May 18, 2016
I had the extreme pleasure of covering the Grade I PRK way back in 2010, when racing at HRP was much different and horses failed much bigger challenges than whether they could handle the track, or the distance, or the class. It was a time of big dreams from big owners, with stories that transcended the racetrack and horses that created their own memories with huge wins and huge egos. Runners like Alpha Ultimo and Icicle and Dark Crown and Whats Up were carving their name in legend but the TC was not without its talent and more importantly, without a points system in place. That allowed almost anyone with good prep efforts to enter and in that faithful year, led to one of the biggest stories and one of the biggest battles in PRK history.
In the eyes of many in the HRP community, Five Fives had the best chance of winning the TC after his score in the 2010 KYD to go along with odds-on wins in the Champagne, CC Futurity, Southwest and FL Derby; all important route races that had carried serious clout and past history. Unlike frontunners like Fuji Ninja and Fusion, or deep closers like Dani Dauntless, he possessed the stalking ability coupled with route experience that previous winners like Half Spirit and Ghost Walker did not fully have at the time. Add to that a perfect storm of ideal post positions, great handling from jockey Alan Garcia and a field that included only three new shooters in a field of 14 and you had a Grade I PRK that was his for the taking at odds of only 2-1, the lowest in PRK history. But one of those new entrants was Grade I AR Derby winner Mrs Bombastic, who had also taken the HOL Startlet and SA Oaks in previous races to make herself almost the equal of her male rival. Sent off as the close 2.20-1 second choice, she sat patiently well off the pace as the favourite and TC hope sat third through modest splits and when he sprinted clear at the head of the lane, she found the seam she needed and rocketed home to nip him in the final strides, ending the hope of a champion and becoming the most talked about filly at HRP since the days of Java Jive. By years end, she would add the CCA Oaks, Cotillion and BC Ladies Classic to her resume en route to year-end honours as Three-Year-Old Filly champion but Five Fives would romp in the Grade I BEL over her, and score the Haskell, Travers and PA Derby to be named Champion Three-Year-Old Colt and Horse Of The Year. Still, it would be a full five years before another PRK winner would add a future Grade I victory to their credentials, which shows the power of her victory all those years ago.
Now, the focus is on 2016 and the hope that, for the first time since Fuji Ninja way back in 2004, a KYD winner can travel to PIM and score the next jewel in the road to the TC; a feat that has been hampered by new entrants, off-tracks or simply really bad performances. The key is deciphering how the PRK winner comes to be the PRK winner, from past performances to running styles to even surface changes, and those keys will unlock the potential of the winner as a field of 13 looks to upset the upsetter in Water Mummy, who shocked CD with his score only two weeks ago.
Here are some key points when analyzing past PRK winners:
1-Only four horses have won the PRK after taking victory in their last race, with the most recent being Mrs Bombastic in 2010. Two of those were wins on the grass including Real Bull, who won a single allowance event in 2005 before upsetting at nearly 57-1.
2-The most successful posts have been Post 1, Post 5 and Post 14, meaning that horses from both the rail and the farthest gate have been winners in a race that does not seem to favour any position.
3-Three horses have won the race wire-to-wire (Fuji Ninja-2004, Pan A Ram-2012, Mine Captain-2013) and no horse has come from farther than 10th at the first call, meaning deep closers will find it tough on this speedy track.
4-Apart from Fuji Ninja, only one top three finisher from the KYD came back to win the PRK (Dark Crown-2006), making the quick turnaround one of the toughest things to do at HRP
5-No sire of a PRK winner ever won a Grade I race in their own career, with only 3 Grade II victories combined among them (although 2005 winner Dani Dauntless is a half-brother to Cant Sleep Tonight, sire of 2009 winner Like Now).
Just a few tidbits to consider when handicapping your own choice, as past precedence has been a contributing factor in recent years and could help you score a big upset if you chose the right horse for the PIM course. On to the field!
1-Ned Isakoff (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Jerry Garcia Racing)
Ned Isakoff is a two-time winner in nine career starts who was second in both the Holy Bull and FL Derby behind Compress, the 5.50-1 favourite for the Derby who could only finish 12th to this horse’s 10th place effort. He has been able to lead in the past and it probably better suited to a running style that is on the pace, which will be greatly helped by the inside post and a smaller run into the first turn that will allow him to set up shop towards the front and save much needed ground that his rivals will be forced to make up in the first furlongs.
Sire Il Miglio Fabro brings plenty of stamina pedigree into the mix with wins in the TAM Derby, Swaps BC and Grade I SA Handicap, and is the sire of Grade I winners Queen Lyphard, Condottieri (who ran fourth in this race in 2012), Il Matt Kemp, Duca Di Toscana and Kavorka. Dam Never Laffin won twice at one-mile over the MNR main track and has thrown four winners from five foals to race including The Yellow King, an eight-time winner from the aforementioned Condottieri. As for owner Jerry Garcia Racing, they have finished second in this race twice with Wharf Rat and The Maestro and look to continue on the path to $100,000.00 in career earnings with frankly, too many good horses over the years to count.
Key Races-Grade II Remsen, Grade I FL Derby
Analysis-Would be best suited to an inside stalking trip
Fair Odds-10/1
2-Water Mummy (Three-year-old gray gelding / Owner-Downwind Stables)
Although it was probably quite a shock to many at HRP, Water Mummy winning the Grade I KYD was not without its merits, since the gelding was already a Grade I winner at DMR as a juvenile and had finished second in the Grade II Swale, Grade II Risen Star and third in the Grade I Wood Memorial after leading deep into the stretch. But the way he came up the rail was eerily reminiscent of Commanding a few years ago and he failed to get up in time with the shorter distance and tighter turns at PIM, even with an outside stall. He sat farther back at CD than he is probably accustomed to and that might prove be a disadvantage with another inside post but lightning struck once and his backers are hoping that it will strike again.
Mummy only won twice in 12 starts and never claimed anything of value, with his best starters being Grade I winning sprinters Steadyashegoes and Miss The Mummy. Delaware River had an equally uninspired career but has been a decent broodmare with three full siblings as winners along with two others to race, although remotely close to Water Mummy in talent. Owner Downwind Stables took this colt for just over $60.000 off a single published workout and will look to improve on their only PRK finish to date, which was a 4th back in 2014 with Travers and BC Dirt Mile winner Hardline.
Key Races-Grade II Risen Star, Grade I KYD
Analysis-Derby winner has to make magic happen once again
Fair Odds-6/1
3-Rising Light (Three-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Nakamura Stables)
Rising Light was excellent winning a number of lesser races as a two-year-old but only has the one victory in 2016 and was off the board in both the SA Derby and the KYD, leading many to believe that he will be a longshot once again come Saturday. The interesting race to look at is the Rebel where he dropped back in the middle stages, only to re-rally once again and finish a bang-up second, and with an off-track expected and him with two wins from three starts, he might be the one to benefit the best if the rains come in Baltimore.
Sire Laffin Five comes from a long line of good sires, all the way back to Trotters Dream and Five Daddy Five, but only had one career win and has only sired one other stakes winner to date. Relampago Wonder also won a single race in her career and has foaled only sporadically over the years, with this gelding accounting for more than 95% of her total earnings. As for owner Nakamura Stables, they were 11th in 2014 with Biblical Knowledge but 3rd last year with Prince Of Monaco and the hope is that this year could be even bigger with a huge longshot in their corner.
Key Races-Grade III El Camino Real
Analysis-Will enjoy the mud but still needs major improvement
Fair Odds-30/1
4-Carneyman (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Broken Spoke Stables)
No BC Juvenile winner has ever placed in the PRK and few have even made it to the race, choosing to race in the KYD and then the BEL instead, but since Carneyman was excluded from the Roses and will now run for the Black-Eyed Susans instead. Failing to hit the board in any of his starts since KEE and coming in off an eighth in the TAM Derby and a seventh in the BG Stakes, he is one of the new shooters hoping to better his recent efforts and while a single workout might be okay, there is still plenty left to answer for and he remains a longshot in the eyes of many, including this handicapper.
The only auto-generated colt in the field, there is nothing really to go back into history on and for owner Broken Spoke Stables, this will be their first TC starter but not their last; Black Mojo was impressive winning the Grade II Peter Pan and looks primed for a trip to the BEL in a few weeks.
Key Races-Grade I BC Juvenile
Analysis-A shell of his former top class self
Fair Odds-40/1
5-Atomic Twister (Three-year-old black colt / Owner-Blushing Meadows)
Atomic Twister was one of the more talked about horses going into the KYD with a big win in the Grade I Wood Memorial to his credit and while he was able to close into the pace to finish a joint sixth, it was still a regression from his best and he will need to find enough stamina to get into the race earlier this time around. It might be difficult to see him as a win candidate since he always seems to lack that needed momentum to get the job done but post position and past history are on his side in this race, with an expected off-track either being a huge benefit or a huge hindrance.
Rene won a single maiden race over the DMR turf back in 2013 and counts sprinters as his biggest winners to date, with Fly Millenium from the same crop as this Grade I winner. Uncle Ho is a weird name for a dam but she bred three straight winners to start her broodmare career and could see this colt become her third three-time winner to date. Blushing Meadows needs no introduction to the PRK, having finished second in 2009 with Sweet Talkin Jed before pulling an upset for the ages with Mrs Bombastic in 2010; they have been off the board with two starters since but try for a second win with a very logical colt.
Key Races-Grade II Remsen, Grade I Wood Memorial
Analysis-Gets the right post and the right outside speed to chase
Fair Odds-8/1
6-Moment Of Madness (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Mb Stables)
Whether the grueling races of the TC trail got the better of Moment Of Madness in both the LA Derby and the KYD is yet to be seen but this three-time winner from six starts was a closing fifth at FG and then came with a huge middle move to take the lead at CD before evening out to fourth behind runners that were 13th, 11th and 18th at the first call of the race. The only speed to really stay for any part of the finish order, he should get an ideal trip with so many closers to his inside and if he can save some ground into the turn, the cut back in distance will help him ration his speed and make him very playable for the win.
Sire Zero Return is from the same dam as three other stakes winners and while he never won in his two starts, he sired both this colt and Grade I SA Derby winner Dial It In in his first crop to date and already has three juvenile winners this season. Tartan Steel count this colt as her first foal and has set the right tone for her breeding career and comes from a long line of good dams from this owner, who is no stranger to winning this race as well. Twisted Estate won in 2014 for this owner in a mild upset over more fancied stablemate Forever Steel and while two horses only garnered a single fourth last year, they are loaded for bear with three huge entrants this time around.
Key Races-Grade II Risen Star, Grade I KYD
Analysis-The shorter distance and lack of pace make him a huge player
Fair Odds-4/1
7-Missing In Action (Three-year-old bay colt / Owner-Downwind Stables)
Grade III Gotham winner Missing In Action showed excellent speed from yet another outside stall but was unable the added distance in the KYD and will hope to find at least some pace relief and a chance to sit just in back of the pacesetter to his inside. He was the lesser of the two entrants from his stable and ran to his odds at CD and while his rivals look to have moved forward, this colt gets a jockey change and just a little too much to do and that will make him a longshot unless he can handle the off-track better than others.
Creative Officer is a son of stakes winners Jolly Be Great and Stellar Touch and has sired excellent but temperamental runners like Model American, Handcuffed, Hot Cop and recent turf stakes winner Sure Shot Lady. Lotta Letters counts Jolly Be Great as her great-sire, so the family resemblance for longer runners is certainly there and while this colt might find ten-furlongs too far, 9- and 9.5-furlongs might be right up his alley.
Key Races-Grade III Gotham
Analysis-Another who will like the slightly shorter distance
Fair Odds-20/1
8-Dial It In (Three-year-old chestnut colt / Owner-Mb Stables)
Much like his stablemate, Dial It In only has a handful of starts under his belt and while he had more than enough points to race in the KYD, he will held out after winning the SA Derby and comes into the PRK fresh and full of run, especially after two exceptional workouts at PRX and BEL. His third in the SUN Derby came against KYD third place finisher What A Guarantee and over winner Water Mummy but it was his win at SA over The Perfect Day that showed how good he is and new runners have a habit of doing well in this race, especially when they come in off a big victory.
Zero Return has two runners in the PRK field but dam Hollywood Duke is from more of a turf influence with Hollywood Moon as her sire and that could also him to close into the pace like a grass runner with one of the middle posts to help his chances. Owner Mb Stables has been one of the dominant figures at HRP for many years and could add to their legacy with another huge win, and could even complete a trifecta with three big runners from all areas of the gate.
Key Races-Grade I SA Derby
Analysis-Comes in fresh and has the best chance of any new runners
Fair Odds-3/1
9-Coup de Lyon (Three-year-old bay gelding / Owner-Nakamura Stables)
Coup de Lyon just got up to win the Grade III Southwest at OP and was a closing third in the LA Derby but finished well back in both the Wood Memorial and the KYD and will try a third time for owner Nakamura Stables, with really only a muddy track as a slight opportunity for him to improve. Speed ratings have regressed to the lowest levels of anyone in the field and a change in jockey to a little known WO-based rider are cause for concern; he was 60-1 on Derby Day and could be even higher on Saturday with very little chance of winning.
Knowledge Geek never won a race at a pay track but did sire Biblical Knowledge to a start in the 2014 PRK where Graded Stakes earnings as a two-year-old count for much more, and Prince Of Monaco to a third last year as a 27-1 outsider who nearly stole it on the front end. Laffin Partner put this gelding out as her last foal in 2014 and has not been bred since so the idea could be that a TC win could signal her return to breeding with eyes on another big colt or filly down the line.
Key Races-Grade III Southwest
Analysis-Struggled in Grade I company and will continue at this level again
Fair Odds-50/1
10-The Perfect Day (Three-year-old chestnut gelding / Owner-Pan Farms)
CAC Derby and Grade II San Felipe winner The Perfect Day was the subject of much controversy when he was purchased by Pan Farms for a massive $1350.000 and his second in the SA Derby, coupled with a modest ninth in the KYD, earned back some of his price but not nearly enough. The slight regression in speed ratings and his ability to close at the extended Classic distance might mean that he is reaching the upper level of his distance capabilities, yet he takes one more shot at the big boys of the division and should be heavily backed by those who see a rebound in his third start for the barn.
Quench won four straight races going into the 2012 KYD but could only manage a 17th place finish before fading into oblivion; he has changed hands for huge prices in the last year and might be a sire to watch in the future if his runners get to the track. Bee Perfect Swarley comes from an excellent family but only has two winners from five foals and does not have much in the way of past performances to fall back on. For owner Pan Farms, 2016 has been a rebound to their best days of 2011 and 2012 but their PRK record is not very good with only a 13th from Model American in 2013 as their lone start, with plenty of improvement possible from this highly-profiled gelding.
Key Races-Grade II San Felipe, Grade I SA Derby
Analysis-Even in the KYD but could find more middle pace here
Fair Odds-10/1
11-Snowmizer-SCRATCHED
Grade I winner Snowmizer was second in the Wood Memorial but a disappointing last in the KYD and while the PRK was possible, he was a draw-time scratch for owner D J C Racing Stables.
12-Palestinian (Three-year-old black gelding / Owner-Nakamura Stables)
Palestinian seems to be getting tired as the races get longer and longer and in the KYD, he could only manage a sixth place finish after breaking well but failing to get any late momentum while other closers found plenty. He rode a huge six race winning streak into the Fountain Of Youth and FL Derby but ran into Compress, who is not in this field; a change in jockey to Mar Garcia, who likes to get out their and press the pace, could see him closer like he was at GP and that could be beneficial in this slightly shorter event.
Knowledge Geek is one of two sires with multiple runners in the PRK and while dam Aint No Other is a winner, it came in a very short turf race and this is her only foal to run so there is very little to go on in pedigree. Nakamura Stables has three runners in this field and all of them will be considered longshots but coming from different areas of the starting gate means they will not get in each other’s way and could make a formidable trio against their highly fancied foes.
Key Races-Grade III Sham, Grade II Fountain Of Youth
Analysis-Not the same gelding as the races stretch out
Fair Odds-20/1
13-Spring Lover (Three-year-old chestnut colt / Owner-Mb Stables)
Races seemed to keep getting better and better for Spring Lover going into the KYD with a third in the Lewis, a second in the San Felipe and a win in the BG Stakes from the farthest gate at KEE but he got an outside post in the KYD and could only close enough to finish fifth after being 16th at the head of the lane and now, has another outside stall to overcome and a shorter race to run. Another entrant who changes jockey in search of that perfect trip, he worked at BEL faster than his stablemate going five-furlongs and should be good and tight, with an off-track being the only caveat that could stop him from closing against the speed from the middle gates.
Proud Chai is the new up-and-coming sire in the Mb Stables barn, taking after his daddy Chai Latte is producing winners right off the hop, with this colt from his first crop and already a handful of two-year-old winners from his most recent crops. Speeding Hand was a two-time winner going long and produced Grade II Ruffian runner-up Helping Hand, so the stamina pedigree is there and will be tested once again versus rivals he faced at CD but only one from his start at KEE.
Key Races-Grade I BG Stakes, Grade I KYD
Analysis-Needs to get into the race earlier to be truly effective
Fair Odds-8/1
14-Copper Beast-SCRATCHED
AR Derby winner and KYD runner-up Copper Beast got saddled with the outside post in the PRK and was scratched in favour of a race down the line, leaving stablemate The Perfect Day to pick up the mantle in the Second Jewel.
15-Dogs Got Wings (Three-year-old gray gelding / Owner-Grimley)
Dogs Got Wings draws into the PRK with a couple of defections and while his Grade III Spiral was quite good, he faded badly in the KYD and will need a complete re-focus just to hit the top half of the field, especially since he has not been as successful going long as he had sprinting. A workout over the PIM surface was solid but came with very little time to recover and after being a longshot in many of the prep races, he will resume his longshot status once again with the hope that he can move forward over the muddy or sloppy going, like he did at TAM in the shorter Pasco.
Dogs Bachelor Party is an interesting sire who never raced, yet has still produced a huge number of stakes winners including Dogs Grey Goose, Odessa Dog, Taco Belle, champion Short Dog, Dogs Infowarrior, Dogs Dragon and now this gelding. Snow Angelic also failed to make it to the races and has been bred to a number of different sires, with this being her only major foal; it would be amazing to see this three-year-old win a TC race from two parents who never even made it to the track. For owner Grimley, this is their second PRK starter after Mars got the outside gate last year and could only manage sixth; he had been third in the KYD and in much better form than this horse, so the chances of him finishing better are decidedly longer.
Key Races-Grade III Spiral
Analysis-Draws in but still lacks any major chance
Fair Odds-50/1
16-Pentagon-ALSO ELIGIBLE
17-Diplomatic Prince-ALSO ELIGIBLE
18-Cozzene Lyphard (Three-year-old black gelding / Owner-Kingelleinc)
An unusual series of events and scratches and changes to the PRK line-up allow the fourth also-eligible to get into the main body of the field and with Cozzene Lyphard, you get a two time winner who has scored both of his wins at GG and was a decent third in the Grade II Rebel behind Rising Light, who is also in the PRK field. Unfortunately, he set the pace in the AR Derby and backed up through the field to finish tenth in a tough effort and while he has prepped with solid workouts at PIM in preparation, the idea was that he would probably scratch for a race like the Sir Barton, yet gets into the big race and could one of the pacesetters who sets things up for a big late run from a closer.
Cozzene tired to finish off the board in his only career start back in 2010 and while he does have a few good runners in his history, this is really his breakthrough as a sire. Deadhorsesdontrun was also a dud on the racetrack and really has not produced anything of consequence other than this gelding, although a few of her runners have won and she does seem to like this sire. Owner Kingelleinc has been around since 2007 but only owns one Grade II win in their longstanding career and now, gets a chance to shine on one of the biggest stages against a field of superstars, with a gelding who will try to go as fast as he can, as far as he can.
Key Races-Grade II Rebel
Analysis-Widest post does not help his speedy style
Fair Odds-50/1
Here are the picks from my fellow SRF staffers:
Stu
1-Ned Isakoff, 5-Atomic Twister, 2-Water Mummy
Although anything could win I guess. As usual it will be down to the trip they get
La Rosa
1-Ned Isakoff
Broke poorly in the KYD, strong FL Derby and Remsen both at 9f earned a 98 and 97 SRF figure respectively, has some ability on the off track. Should be up front close to the lead.
3-Rising Light
Another who broke very poorly in the KYD, made up lengths though not position, ran very well in SA Derby, has run very well on wet surfaces, will step up a notch on a wet surface which is expected. Should be much closer to the pace in this spot.
2-Water Mummy
The KYD winner was coming into top form leading into KY and proved it with the win and earned a 98 SRF fort he 10f in the process, is fit and should have another good trip, a genuine threat to win it.
8-Dial It In
SA Derby winner didn’t make the KYD but opted for this spot, earned a 98 SRF in SA and has shown improvement in each career start, dangerous for the upset.
Nynl Stables
This will be a tough race to pick given the likelihood of rain in addition to the short turnaround for many of these. I am surprised that so many have returned from the KYD, actually.
I believe the sleeper in here is Dial It In, who won the SA Derby and still might like more distance. He beat Copper Beast in the race everyone starting getting excited about Copper Beast with. He’s got a great conformation, and can handle the slop, I think. He also raced well on shorter rest, albeit for much less at stake, earlier this year. I put him on top.
A
My top four:
8-Dial It In
5-Atomic Twister
12-Palestinian
2-Water Mummy
And now, for my top four selections
4th-Spring Lover
Spring Lover is the Grade I BG Stakes winner who closed like a rocket to finish fifth in the KYD and with some added speed to his inside, should be able to handle the added pressure while appreciating the tight PIM turns. The off-track might be a bit of a question mark but an interim workout was excellent and he comes from a barn that knows how to win this event.
3rd-Water Mummy
KYD winner Water Mummy has all the right tools to score a repeat in the PRK, with an inside post and speed to his outside that will allow returning jockey G L Stevens the opportunity to close along the fence once again. The only issue will be the trip, which has to be perfect in order for him to find the space; if you did not back him at 16-1 in the Wood or 18-1 in the KYD, best not to take him at much lower odds here.
2nd-Moment Of Madness
The experience of both the LA Derby and the KYD will benefit Moment Of Madness more than almost anyone in the entire field and as a colt who made a premature move at CD, he should be much more comfortable under L Saez and find enough in the middle stages to hold on for a bigger share than he did against many of these same foes. The expected muddy surface will be a concern for many facing it for the first time but speed usually holds best when the pace up front is slower in the mud and that plays right into his hands, as do excellent workouts and a campaign light on action but high on efficiency.
1st-Dial It In
Dial It In fits all the criteria of a horse primed for a perfect effort in the PRK, with a top owner bringing him in off a win in a key TC prep but holding him off for a chance to run his best against weakened rivals off their efforts in the KYD. His win in the SA Derby was excellent from a middle post, over a solid field, and his speed ratings show that he is rounding into form; lightly raced horses do not usually do as well in this spot as they should but something is different with this colt and he knows how to win at longer distances, making him a logical choice for the top spot in a very competitive field.
There you have it. The middle jewel in the TC and the chance for Water Mummy to make history off his upset at CD. Congratulations goes out to all involved, and good luck on Saturday!
Triple T Racing 🙂
Categories: Grade I, TC 2015-2020, THE TRIPLE CROWN
