March 24, 2016
The Grade II FG Oaks might not be the most important prep for the Grade I KY Oaks but still holds some clout with 100 points on the line for the winner and as expected, an overflow field of 12 has been assembled but with only a single Grade I winner amongst them. In order to join multiple Graded Stakes winners Just Too Blue, Forty Carrots and Jillybean, they will have to negotiate a tough 1 1/16 mile at FG with tight turns that will aid the inside runners, and force the pace from the outside for those trying to secure an early position.
1-Dirty Deeds (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Aer Stables)
Dirty Deeds caught a solid pace in the Davona Dale at GP last time out and was able to close well for third and with the added distance and an inside post, she might get the speed on the outside and could find enough to chase down the lane. The only concern would be getting shuffled out the back of the pack and if that happens, she will have to find enough room late to make a run when others might have a clearer shot.
Analysis-Will enjoy the longer distance if she can find room
Fair Odds-10/1
2-Laff Night Out (Three-year-old black filly / Owner-Buddhabase)
Laff Night Out has two wins and a second from three recent starts going a route of ground and that kind of form is impressive, even with the step up in class, and she will try to make the most of her stalking speed here with another big effort for a high percentage owner. She might not be Grade I caliber yet but ON-bred races will be her beck and call this season and this could be the start of something great for a filly who seems to be improving with each start.
Analysis-Loves two turns and should be sitting the perfect trip
Fair Odds-6/1
3-Sovereign Nation (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Paradise Stable)
Three wins from her last four starts show that Sovereign Nation has a knack for winning but all of her good efforts have been on the grass and she must be able to translate that form to the main track if she hopes to earn her stripes. Two recent wins have come at a longer distance but the speed ratings have been lower than needed and she will have to show speed early and hope that her talent can carry her the entire way.
Analysis-Turf to dirt angle can be used to full effect here
Fair Odds-10/1
4-Wicked Heat (Three-year-old chestnut filly / Owner-EasyMoney Stables)
Grade I winner Wicked Heat has tested the best of her division in three big efforts since that huge score at SA and coming off a second in the Alexandra, where she closed powerfully but was outkicked to the wire, she looks poised for another peak effort before heading to CD for the Oaks. The tough part is that her speed ratings have declined since that top mark of 98 and unless she continues to improve, she might be left in the same state as the champion filly, with others catching up to her talent as the season goes on.
Analysis-Battle tested but still needs to step up her game
Fair Odds-4/1
5-Disney Music (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Sarah Stables)
After a fourth place finish in the BC Juvenile Fillies and a win in the Grade II Demoiselle, Disney Music looked to have a bright future ahead but that all got derailed when she was only seventh in the Alexandria and will now have to rebound in a big way to hit the board. That was a huge regression in her second start of the year and one that is definitely cause for concern; workouts have not been improving and it will be tough to back her with any confidence, even with the better post position.
Analysis-Not the same filly as last year
Fair Odds-12/1
6-Looknlisten (Three-year-old black filly / Owner-D J C Racing Stables)
Looknlisten was so well regarded in her Graded Stakes debut that she was made the favourite last time out in the Alexandria but was absolutely dismal from a wide draw and looks to play the part of spoiler if she can completely rebound. After improving speed ratings to that point, she never ran a step behind modest splits and if the fractions are sensible up front, it might be enough to stop her closing kick once again.
Analysis-Needs a pace and that might not happen here
Fair Odds-10/1
7-My Lady (Three-year-old chestnut filly / Owner-Calia Stable)
One of the fillies who ran well in the Alexandria was My Lady but distance limitations will come into play and she will have to maintain her speed like she did at AQU two back if she hopes to have any chance of winning the FG Oaks. The fractions last time were solid but nothing crazy, yet she had nothing left in the drive and facing better fillies here will be stern test for her and one this handicapper thinks might be too much.
Analysis-Will hope to get a clear lead and just keep going
Fair Odds-15/1
8-You Gotta Believe (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Aarons Hosses)
Take You Gotta Believe out of stakes company and she is a very good filly; put her into stakes company and she is not quite the same, and that is the dilemma facing her owner as she looks to step up off the move from SA. The Las Virgenes was a solid enough return to the main track against some very good fillies but she clunked up for fourth at nearly 500-1 and that kind of price, and that kind of effort, won’t be enough to win here.
Analysis-Will need every bit of the distance to get a piece
Fair Odds-20/1
9-West Coast Cooler (Three-year-old gray filly / Owner-5 A Racing)
Winless in four starts since August, West Coast Cooler has been well backed in many good events but has never been able to get the job done and will do her best to sit a nice trip and actually make a run at the leaders down the stretch. She tried to go fast in the Old Hat and could not keep up, then was unable to close at the longer distance of the Las Virgenes; now she goes even longer and has not had success, making her a longer shot that her record might tend to indicate.
Analysis-Has struggled going long and that should continue
Fair Odds-20/1
10-Effortless Admiral (Three-year-old chestnut filly / Owner-Ekli Stable)
Take out that effort in the slop of the Grade I Frizette and Effortless Admiral is a very nice filly with four wins from seven starts and after a win the Busanda and a sharp second in the Davona Dale, she will look to graduate to her first big score with a huge closing kick. One of the outside stalls will help her chances as she can take back and make a final run and return for a familiar jockey will only make things more lucrative as she tries to earn her spot at CD.
Analysis-Impressive as of late and faces a suspect field
Fair Odds-4/1
11-Love In The Mist-SCRATCHED
12-No Scrubs (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Mb Stables)
No Scrubs is a homebred for owner Mb Stables and comes from a regal bloodline, as a half to multiple stakes winners In Control and No Doubt About It, and should be one of the fillies on the improve in the Oaks after scoring as the choice in a minor allowance at TAM. The owner scratched their more favoured stakes winner to get this filly a best post but she will still need to get into the race early and that will be tough for her but not impossible from this stable.
Analysis-Improving but needs to put it all together to win
Fair Odds-8/1
13-Kitty Packs A Punch (Three-year-old bay filly / Owner-Oval Express Farms)
Kitty Packs A Punch gets the widest post in the Oaks and coupled with even finishes against easier rivals, it makes her one of the longer shots in the field even if she is one of the many closers. Her speed ratings have never been high enough and while her workouts going long might be solid, she still needs to find a way to settle early and have enough in the lane to close and that is a tall order for a filly of her caliber.
Analysis-Wide draw sets her up for an even effort
Fair Odds-25/1
Overall
There really is no standout in the Grade II FG Oaks since many in the field are coming in off lackluster efforts or ones below what is needed to win this type of event but both Effortless Admiral and Wicked Heat have shown enough in their most recent starts to really fit the bill of the favourite and cannot be separated, with the outside filly warranting a bigger look as the up-and-comer. Both have excellent closing ability and the key will be the right trip; the one with the best might be Laff Night Out, who gets an inside draw and could get the jump if the rail opens up early.
Predictionh
Win-Effortless Admiral (4/1)
Place-Wicked Heat (4/1)
Show-Laff Night Out (6/1)
Triple T Racing 🙂
Categories: Grade II, STAKES ARTICLES
