San Diego Handicap (Grade 2)- $300.000 Purse
DMR- For Three Year Olds and Upward
One Mile and One Sixteenth on the Dirt
July 27, 2024

This Saturday out west, we will have 22nd edition of the San Diego Handicap at DMR, a Grade 2 that offers a $300.000 purse. It’s a race that has been kind to TwinTowersRacing in the past, as the trainer will be looking to pick up his third straight win in the race, and fifth overall. Five others will be standing in his way to try and keep that from happening. Last year’s winner was Sting Operation, and it was one of two races that he won during the year. It seems to have been his last hurrah, as he has not won again and struggled since. He has since been retired. Now, let’s take a look at the six heading to the post this year:

1- Tehran (Mb Stables, ridden by J R Velazquez)- Despite not winning last year, Tehran still made $600.000 and found his way to the BC Dirt Mile, where he ran third. In 2024, he has picked up two victories in four starts, highlighted by the PRM Cornhusker Handicap at the start of this month. He is the high weight in this race, carrying 2-3 pounds more than everyone else, but he should be able to overcome that.

2- One Last Punch Line (Alydar Stables, ridden by F Geroux)- After appearing in a handful open allowance at TUP, One Last Punch Line was moved to the grass in April, and won once in three starts on the surface, highlighted by the Grade 3 Louisville at CD in May. However, he struggled in the Wise Dan last month, and with that, the trainer is going to see how his horse does while going back to the main track. A great work at SAR in anticipation may have helped make that decision easy.

3- Chagrin Falls (Mo Mentum Farm, ridden by R M Hernandez)- Ran against Tehran earlier this month in the PRM Cornhusker Handicap, and got his picture taken with him while finishing second. They carried the same weight in this race, and now Chagrin Falls will carry two fewer pounds, so that will help his cause against that rival. He’s won three of his last six but is still hoping to break through in a stake. Perhaps this can be the day.

4- Nutmeg (TwinTowersRacing, ridden by A Cedillo)- Carries the torch for the trainer in the effort to win his third straight San Diego Handicap. However, Nutmeg doesn’t win much, doing so just thrice over 26 starts, and that’s with it taking forever to break his maiden. He’s run in several stakes since then and has had some close calls but no wins. Last time out, he was given a big assignment in the Metropolitan Handicap at SAR and finished in the middle of the field. Can see him getting a piece but won’t trust him on top.

5- Caveat Emptor (High Voltage, ridden by D E Centeno)- TwinTowersRacing probably thought it took Nutmeg forever to break his maiden, but Caveat Emptor needed even more time. This gelding had a serious bout of seconditis for the longest time but finally broke through in start #18. He’s won once since, and it was a good one: the $125.000 Forego Stakes at TP, but he has been struggling since. With that, I don’t have much confidence with him here.

6- Luna Dream (Asgar, ridden by M Franco)- Showed a lot of promise early in his career and even ran in the BC Juvenile Turf Sprint of 2022, but as he has gotten older and has become a very inconsistent horse. His last start was a win in the $50.000 Bud Stakes at EMD, but his inconsistency bugs me and I don’t know if I can count on him to run two big races in a row, especially when he is moving up like this.

Prediction: 3-1-4-2

— NS

Categories: Grade II, STAKES ARTICLES