3/6/21

   14    TAM   The TAM Derby (GII)  [KYD]

             $400.000     3yo        1 1/16m Dirt           120lbs

We head down to Oldsmar and will swing by the Tampa Bay Brewing Company prior to the races… but I digress.  The gate is full as is the hopes of the owners trying to get to Louisville, that first Saturday in May.  Who will get the job done in The TAM Derby (GII)?  Well it’s an interesting field that even includes a girl taking on the boys.  I landed on what will probably be the chalk, Marine One.  That last out win in the Withers (GIII) coupled with his win in the Nashua (GIII), then sprinkle in a coupe of near-misses vs. graded foes… he’s tough to look past.  Another with a big resume’ is Clubhouse, fresh off of a win over this track in the Davis Stakes (GIII).  Add in his rags-to-riches story and he’s a fan favorite.  A barn that always seems to rock these races is Aer Stables and I’d give Locamotive a bit chance to “freight train” this group. That was a nice win in the Holy Bull (GIII) and he also won the Hopeful (GI) as a 2yo.  A big horse with a big plan.

Grab a cold snack and let’s head down to the rail for what should be a fun race.

Here’s The Field –

Likes to close from way back in his last two and ran into traffic issues at GP in the Holy Bull (GIII).  He broke maiden going wire to wire, so do the tactics change or can he get a clean run to the wire.  If neither, it could be a rough trip.

What a fantastic claim.  Snagged out of a $15.000 race at FL, he’s now gone on to win the Davis Stakes (GIII) over this strip and has to be considered today as well.  He was sent off at 16/1 odds so was that a one race fluke or is he for real?

Won a stakes at BTP  last summer but it’s been tough sledding since then.  He was fourth a couple of times vs graded horses but only beat one horse last out against Cal bred stakes, and this is obviously tougher than that.  He needs to find more.

Sold for $500.000 two back and the two starts since have been less that great although he was only beaten a length in each.  He won a PA-bred stakes at PID while in the previous barn.  He will need to tighten it up to be in the middle of this one.

Four wins from ten starts and a couple of bit wins including the Nashua (GIII) and last out taking the Withers (GIII) at AQU.  Another one like that last out performance could lead him right back into the winner’s circle.  Give him a big chance here.

Won the Best Pal (GII) in his Freshman season but not much since then.  The vet paid a visit before that last out race but eighth of twelve didn’t get the results the barn was probably hoping for.  He will need his best to be part of the festivities. 

You know that I’m no fan of the girls vs. the boys but this barn is sharp when it comes to these 3yo prep races.  Maybe they have something big planned.  She did take the Gasparilla Stakes over this track last out, so she likes the track.   

Aer’s gets side-by-side posts and this one sure does look good.  Won the Hopeful (GI) at SAR as a freshman and took the Holy Bull (GIII) to kick off the sophomore season.  He’s got a ton of speed and I’d expect him to be on/near the lead today. 

Had a four race win streak snapped when leaving WV-bred stakes and took on graded foes in the Lecomte Stakes (GIII) at FG.  It’s not going to get any easier here so either he needs to improve a tad or it’s going to be a tough spot.

Broke maiden last out, then the vet stopped by the barn to make sure he concentrates on running vs. dating.  Sharp barn and I don’t think they’d just throw one in unless they felt good about it, so maybe he steps up.  I’ll probably look at some others. 

Kicked off 21 with a win vs Cal-bred Alw horses and then sold right after that victory.  The new barn goes right after the gusto and jumps in with the big boys.  He struggled vs. state bred stakes company so there has to be some improvement or else. 

Won three in a row including taking down NY-bred stakes horses at AQU, then closed well in the the Davis Stakes (GIII) but was fifth beaten two in that one.  If he can stay a bit closer to the pace, maybe he’s worth looking for on your exotics.

COZMAN   5 / 2 / 8               Willie’s Green Card    2 / 8 / 5                 

Categories: Grade II, STAKES ARTICLES, TC 2021-2023