5/25/2020
6 LS TX Derby
$300.000 3yo 1 1/16m Dirt 120lbs
The west side of Dallas will be the stage for this one as a field of eight will be headed to the gate for the 2020 TX Derby, to be run at a mile and a sixteenth, here at LS. I’m headed to the rail for my top choice today… Deadly Rivalry looked good taking down the CA Derby last out, and I think he has a chance to make it back-to-back Derbys. Three wins in his last four starts, and he seems to be getting better with each start. Where else to look for a second choice than the horse that almost always runs second – Black And Red. AW picked this one up via private sale and he has a pair of runner-up starts for the top-notch conditioner. I’m not picking against a trend like that. I think Regional Tune has a chance to get back into form as well, so it looks like a good bunch.
Here’s The Field –
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Deadly Rivalry |
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Nakamura Stables |
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Hernandez J J |
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120 |
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3/1 |
Lightly raced but really coming into his own… only five starts but three wins and a third, and looked good taking the CA Derby last out, at today’s distance. He has speed and knows how to use it, so expect him to be on/near the front end of this one and the inside post should help that style. He has big chance.
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The Mist |
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Rampage Stable |
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Rosario J |
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120 |
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9/2 |
Was on the TC Trail but just couldn’t get to the winner’s circle against those horses. Got the job done last out taking an Alw group at SA and did it in wire-to-wire fashion. He has shown some closing ability as well, so I’m not sure how the barn will attack in this one but he should have a shot at them.
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Black And Red |
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Australia Wide |
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Sanchez M J |
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120 |
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7/2 |
Switched hands two back and it seems to be the same story for AW… seconditus. He has a single win but six seconds from his eight starts and was runner up in the CA Derby last out. Right back with similar and I guess you have to think he has a shot… at second.
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Tip The Dancer |
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Nolespan Racing |
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Franco M |
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120 |
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8/1 |
Broke maiden against NM-bred Alw horses last out. That was only his third start and they go right after the gusto in this one. He was second at CT vs. maidens before winning last out, so he’s been pretty solid. Still, this is quite the acid test at this point.
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Silver Shotgun |
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Mb Stables |
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Espinoza V |
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120 |
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5/1 |
Back-to-back wins so the big stable sends this one up the ladder for his first stakes effort. Broke maiden vs. Fla-bred at GP then won against N1X Alw horses at TAM. This seems like a big step up, but I’ll never question this outfit, and would give him a shot.
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Becket |
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John Henry |
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Hernandez R M |
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120 |
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7/1 |
Looked good breaking maiden then winning a ONT-bred stakes at WO, but it’s been tough sledding since then. Eighth in the Risen Star (GI) then tenth in the SUN Derby (GIII) makes me wonder what’s left in the tank for this one. He needs to change his ways or it’s another long day at the office.
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Regional Tune |
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Estero Farms |
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Bahen S R |
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120 |
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4/1 |
Looked good breaking maiden at GP then taking the Battaglia Memorial at TP. He changed hands and went to the BG Stakes and although he closed a late gap he was still seventh beaten two that afternoon. This could be a spot for him to get back into form in short order.
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Siri S Isakoff |
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TwinTowersRacing |
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Lopez P |
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120 |
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10/1 |
Broke maiden at TAM back in Feb and has a pair of races since then, the best being a third last out in a OptAlw race as EMD. This is obviously a thicker group that he’s been facing, and with the post position, nothing looks favorable to me.
Categories: STAKES ARTICLES, Ungraded
