta Farms is back with another “viking” to try and upset the BC Classic but Awesome Again winner Viking Rasta will be up against it even with a guaranteed spot, having broken his maiden in April while only facing this class twice in his career. A 19-1 upset from off the pace will not inspire confidence in many looking at this much tougher field but if you think his last two wins with their 102-speed ratings signal a vast improvement, take him as a flier to pull off the same level of surprise as his former stablemate last year.
Analysis-Looks to duplicate the surprise win of his stablemate
Fair Odds-20/1
6-Black Mojo (Three-year-old black gelding / Owner-Heavens Own)
While others in the Classic field have gotten good as the season has progressed, Black Mojo was really at his best over the Summer with a win in the Peter Pan and placings in the BEL and Haskell before faltering as the favourite in both the Travers and the PA Derby. He faces the winners of those races yet again and even with a good middle gate, will have to run back to his incredible workouts and then some if he wants to win his first Grade I event.
Analysis-Fallen off form at precisely the wrong time
Fair Odds-30/1
7-Dogs Infowarrior (Five-year-old gray horse / Owner-Grimley)
Older horses have really taken a beating this year with so many retired to the breeding shed and almost by default, Dogs Infowarrior is in the Classic field after winning the Grade I Whitney, followed a truly lackluster effort in the JC Gold Cup from a wide post. It has never really been clear as to what best suits this five-year-old, be it turf or dirt, middle or long distances, but you have to take a chance if given the opportunity and he could be a pace presence early with experience at this level a solid asset.
Analysis-Upset the Whitney but last was quite poor
Fair Odds-30/1
8-Enshrined (Three-year-old black gelding / Owner-Mb Stables)
Enshrined has been a longshot in three straight Grade I races in NY and while he was close in the Whitney and Woodward, he sprung one of the biggest upsets of the year in the JC Gold Cup to earn his spot in this star-studded field. Speed ratings are excellent and he certainly has some level of talent but you have to take his last efforts with a grain of salt and back him if you think he is the best in the field at handling the ten-furlongs, or an off-track.
Analysis-Would appreciate some give to the ground
Fair Odds-15/1
9-Edwin Drood (Three-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Sanny Village)
There has been a lot of speculation regarding Edwin Drood and owner Sanny Village about his layoff after the BG Stakes and his big return to the races but he can put all of that to rest with a huge effort here, as redemption for off-the-board finishes in both the Travers and the PA Derby. Each used different tactics to achieve the same finish and the question for this gelding might be distance, since his best efforts have come as shorter races where he could close into a quicker early pace.
Analysis-Classic distance might prove to be too long for him
Fair Odds-12/1
10-Carneyman (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-John Henry)
Carneyman was all but written off after winning the BC Juvenile but nothing much else before surprising wins in the BEL and Haskell resurrected his campaign to heights we had not seen in a very long time. Purchased for a whopping $500.000 by his current owner, he faces older runners for the first time and just missed in the JC Gold Cup and now, looks poised for another huge effort to cap off one of the greatest comeback seasons in modern HRP history.
Analysis-You have to love this hard-knocking colt and his comeback story
Fair Odds-5/1
11-High Pride (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Mb Stables)
High Pride ran up a four-race winning streak with scores in the Dominion Day at WO and the Grade I Pacific Classic at DMR to earn his spot in the Classic field but his complete regression in an allowance prep at SA was shocking and you have to wonder if it was the right spot for this colt. He had everything his own way and was still caught in the final strides and now, is asked to carry four-pounds more in the biggest race of the year; not an easy task for a colt who had such promise but such a move backwards as well.
Analysis-What you make of his prep will determine how much you back him
Fair Odds-20/1
12-Greek Poet (Four-year-old gray gelding / Owner-Hawaiian Shirt Guy)
Given his prowess at the 1 ¼ mile distance, anything better than a midpack finish in the JC Gold Cup would have made Greek Poet the favourite for the BC Classic but he showed absolutely nothing for the second straight year in that race and now, has inflated odds and a lack of confidence to carry around for 2-minutes. He was the favourite and never picked up his feet against rivals he faces yet again and if you can throw that race out in his return to SA, you could score a square price and a possible upset over horses who prepped much better than he did.
Analysis-Toss out his BEL start and look to his ten-furlong form
Fair Odds-6/1
13-Hardline (Five-year-old gray horse / Owner-Our Athletes)
The battle for Top Older Male is on the line in the Classic and Hardline has a chance to wrest it from the hands of others with a big effort, although post 13 and two dismal efforts in the Whitney and the Awesome Again will not make it easy for him or his supporters. His win in the Foster at CD was the best of the year, with a mammoth 104-speed rating, but his form has dropped off so much that it will be difficult for him to overcome so much and still top the best of this field, even with excellent workouts in preparation.
Analysis-Last two efforts have increased his odds dramatically
Fair Odds-20/1
14-Dial It In (Three-year-old chestnut colt / Owner-Heavens Own)
Because of the Win-And-You’re-In runners finishing below him in points, Dial It In actually just squeezes into the Classic field on points and has really not done enough to warrant a huge look with only the SA Derby and a second in the Whitney to fall back on in terms of form. He was second in the ONT Derby against much easier before being sold to his new connections and that owner switch might be too much for this colt to handle, with the farthest gate only making his journey more difficult if he chooses to show speed.
Analysis-Might have to take back, save ground and make a final run
Fair Odds-30/1
Overall
It shows to the depth of the Grade I BC Classic field that, with $6000.000 and multiple championships on the line, only three of the 14 horses entered have won multiple Grade I races this season and understandably, make up the top three horses for this handicapper going into the most important race of the year. Carneyman is the feel-good story of 2016, having come back from such a disastrous start to win the BEL, Haskell and finish second in the JC Gold Cup and that kind of determination has to make him the tepid favourite to become the first auto-generated horse to win since Whats Up in 2010. Greek Poet won the SA Handicap and part of the Pacific Classic and clearly did not handle the off-going at BEL last time so a return to SA and fast dirt might be just enough to get him to the winner’s circle while Copper Beast and Ned Isakoff have been at or near the top of the three-year-old division all year long, with wins in the AR Derby, PRK, Travers and PA Derby back up their credentials and add intrigue to what is already the most fascinating race of the season.
Prediction
Win-Carneyman (5/1)
Place-Greek Poet (6/1)
Show-Copper Beast (6/1)
4th-Ned Isakoff (6/1)
Triple T Racing 🙂
Categories: BC 2015-17, THE BREEDERS CUP
