September 27, 2016
The Grade I Vosburgh has produced a host of champions, numerous Horse Of The Year winners, two BC winners in Sprint winner Artax and Classic winner Ghostzapper and some of the greatest victories in HRP history and on Super Saturday at BEL, another horse will add their name to the list going six-furlongs. Run for a slightly reduced $350.000 purse but still a Win-And-You’re-In race for the BC Sprint, the likes of Omni, Alpha Ultimo, Fuji King, Shoot Skyhigh and Bold Star have taken down wins in this crucial event and while defending champion Speedballz is not here to defend his title, it has given new hope to the three-year-old against their older rivals and half of the field are sophomores including the Kings Bishop winner who is one of only three entrants coming in off a victory, making this a tough field to handicap.
1-Hold My Steel (Three-year-old black gelding / Owner-Mb Stables)
Hold My Steel has four wins in six starts this year but his campaign was interrupted with an even effort in the Grade II Amersterdam and while he did win at SAR as the favourite, that effort came with a modest speed rating and he will have to faster against better runners. He has blitzed workouts at BEL, as per usual from this stable, and will be sitting the ideal trip from the inside but the question is going to be class and until he comes up with the goods, he has been considered a middle choice and not one of the favourites.
Analysis-Quick but might not be quick enough
Fair Odds-10/1
2-Crush Alvar (Four-year-old gray colt / Owner-Cherrytree Hill Farm)
After a big three-year-old campaign, Crush Alvar has been modestly campaigned with only a single lesser stakes win in five starts and after finishing fifth back in April, comes back off a huge layoff against the toughest field he has ever faced. Speed ratings are good but hit their peak back in January and have declined since and unless there is something special in his forecast, he does not look to be a contender given the lack of racing.
Analysis-Comes in off a huge layoff and does not look the part
Fair Odds-40/1
3-Give Your All (Three-year-old chestnut gelding / Owner-Mb Stables)
As expected, Mb Stables are loaded for Grade I races all weekend long and Give Your All should be the favourite in the Vosburgh with a stalking style that has worked perfectly in races like the Barrera and the Kings Bishop, where he scored a huge win with a mammoth 104-speed rating. Another inside post position and a modest field will assist his chances and although the distance might be short for him, he will still be given every opportunity to win by a jockey who knows him and workouts that should benefit him going shorter.
Analysis-The favourite off his score at SAR
Fair Odds-5/2
4-Baffle (Four-year-old bay colt / Owner-Nj Vets)
Winless since a 35-1 upset in the Grade I Crosby last year, Baffle has only hit the board once this year and coming off a tiring sixth at ELP, will be one of the longest shots in the Vosburgh bar none. Speed ratings are lower than many and his past performances are not good enough so you would have to assume that he is here with hopes of hitting the jackpot at big odds once again, especially facing this level for the first time almost a year.
Analysis-Longshot status until proven otherwise
Fair Odds-50/1
5-Trench Admiral (Four-year-old chestnut gelding / Owner-Grimley)
2016 has not gone according to plan for Trench Admiral and the BC Sprint winner and Vosburgh runner-up from one year ago is hoping to make a case for his championship once again, off a 12th place finish in the Forego going longer. He is certainly fast enough but has not been able to upend some of the top sprinters thus far this season and facing this group, might be able to come through with another good effort as he looks to earn his way back to the big race at SA.
Analysis-Might finally get a chance to come through with a win
Fair Odds-7/2
6-Captain Rush (Three-year-old black colt / Owner-Australia Wide)
Captain Rush was highly regarded going into the Forego but broke slowly and was never a factor and is hoping to rebound with a cut back to six-furlongs and the benefit of experience against Grade I competition. He came up with a career-best speed rating at SAR and seemed to be passing rivals at the end but the question is whether he can get into the race sooner and if he can, whether can overcome a middle post and hopefully beat some of his age-related rivals.
Analysis-Decent in his last but needs to show more early
Fair Odds-8/1
7-Nefarious Leadership (Five-year-old black horse / Owner-Mb Stables)
Smile Sprint Handicap winner Nefarious Leadership tried to go longer last time out in an allowance at SAR but came up empty when it counted and will now try to cut back in distance and try to regain some of the sprint form. He seems to be good over an off-track and there is a chance of rain in the forecast so a good track might be possible and if that is the case, he has just as good as a chance as any against this field, including his stablemates.
Analysis-Would be best suited to a less than fast track
Fair Odds-6/1
8-Snowmizer (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-D J C Racing Stables)
Since being purchased for a monster $1250.000 back in April, Snowmizer has done absolutely nothing and the idea is that finally cutting back to a shorter distance might be something to spark his interest and really change his form. He has been decent enough in the past but based on his current form, you really cannot back him for the win and until he shows something decent, it will be longshot status for this very well bred colt.
Analysis-Cannot be played off his current cycle
Fair Odds-30/1
9-Agua Dulce (Six-year-old gray gelding / Owner-Sanny Village)
Agua Dulce sprung a huge upset over this course and distance back in June, winning the True North from off the pace, and after failing to quicken as the tepid favourite in the Obrien last time out, will ship back across to NY in hopes of earning his BC stripes. The move back to six-furlongs will benefit him better than almost anyone in the field and his best chance might be to burn out of there and set the pace, making him a viable contender for a wire-to-wire win in a field without a lot of speed.
Analysis-Might be the early leader if he chooses
Fair Odds-8/1
10-Noble Mou (Three-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Alegria)
Minor state-bred stakes winner Noble Mou won a much lesser event at MTH last time out and while he finished up with a solid final furlong, the speed rating came back light and if you take those to heart, this is a gelding who will need to be quicker to contend. He has never popped a huge rating and failed to handle Grade III company at WO two back so the chances of him coming up with the biggest race of his career and still beating the rest of the field will be hard to take, even if workouts say he is quick.
Analysis-Never really handled this level before
Fair Odds-20/1
11-Reel Steal (Four-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Scarletandgraystable)
Purchased last December for only $75.000, Reel Steal has been within one-length of victory in every start since and although he was only fourth as the favourite in the Grade I Vanderbilt, that race came over the tighter SAR oval and these sweeping turns at BEL will play right into his front-running style. The outside stall should be of no concern and his speed figures are some of the best in the field, making him the best of the older runners and one who could be coming into his own at exactly the right time.
Analysis-Tried to handle the top class once again
Fair Odds-4/1
12-Global Warning (Three-year-old gray colt / Owner-Downwind Stables)
Grade III placed two back, then purchased for $200.000, Global Warning was a tiring fourth in the FL Sire Stakes program before changing hands once again and with the farthest gate, will simply have to be better to hit the board against this full field. Facing older runners is never an easy task for a three-year-old and not only does he face good runners but he faces top three-year-olds and on paper, looks to be overmatched against this level until he can finally step up his game.
Analysis-Wide draw and that odd stable change make him vulnerable
Fair Odds-25/1
Overall
Three-year-olds make up half of the Grace I Vosburgh and a three-year-old should be the likely favourite, with Give Your All attracting plenty of attention after his huge win in the Kings Bishop at SAR this Summer. Trench Admiral is the only horse returning from last year to contest this year’s edition and should be well backed while Reel Steal has been excellent all year and could be one to breakthrough with a big win before the BC Sprint.
Prediction
Win-Give Your All (5/2)
Place-Trench Admiral (3/1)
Show-Reel Steal (4/1)
Triple T Racing 🙂
Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES
