CCA Oaks (Grade 1)- $500.000 Purse
SAR- For Fillies Three Years Old
One Mile and One Eighth on the Dirt
July 20, 2024

Wasted Away looks to continue her strong three-year-old campaign on Saturday in the 21st running of the Grade 1 CCA Oaks, a race that offers a $500.000 purse. We’ve seen on greats win this race in the past, such as Mrs Bombastic and Naples, and now we will see if the reigning KYO winner can get the win here at the “Graveyard of Favorites”. There will be a total of ten fillies heading to the starting gate, with three of them having run in the KYO. Last year, the defending KYO winner, Yow, ran in the CCA Oaks, but SAR lived up to its reputation on her, as she finished tenth and never seemed to recover. The winner of that race was Scarlett Dream, who was fourth in that KYO (in a dead heat). The filly formerly trained by Arindel has had a couple of decent races since then but could use more consistency. Let’s meet all of our participants for this race:

1- Lab Virus (Saratoga Stud, ridden by Ar Bocachica)- Had a strong career in overnights for her prior trainer, Wood Duck Stables, including a three-race winning streak right before she was claimed for $32.000. Saratoga Stud had bigger plans, and immediately put her into graded races. At first, it did not go well, but in her second graded race she won the Grade 3 Gazelle at AQU, and then was second in the Summertime Oaks at SA last month. Based on that, she should be a contender here.

2- Nine Lives (Mm Racing, ridden by L Saez)- Ran on turf for a while, but would be moved back to the main track in June, and won an allowance. Three weeks later, she was sent to a sprint and won the $100.000 Malvern Rose Stakes for PA-Breds. This will be her third race in five weeks, and while I don’t have a problem with horses having that second race on short rest, I have seen far too often that it is the third race in short succession that gives the problem. Especially when moving into a Grade 1. But she does have nine lives.

3- Ranger Danger (Fractious, ridden by A Beschizza)- Ya know, the trainer has three entries in this race: Wasted Away and Purple Charger, both very successful recently, and then we get this one. Did run second in the Gazelle but has fired off two duds since then. So, I have to see it this way: why would the trainer spend another big nomination fee on this one, when he had the other ones running? All I can think of is that he is fully confident that Ranger Danger will show the Gazelle side of her and feels those duds are ancient history. I almost want to pick her for that reason, alone.

4- Wasted Away (Fractious, ridden by T Gaffalione)- Ran second in the Ashland, and Fractious bought her a day later (sale would have been agreed to on the 6th with the 72-hour hold). Fractious clearly saw something special with her, and Wasted Away backed it up by winning the KYO in her Fractious debut. Not to be outdone, she would go to the Acorn after that, and nearly pulled that off as well, before settling for second behind some horse named Let Me Explain that you may have heard of before. Works are great, and she’s peaking. She deserves to be the favorite, but we are at SAR after all.

5- Nasca Lines (Delta Farms, ridden by D Davis)- After getting her first race out of the way, Nasca Lines won four straight, which included three prep races for the KYO. That made her seem like a good option to win that race, but after running near the back early, she could only get up for fifth. Was a little better a month later in the Acorn, as she was able to cash a fourth-place check and now she is in a good spot to remind people of how good she was early this year.

6- Judicial Watch (TwinTowersRacing, ridden by A Cedillo)- Just one win for this filly over her nine starts, and she comes into this following a couple of mediocre finishes in optional claimers. Those races get nitpicked here because they don’t scream “my next race should be the CCA Oaks”. No public works since May, so I can only assume something has happened privately to excite the trainer. I will have to see it first.

7- Hobo Blues (Alydar Stables, ridden by S X Bridgmohan)- She’s raced five times since being acquired by the trainer, and over that time she has two stake wins and two poor performances. Her most exciting victory came two months ago, in the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes at PIM, but following that she was a complete non-factor in the Acorn. It’s early in her career, but so far in it, she has not had two bad races in a row, so we can feel good about a bounce back here.

8- Reflex Action (D J C Racing Stables, ridden by J C Ferrer)- Got off to a fast start, winning the Frizette, and overcoming a subpar effort in the BC Juvenile Fillies. However, after running second in the $250.000 Martha Washington at OP, we have not seen that side of her again, other than for a glimpse of it in the Eight Belles. Ran third in that race, but three of her last four have been poor.

9- Purple Charger (Fractious, ridden by Mar Garcia)- She has been running against her stablemate, Wasted Away, often lately, and the two of them really are not that far apart in the wire. Purple Charger did win the Ashland and would later head to CD for the KYO and placed in the fourth position. They ran against one another one more time in the Acorn, and she finished one spot behind her stablemate. She’s close enough to flip the script on her here, and these two each seem to have a good shot. A 1-2 finish is not out of the question.

10- Guilt Free (TwinTowersRacing, ridden by J Lezcano)- Seems to be a little better of an option than her stablemate, but she will be making her graded debut. In seven starts, she has won three times but none of them were in the ungraded stakes that she took part in. Ran third of five in her last start, the $175.000 Leslies Lady Stakes, but was still beaten by four lengths there. I’ll pass on the trainer’s horses here.

Prediction: 4-5-9-1

— NS

Categories: Grade I, STAKES ARTICLES