September 24, 2015
It took a while for the Grade I Vosburgh Stakes to become an important race in the echelon of sprinting in North America but now it ranks as one of the pinnacles for those who go fast and on Saturday, will take its place amongst a huge card of racing at BEL going its now standard six-furlong distance. Bold Ruler won in 1957 to become the first real superstar winner and after Affectionately won in 1964, the flood gates opened and Dr Fager, Ta Wee, Triple Bend and Forego all won in an eight year span to really put it on the map. Champions Groovy and Housebuster added lore to the race and in 2003, Ghostzapper won before becoming Horse Of The Year the following season to continue the great tradition of championship caliber winners.
HRP has seen its fair share of superstars win including Omni back in 2003 and the immortal Alpha Ultimo in 2005, 2006 and 2009 at the ripe old age of 9, and let us not forget Fuji King, who won at the age of seven as part of a $3,200.000 career. Shoot Skyhigh was a champion off his win in 2010, Sweeper backed up his win with a BC Sprint score in 2011 and Bold Star did the same double last year, rocketing from well off the pace both times to score emphatically. This year, the defending champion is not back but a healthy mix of three-year-olds and older runners is in his steed but only three horses come in off victories and that could make choosing a favourite a very difficult process.
1-Domination Nation (Five-year-old chestnut horse / Owner-Double J Stables)
Domination Nation was a Grade I winner and BC Sprint runner-up last season at three but his four-year-old campaign only shows a single victory and two recent midpack finishes and unless he finds that old form, midpack looks like another logical spot for this former $25.000 claimer. A lackluster seventh in the Grade I Crosby, he needs to show another closing gear if he hopes to win here and while he does have merits, they have been tarnished and need some buffing up.
Analysis-Fast for sure but has not shown that closing kick lately
Fair Odds-12/1
2-Bonsai Gullis (Three-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Running Farms)
A one-time winner in three starts since being purchased, Bonsai Gullis was a closing fourth in the Amsterdam back in early August and while that might have been his best effort, it was not good enough to win this race and he will be running for a minor placing when all is over. Unable to crack a triple-digit speed rating yet, and only a minor stakes winner at best, he will be overmatched against top sprinters here and might be better suited to the turf going forward if his workouts are any indication.
Analysis-Not in the same league as others
Fair Odds-25/1
3-Slow And Slower (Five-year-old black gelding / Owner-Blushing Meadows)
Slow And Slower tried to step up in the Grade I Vanderbilt but was unable to quicken enough late and wound up fifth and while that could have been a move forward, he faces two horses who were better than him on that day and that makes things tough. He ran up three in a row before that but the speed ratings were lower than most and although he might like the distance, he will be setting the early pace and speed horses tend to falter late in the BEL stretch, which is longer than most and makes runners prone to moving too soon.
Analysis-Needs to hold his speed right to the wire-to-wire
Fair Odds-10/1
4-Speedballz (Three-year-old chestnut colt / Owner-Nordyke Racing)
Grade III winner Speedballz could be turning a corner off his fourth in the Tale Of The Cat and with experience under his belt, steps up to the big time and could be one of the sleepers in this talented field. Speed ratings are solid, workouts are fast and he gets an inside post which will help his stalking ability; all factors that could lead to a big effort, and one that will be greatly improved by big odds.
Analysis-Continues to improve and could be a sleeper
Fair Odds-6/1
5-Moon Landing (Three-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Mb Stables)
Grade I Triple Bend winner Moon Landing closed well to win that race, and closed well to finish third in the Forego but the question is whether six-furlongs is his distance and that will be tested on Saturday as he looks to finalize his plans for the BC. Two straight 100+ speed ratings make him the only one in the field with that speed but a slow workout at MTH might be a bit of cause for concern and he will have to overcome some speedy rivals if he hopes to add another Grade I to the Mb Stables credentials.
Analysis-Grade I winning sophomore might find distance a challenge
Fair Odds-4/1
6-Trench Admiral (Three-year-old chestnut gelding / Owner-Grimley)
Considered one of the best three-year-old sprinters at HRP, Trench Admiral became a Grade I winner last time out in the Kings Bishop but knows how to win at six-furlongs and could be extremely tough if he gets the jump on his rivals around the sweeping BEL turns. He has steadily improved throughout his entire three-year-old campaign with both speed ratings and workouts going in the right direction and with the break in weights, has to be considered the favourite to become the first sophomore winner since 2008.
Analysis-Big win last time sets him up nicely here
Fair Odds-3/1
7-Wild Glory (Six-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Paradise Stable)
Wild Glory has not been as short as six-furlongs since 2011 and coming off a sharp second in the Grade II Obrien, tested uncharted waters with a return to a true sprinting distance. Back-to-back wins in the Vigil and solid placings in a number of races at BEL show that he is a very good horse but not one who ranks among the best in Grade I company and that will make him a longer shot than he would be if we saw anything recent at this distance.
Analysis-Likes seven-furlongs but six is the question mark
Fair Odds-12/1
8-Steadyashegoes (Four-year-old gray gelding / Owner-Sanny Village)
Owner Sanny Village won the Vosburgh last year with Bold Star and looks for a repeat win with Steadyashegoes, a five-time winner who used the addition of Lasix in his last start to upset the Vanderbilt by a gutsy neck. The runner-up came back to finish off-the-board at SAR so that does not bode well but on form alone, he has to be ranked as one of the choices if he can set the pace and sprint home like a good four-year-old should at this level.
Analysis-Won wire-to-wire last time but might be tested here
Fair Odds-5/1
9-Sweep The Event (Four-year-old bay colt / Owner-D J C Racing Stables)
Sweep The Event set the early pace in the Obrien but folded under the pressure and wound up last and with that effort tossed out, he looks to be decent enough to make a good account of himself, even if its not for the win. He only owns one recent stakes win and that was a shocker at KEE earlier this year so the chances of him getting up for another big win would be in line with long odds, and that is exactly what he will be if he fails to hold his ground late
Analysis-Did not keep pace at DMR and that is the fear here
Fair Odds-15/1
10-Trumpits (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Captinj)
Trumpits was a sharp maiden winner at SAR in his last start and while there might be some intrigue from his backers, he does not possess the necessary experience to win a Grade I of this caliber off a single race in 2015. If the speed rating was in the triple-digits, you could consider him a legitimate threat but that 92-mark is nothing special and this is a very tough spot for him and one that puts him off the board.
Analysis-Not ready for a race like this
Fair Odds-25/1
11-Rhythm Kathology (Four-year-old bay colt / Owner-Oval Express Farms)
Rhythm Kathology is winless in eight starts this year and has been rated at nearly 400-1 in two of his last three attempts; all in all, not the kind of horse you would back with any confidence in a Grade I event, let alone from an outside gate. It took him a number of tries to break his maiden and he has never won a stakes race so he has to rank as an outsider with the hope that he will drop in class next time out.
Analysis-Not a factor
Fair Odds-50/1
12-Caymanas Park (Four-year-old gray gelding / Owner-Night Rider Stables)
A crack sprinter who finished third in the BC Sprint last year, Caymanas Park might just be peaking at the right time off his fourth in the Vanderbilt and if he gets some pace to chase, he has the best chance of closing late into what could be hot fractions. That being said, he has been off the board in his last three starts and picks up weight from his last so the hope is that he can enjoy the return to six-furlongs more than others, and outrun his rivals to take at least a minor share
Analysis-Has done well this year despite his placings
Fair Odds-8/1
Overall
The Grade I Vosburgh is a wide-open affair and can go any number of ways but it feels like a three-year-old will step up like they have all season and Trench Admiral is the gelding to do it, off a win in the Kings Bishop and a very quick workout in preparation. Moon Landing showed little at MTH in his prep but was third in the Forego behind some solid runners, so he will get my second choice nod, while Steadyashegoes is a Grade I winner who will try to go wire-to-wire and might be soften up early and give it up late to horses carrying less weight.
Prediction
Win-Trench Admiral (3/1)
Place-Moon Landing (4/1)
Show-Steadyashegoes (5/1)
Triple T Racing 🙂
Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES
